How good the offense is right now

[BobDigital]

The above is the question I will try to answer. The problem is the Pats offense has been rather out of sorts for one reason or another all year long. That doesn't mean we don't have data though. When you look closely it could be argued that this teams offense is by a good margin the better of the two going to the super bowl. Let's take a look at the numbers. But first, what are the numbers that matter? Starts. Who played and how healthy/ready to go were they?

Right now we are going into the super bowl with everyone healthy (minus Gordon). Keeping that in mind what games qualify? We need to find out. But I think the qualified games should include those who are on the team right now

Players that were constant - Brady, Andrews, Thuney, Brown, White, Develin. Hogan, Dorsett. We don't need to do any work on them. I know Brady was banged up for a bit but since I have no clear data on it I'm forced to ignore it. Lets look at the rest of the key players (weeks 11 and 18 were byes).

Edelman - played effectively in weeks 5 6 7 8 9 10, 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20
Gronk - played effectively in weeks 1 2 3 4 5 6 14? 17 19 20
Michel - played effectively in weeks 2? 3 4 5 6 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20
Cannon played effectively in weeks 1 3 4 5 6 9 10 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20
Mason played effectively in weeks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20
Gordon played effectively in weeks 4? 5? 6? 7 8 9 10 12 13 14 15?

I could talk about guys like Allen/Patterson/Burkhead who missed time but I think that is getting away from the point. I will say they are a plus now that they're all healthy (particularly Burkhead who can if nothing else help share the carry load) but not worth looking into.

So how do we determine what the team we have right now is capable of offensively? First we need to find weeks which over lap with everyone we have right now being healthy.

Weeks that are outright disqualified are anything without a key player we have now. So weeks 1 2 3 4 7 8 9 10, 12 13 14 15 and 16 can all be immediately dismissed. They are not relevant in any way to the team we have now.

This leaves us looking at weeks 5 6 17 19 and 20 and debating which should be counted. A lot of it came down to how much effect you think Gordon had during weeks 5 and 6. 17 19 and 20 are clearly all great date points. Lets look at weeks 5 and 6 for Gordon.

Week 5 - He went 2/4 for 50 yards and 1 TD. The one TD pass he caught was a first and 10 at the 34 yard line which was basically a jump ball. He was clearly not integrated with the offense at this point and just used his athletic gifts to make the catch. It should be argued that this play alone should disqualify this game as date. I'm not sure. Take out this play and he really didn't have an impact. Also it was first and 10. (His other catch was also a first and 10 catch BTW) To say they wouldn't have scored a TD from here without Gordon is a hard claim to make. With that being said I think we should hedge our bets but keep the data. Since they were in FG range anyway lets turn this from 7 points to 3 if so inclined. His 16 yard first down catch on another drive also helped lead to a FG. We could take that 3 points off as well if we really want to.

Week 6 - Gordon was still not fully getting the offense yet. That wouldn't happen CLEARLY until week 7. It is hard to say at this point whether he was more of a hindrance or help to be totally honest. 5/9 for 42 yards 4.67 YPT. He only was better as a WR than Devlin and Michel that day from a targets to production perspective. He's played in this game were a first and 10 for 12 yards (this drive lead to no points and KC would score a FG resetting field position). His next catch was a 2nd and 16 on which they got 6 yards. (The next pass would lead to a 3rd and 10 Edelman TD for 16 yards). The next 2 Gordon passes would be a 2nd and 6 for 11 and a 1st and 10 for 9. This drive would lead to a FG. The last catch a 2nd and 9 for 4 yards which was the last positive play before a FG. It moved them from the 36 to 32 yard line. So if you want to give no benefit of a doubt turn the TD into a FG and take off the 2 FGs.

Being the least generous we can possibly be we have our base data line for the offense as it is now (with game data factoring in only the players we have). Also Van Noy had a defensive TD against the Jets. May as well take that out too since we are being as ungenerous as possible.

Week 5 Indy 38 (-7) Week 6 KC 43 (-10) week 17 Jets 38 (-7) week 19 LAC 41 week 20 KC 37 (31 in regulation).

So if we were to go to the trouble to take out over time AND any drive in which Gordon actually contributed here is what we are left with. 5 games in which the offense scored 31 33 31 41 and 31 points in regulation. This averages out to 33.4PPG (in regulation) with the offense we are fielding now. We came to that number giving no benefit of a doubt to our offense to do anything on any of the scoring drives Gordon had a clear impact on.

Simply put. Pats offense > Rams offense right now.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

Simply put. Pats offense > Rams offense right now.

Thanks!

 

[sb1]

The offensive line is playing at the level of a Super Bowl championship team. That’s what’s driving this offense right now imo.

One more game fellas.

 

[IllegalContact]

The offensive line is playing at the level of a Super Bowl championship team. That’s what’s driving this offense right now imo.

One more game fellas.

Shaq Mason is the perfect dancing partner for Aaron Donald......I would not be surprised if they line up Donald somewhere else, but he makes a name for himself by being quicker than the typical bigger slower RG

 

[jah]

The above is the question I will try to answer. The problem is the Pats offense has been rather out of sorts for one reason or another all year long. That doesn't mean we don't have data though. When you look closely it could be argued that this teams offense is by a good margin the better of the two going to the super bowl. I mean a full TD margin better! Let's take a look at the numbers. But first, what are the numbers that matter? Starts. Who played and how healthy/ready to go were they?

Right now we are going into the super bowl with everyone healthy (minus Gordon). Keeping that in mind what games qualify? We need to find out. But I think the qualified games should include those who are on the team right now

Players that were constant - Brady, Andrews, Thuney, Brown, White, Develin. Hogan, Dorsett. We don't need to do any work on them. I know Brady was banged up for a bit but since I have no clear data on it I'm forced to ignore it. Lets look at the rest of the key players (weeks 11 and 18 were byes).

Edelman - played effectively in weeks 5 6 7 8 9 10, 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20
Gronk - played effectively in weeks 1 2 3 4 5 6 14? 17 19 20
Michel - played effectively in weeks 2? 3 4 5 6 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20
Cannon played effectively in weeks 1 3 4 5 6 9 10 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20
Mason played effectively in weeks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20
Gordon played effectively in weeks 4? 5? 6? 7 8 9 10 12 13 14 15?

I could talk about guys like Allen/Patterson/Burkhead who missed time but I think that is getting away from the point. I will say they are a plus now that they're all healthy now (particularly Burkhead who can if nothing else help share the carry load) but not worth looking into.

So how do we determine what the team we have right now is capable of offensively? First we need to find weeks which over lap with everyone we have right now being healthy.

Weeks that are outright disqualified are anything without a key player we have now. So weeks 1 2 3 4 7 8 9 10, 12 13 14 15 and 16 can all be immediately dismissed. They are not relevant in any way to the team we have now.

This leaves us looking at weeks 5 6 17 19 and 20 and debating which should be counted. A lot of it came down to how much effective you think Gordon had during weeks 5 and 6. 17 19 and 20 are clearly all great date points. Lets look at weeks 5 and 6 for Gordon.

Week 5 - He went 2/4 for 50 yards and 1 TD. The one TD pass he caught was a first and 10 at the 34 yard line which was basically a jump ball. He was clearly not integrated with the offense at this point and just used his athletic gifts to make the catch. It should be argued that this play alone should disqualify this game as date. I'm not sure. Take out this play and he really didn't have an impact. Also it was first and 10. (His other catch was also a first and 10 catch BTW) To say they wouldn't have scored a TD from here without Gordon is a hard claim to make. With that being said I think we should hedge our bets but keep the data. Since they were in FG range anyway lets turn this from 7 points to 3 if so inclined. His 16 yard first down catch on another drive also helped lead to a FG. We could take that 3 points off as well if we really want to.

Week 6 - Gordon was still not fully getting the offense yet. That wouldn't happen CLEARLY until week 7. It is hard to say at this point whether he was more of a hindrance or help to be totally honest. 5/9 for 42 yards 4.67 YPT. He only was better as a WR than Devlin and Michel that day from a targets to production perspective. He's played in this game were a first and 10 for 12 yards (this drive lead to no points and KC would score a FG resetting field position). His next catch was a 2nd and 16 on which they got 6 yards. (The next pass would lead to a 3rd and 10 Edelman TD for 16 yards). The next 2 Gordon passes would be a 2nd and 6 for 11 and a 1st and 10 for 9. This drive would lead to a FG. The last catch a 2nd and 9 for 4 yards which was the last positive play before a FG. It moved them from the 36 to 32 yard line. So if you want to give no benefit of a doubt turn the TD into a FG and take off the 2 FGs.

Being the least generous we can possibly be we have our base data line for the offense as it is now (with game data factoring in only the players we have). Also Van Noy had a defensive TD against the Jets. May as well take that out too since we are being as ungenerous as possible.

Week 5 Indy 38 (-7) Week 6 KC 43 (-10) week 17 Jets 38 (-7) week 19 LAC 41 week 20 KC 37 (31 in regulation).

So if we were to go to the trouble to take out over time AND any drive in which Gordon actually contributed here is what we are left with. 5 games in which the offense scored 31 33 31 41 and 31 points in regulation. This averages out to 33.4PPG (in regulation) with the offense we are fielding now. We came to that number giving no benefit of a doubt to our offense to do anything on any of the scoring drives Gordon had a clear impact on.

Simply put. Pats offense > Rams offense right now.

How is it valid to discount nearly every Patriots game but take the Rams season averages at face value? I get that we're healthier, but still.

 

[Hyped]

Dunno, it's all about the match ups. Both offenses don't play one another.

Both defenses are weak vs. the run and both offenses run the ball very well.

It could be the kind of game where both teams only have 7-8 possessions each in total and make the most of it. I think we will be seeing a lot of 5 minute plus drives from both teams....churning out yards on the ground and moving the chains...

 

[Tb12goesinya]

They are similar to the super bowl team last year which had a 505 yard passer, and the year before which scored 31 unanswered. Great offense.

 

[50-yard-line]

Playoff Pats O is superb because of Jules and the OL.

I have no doubt that if Edelman went to the SB last year, the outcome would have been different. He's the difference maker right now.

Big test coming up for the O is how Thuney/Andrews/Mason handle Donald and Suh.

 

[BobDigital]

How is it valid to discount nearly every Patriots game but take the Rams season averages at face value? I get that we're healthier, but still.

The Rams were better on offense early in the year. If I were to do such a write up on them it would only increase our advantage. Since the bye week they have been out of sorts offensively.

 

[ALP]

Shaq Mason is the perfect dancing partner for Aaron Donald......I would not be surprised if they line up Donald somewhere else, but he makes a name for himself by being quicker than the typical bigger slower RG

you sure donald doesn't line up over the LG? (so thuney)

i could have swore that's what i saw agaisnt NO

 

[TB_Helmet]

The Rams were better on offense early in the year. If I were to do such a write up on them it would only increase our advantage. Since the bye week they have been out of sorts offensively.

That's sort of what I thought but since the bye week they have scored:

15, 23, 31, 48, 30, 26.

I think they really just had that lull against the Bears and Eagles (that's the 15 and 23) which has created a false narrative that they've fallen off. The 31 and 48 are in line with the rest of their season.The 30 is against a really good Cowboys D (whose defensive signals they may have had) and the 26 is in the Superdome; their offense looked good after it came alive after the fake punt.

I think it all hinges on Gurley's health and ability. If he is close to full strength, they'll be at the level they were at the beginning of the season despite missing Kupp and will be a challenge. If they play like they did against the Saints for the first 1.5 quarters then the Pats will roll.

 

[TB_Helmet]

Also I appreciate your work in the OP but I don't know if it's fair to take weeks 5 and 6 and say 'this is the same offense we have now and they scored a ton of points so we're in good shape.'

In any season, week 5 is light years away from the Super Bowl and the team evolves over the course of the year even if the personnel is the same. This is especially true with New England during this run. As Brady says, nothing matters until after Thanksgiving. I think that the most predictive metric about how the offense will perform is how they've done over the last month, from Buffalo through KC. McCourty said that the Bills game was when the switch was flipped and that seems about right to me. i.e. we averaged 33.5 in regulation....which is almost identical to your result, so I guess I'm not really arguing with your conclusions

 

[Angelpats]

This is the type of offense that helps against good pass rushing teams. Its good to have a deep threat but the time it takes to develop usually results in pressures and sacks. We would have won all our Super Bowls if Edelman was playing.

 

[Brick27]

you sure donald doesn't line up over the LG? (so thuney)

i could have swore that's what i saw agaisnt NO

Saw this on Twitter, for what it’s worth.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

Aaron Donald possesses Cat like quickness

 

[Uptown]

The above is the question I will try to answer. The problem is the Pats offense has been rather out of sorts for one reason or another all year long. That doesn't mean we don't have data though. When you look closely it could be argued that this teams offense is by a good margin the better of the two going to the super bowl. I mean a full TD margin better! Let's take a look at the numbers. But first, what are the numbers that matter? Starts. Who played and how healthy/ready to go were they?

Right now we are going into the super bowl with everyone healthy (minus Gordon). Keeping that in mind what games qualify? We need to find out. But I think the qualified games should include those who are on the team right now

Players that were constant - Brady, Andrews, Thuney, Brown, White, Develin. Hogan, Dorsett. We don't need to do any work on them. I know Brady was banged up for a bit but since I have no clear data on it I'm forced to ignore it. Lets look at the rest of the key players (weeks 11 and 18 were byes).

Edelman - played effectively in weeks 5 6 7 8 9 10, 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20
Gronk - played effectively in weeks 1 2 3 4 5 6 14? 17 19 20
Michel - played effectively in weeks 2? 3 4 5 6 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20
Cannon played effectively in weeks 1 3 4 5 6 9 10 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20
Mason played effectively in weeks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20
Gordon played effectively in weeks 4? 5? 6? 7 8 9 10 12 13 14 15?

I could talk about guys like Allen/Patterson/Burkhead who missed time but I think that is getting away from the point. I will say they are a plus now that they're all healthy now (particularly Burkhead who can if nothing else help share the carry load) but not worth looking into.

So how do we determine what the team we have right now is capable of offensively? First we need to find weeks which over lap with everyone we have right now being healthy.

Weeks that are outright disqualified are anything without a key player we have now. So weeks 1 2 3 4 7 8 9 10, 12 13 14 15 and 16 can all be immediately dismissed. They are not relevant in any way to the team we have now.

This leaves us looking at weeks 5 6 17 19 and 20 and debating which should be counted. A lot of it came down to how much effective you think Gordon had during weeks 5 and 6. 17 19 and 20 are clearly all great date points. Lets look at weeks 5 and 6 for Gordon.

Week 5 - He went 2/4 for 50 yards and 1 TD. The one TD pass he caught was a first and 10 at the 34 yard line which was basically a jump ball. He was clearly not integrated with the offense at this point and just used his athletic gifts to make the catch. It should be argued that this play alone should disqualify this game as date. I'm not sure. Take out this play and he really didn't have an impact. Also it was first and 10. (His other catch was also a first and 10 catch BTW) To say they wouldn't have scored a TD from here without Gordon is a hard claim to make. With that being said I think we should hedge our bets but keep the data. Since they were in FG range anyway lets turn this from 7 points to 3 if so inclined. His 16 yard first down catch on another drive also helped lead to a FG. We could take that 3 points off as well if we really want to.

Week 6 - Gordon was still not fully getting the offense yet. That wouldn't happen CLEARLY until week 7. It is hard to say at this point whether he was more of a hindrance or help to be totally honest. 5/9 for 42 yards 4.67 YPT. He only was better as a WR than Devlin and Michel that day from a targets to production perspective. He's played in this game were a first and 10 for 12 yards (this drive lead to no points and KC would score a FG resetting field position). His next catch was a 2nd and 16 on which they got 6 yards. (The next pass would lead to a 3rd and 10 Edelman TD for 16 yards). The next 2 Gordon passes would be a 2nd and 6 for 11 and a 1st and 10 for 9. This drive would lead to a FG. The last catch a 2nd and 9 for 4 yards which was the last positive play before a FG. It moved them from the 36 to 32 yard line. So if you want to give no benefit of a doubt turn the TD into a FG and take off the 2 FGs.

Being the least generous we can possibly be we have our base data line for the offense as it is now (with game data factoring in only the players we have). Also Van Noy had a defensive TD against the Jets. May as well take that out too since we are being as ungenerous as possible.

Week 5 Indy 38 (-7) Week 6 KC 43 (-10) week 17 Jets 38 (-7) week 19 LAC 41 week 20 KC 37 (31 in regulation).

So if we were to go to the trouble to take out over time AND any drive in which Gordon actually contributed here is what we are left with. 5 games in which the offense scored 31 33 31 41 and 31 points in regulation. This averages out to 33.4PPG (in regulation) with the offense we are fielding now. We came to that number giving no benefit of a doubt to our offense to do anything on any of the scoring drives Gordon had a clear impact on.

Simply put. Pats offense > Rams offense right now.

Yep. And RIGHT NOW is all that matters.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Saw this on Twitter, for what it’s worth.

Interesting.

I think Thuney is pretty good now but he clearly will need to have the game of his life.

 

[Uptown]

.

 

[Uptown]

NE has averaged 183.8 rushing ypg over the last 4 games & 165.5 ypg in January. Develin is SO underrated.

Can we say DOMINANT??

Even more impressive is the fact that opposing defenses know that we are running when Develin is on the field, yet they cannot stop it.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Aaron Donald possesses Cat like quickness

That’s a big cat...