How about a position by position breakdown of why the defense is struggling?

[Deus Irae]

The DTs is just missing on draft picks so far. Brown hasn't made the jump we hoped and Easley was a bust. It was not like they didn't try.

What about letting both Wilfork and Hicks move on?

 

[Deus Irae]

BTW, I'm asking questions of some people in an attempt to get a full discussion going, and I really appreciate that those people are participating and taking it seriously. People here complain that we don't really talk the ins and outs of the game anymore, so I'm trying to get a thread that does a bit more of that, without it just being 2 or 3 of us going back and forth.

 

[SVN]

I think our DLine is unsettled and doesnt really scares anybody. We fix it , this defense becomes much better.Imagine the jets front 4 with this defense.

 

[zimmy]

Main problems as I see them

1. Lack of depth on interior line. Brown and Branch have been playing 70%+ of the snaps instead of 40-50% and they are wearing down. We had the money to keep Hicks (not sure how he has got on in Chicago)
2. Drop in the level of play of the DEs. Long is better off as your 4th DE only playing on passing downs. Nink seems to be potentially nearing the end - definitely not an every down starter now. Sheard's poor play has meant we have felt the Jones loss more than expected.
3. Lack of coverage ability of LBs/safeties. Explains their interest in some smaller linebackers in the last draft. Really think this is an area to focus on in the off season.
4. 2nd/3rd cornerback a problem.
5. Poor trades. Rowe, Mingo (and potentially Van Not but jury out). We traded fairly valuable pieces for these players and neither has shown much. If we were gonna see something from Mingo it would have happened already. He has gone down the Bostic route.

I'm less concerned about the corners. I don't think many corners in this league would hold up for too long with the time we are giving QBs. Having said that, it would be nice to see Cyrus Jones take some steps forward. Front 7 seems to be the main place where we need improvement imo.

 

[BobDigital]

What about letting both Wilfork and Hicks move on?

Wilfork wasn't doing so hot here and I don't mind them moving on from him and his salary. You can't just hold on to big salaries incase your top young draft picks don't work out. You need to be sure you invest everywhere and not just 1 spot. Letting Hicks go was tough and maybe they should have kept him but I understand why they didn't at the time. That one was unfortunate and i think we should have held on to him. That one is on BB but you can't be right 100% of the time.

 

[deroc5050]

PFW guys think its contract related, a lot of guys have contracts up this year and apparently they think between the game plans and the schemes guys might not be all that happy this year. Add in shipping out a guy in Jamie Collins who was apparently respected and well liked.. I don't know hopefully the defense stops getting paranoid about their next contracts and starts playing smart football.

I have no idea if thats what the issue is but they are human beings and obviously want to get paid.

 

[n6249c]

We've played an awful lot of mobile QBs, so that distorts the picture some. Pass rush obviously harder against them and so we have elected to play more passively and conservatively. Nink not back to his old self - either age or rust. Don't have the one-on-one pass rushers so will need to scheme more - safety blitzes and the like. But I think there will be enough there for an adequate rush.

Biggest problem has been covering wheel routes and crossing patterns and inconsistent run defense.

Don't yet have a Collins replacement, and maybe none to be found on the roster. So Belichick will have to adapt - perhaps play McCourty and Chung closer to the line and leave Harmon back at free safety.

Right now Belichick is still experimenting - expect that to continue for the next few games - still quite a few new combinations possible here. When Hightower is off the field the LBs seem clueless - just lack of experience I think. And it's not like Hightower played so well this last game either. If we see a bunch of McClellin again off-the-line next time up it must mean Belichick thinks there is something there.

Not worried about CB or safeties.

Simply been unlucky on turnovers. Nothing to be done about that but wait for their luck to change. At some point the forced fumbles will lead to turnovers.

Agree. Particularly about Belichick experimenting. For years I've had this mental image of BB in a white lab coat doing a mad scientist thing pouring flasks and test tubes together to see what happens during the season. Then when he knows what he has and how they'll respond he's ready to concoct his post season game plans. Some years injuries strike and he can't do what he wants to do, or bad bounces and bad calls and good opponents overcome his best attempts. But I'm certainly not going to panic before Thanksgiving over deficiencies in a team that's got one of the best records in the NFL and is clearly poised for a first round bye and very likely to have HFA all the way to the Super Bowl (Oakland notwithstanding).

I have no problem letting Wilfork go. I'm glad Big Vince is having a good year but the risk is too high for his salary to be a good deal. I do think the Pats could use his locker room leadership, but still not enough to give me s problem seeing him go.

Hicks I had hoped would stay, his contract just got too rich for the team budget. Too bad. Wish it were otherwise. But it is what it is. C'est le vie.

 

[ashley]

I think losing Hicks has hurt more than anyone would have thought. In addition to losing him, we also lost Jones and Collins from our defense.

I also think the lack of a consistent pass rush, whether it's from our ends or from our interior tackles, has really hurt our ability to get off the field on 3rd down.

Our cb play after Butler has been very inconsistent as well. We also now have problems covering the opposing teams running back and our linebacker play aside from Hightower is a cause for concern too.

We also don't turn the ball over. We rank 27th in the league in takeaways and lack that difference maker on defense. I'm really hoping we can get a few turnovers in the next game or two.

 

[patfanken]

The DTs is just missing on draft picks so far. Brown hasn't made the jump we hoped and Easley was a bust. It was not like they didn't try.

I have to disagree here. First Brown has been very good this season. There is a reason he gets the most DT snaps. Your observation that he "hasn't made the jump" just isn't fair.

The Easley pick was a very good one that didn't turn out well. Nothing Easley did on the field for his first 2 years were bad. He was every bit the impactful player we had hoped he'd be when healthy. He's not on the team because of issues that I'm sure go far beyond his on field play. (and I can speculate about them some time for you)

You can make a good pick at the time, that turns out not to work out, or not work out as well as you'd like, for a lot of reasons that have nothing to do with the pick itself.

The "inside push" DT is one of those newer hybrid kind of positions that have come into favor as the game evolves. They are very rare and when you have a shot at one you have to take that chance because the rewards if you hit on one are massive.

BB tried for YEARS to get his "Gronk" of a TE, and drafted some very good ones in Watson and Graham, etc, but never really hit on the 'one', until he got lucky with Gronk and you can see what a difference he makes in the offense. I have no doubt that BB will take every shot he can at finding the next Aaron Donald or Micheal Bennett, until he gets lucky and finds him.

 

[long distance]

However you want to break this down .. and however late in the season it might be ..
2016 Pats D is .. still a work in progress.

There were a lot of baffling personnel moves all year.
The only one I think was mismanaged is Anthony Johnson. Might sound strange because most people here would have him of no importance since they have him as “least“ talented but the fact is he did show up in preseason and regular season and knowing he could be snatched from PS they should've kept him on 53.

There are no Hicks, Easleys or even Anthony Johnsons walking the street at this point.

Like Mayo said today: The mantra that all players are treated equally here is (of course) not true. They have a lot of patience with guys like Freeny and McClellin f.e. (having payed 5M already for McC has something to do with it i guess). They didn't have that with A Johnson who showed at least some flashes of interior rush and more importantly infused a lot of energy to the whole line. I am not a “stat“ guy but the numbers with him on the field were surprisingly positive. They could have easily brought him back in when they traded Derby and the next thing he was gone.

Lets have a look at 53 personnel change on D since the start of the season.
IN: Hamilton (from PS), Ninkovich (from SUS), Grissom (from PS), Van Noy + Mingo just before the start of the season.
OUT: Freeny (IR), A Johnson, Collins

Lots of movements at DL, LB positions (also DT/DE Hughes was in for a couple of days, playing for Tampa now) show that BB was not happy the way this two positions played out in the preseason. The guys who came in are good depth additions but not key playmakers.

With the bye week the second sort of preseason started with one big difference - no trade window and not much time left.

Still looking forward to see what they will do with what they have. SF game showed baby steps in the right direction - decide for 3 CBs and stick with them - I hope this is now settled and start to glue and improve. Something similar is needed for LB (DE will remain in rotation anyway):
High knows his plays - if he will try to do more he will do less.
Roberts showed what he can do and what he can't (yet) so I guess they'll put him back in his comfort zone.
McClellin doesn't look good to most people but BB thinks differently.
Van Noy showed he can be disruptive and productive in pass rush but remains to be seen if he can add something in coverage. He clearly is before Mingo. Mingo was less effective but it was late in the game. Hopefully he gets some chances in coverage.
Ninkovich looked better as OLB to me this year so maybe he sees more of that when/if Sheard comes back.

Lots of options here. Time to decide for the ones to go with.
_

Bottom line: This D is a good enough unit and not struggling so much as to cost team games. But BB clearly wants them to step up a bit, consolidate for the playoffs. I have no doubt they can do that. Once the new D looks and personnel crystalise, players will get more comfortable and be able to execute and communicate better. They will make better plays, bigger plays and that will bring more energy, fire. Not to mention motivation of playoffs just around the corner ..

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Some statistics here - note Van Noy has 6 pressures on 12 snaps, and Flowers has worse stats than his reputation might suggest:

 

[long distance]

Main problems as I see them

1. Lack of depth on interior line. Brown and Branch have been playing 70%+ of the snaps instead of 40-50% and they are wearing down. We had the money to keep Hicks (not sure how he has got on in Chicago)
2. Drop in the level of play of the DEs. Long is better off as your 4th DE only playing on passing downs. Nink seems to be potentially nearing the end - definitely not an every down starter now. Sheard's poor play has meant we have felt the Jones loss more than expected.
3. Lack of coverage ability of LBs/safeties. Explains their interest in some smaller linebackers in the last draft. Really think this is an area to focus on in the off season.
4. 2nd/3rd cornerback a problem.
5. Poor trades. Rowe, Mingo (and potentially Van Not but jury out). We traded fairly valuable pieces for these players and neither has shown much. If we were gonna see something from Mingo it would have happened already. He has gone down the Bostic route.

I'm less concerned about the corners. I don't think many corners in this league would hold up for too long with the time we are giving QBs. Having said that, it would be nice to see Cyrus Jones take some steps forward. Front 7 seems to be the main place where we need improvement imo.

Mingo has shown a lot as ST player and that might be the main goal BB had for him. Mingo is key factor of the success of this year's ST unit after struggles last year and that units importance will grow in the playoffs so to me a low 5th is a good deal for Mingo. And despite not becoming a Collins replacement now it is still early to say what the future has in store for him at LB.

 

[Froob]

PFW guys think its contract related, a lot of guys have contracts up this year and apparently they think between the game plans and the schemes guys might not be all that happy this year. Add in shipping out a guy in Jamie Collins who was apparently respected and well liked.. I don't know hopefully the defense stops getting paranoid about their next contracts and starts playing smart football.

I have no idea if thats what the issue is but they are human beings and obviously want to get paid.

I would think they'd play their best ball on a contract year. Mike Lombardi agreed and said it's a nice situation to have so many contract year guys because they should be at their best.

 

[long distance]

Let's see how they improve on that on Sunday vs Forte & co ..

 

[Nunchucks]

Let's see how they improve on that on Sunday vs Forte & co ..

This is exactly what my thought was. The lbs are not covering well. They are getting killed right now by rbs out of the backfield. This used to be a fairly solid group for that, not lately.

The corners are close, besides some zone coverage responsibilities...but the lbs are getting killed.

Probably need to see more big nickel groups.

 

[Patjew]

IMO it's the LBs (and LB/DE guys like Nink) that make the engine of a BB defense run. And the Pats LBs are below average this year... Putrid minus Hightower. They can't cover AT ALL or get home on the rush or tackle well. Fix them (and you 99% can't this year) and you fix the D.

 

[farn]

Maybe Collins & Chandler Jones were not nearly what some on this board thought (or hoped) they were. I can accept that. But even if they weren't as strong as some suggested/thought, you could still count on them to make a big play here & there.

I think this D is better than the "sky is falling" crew, but weaker than the "top 3 D in points allowed" gang. And I am very concerned that they'll be fine - until NE meets a true contender in a January playoff game. In the end : if the O can compensate for a few bad 3rd and longs the D seems to struggle with, they'll win. But, Seattle showed that a very good team can take them out. Even more troubling : in Foxborough on a short week for Seattle after travelling so far...

Who are the playmakers ? I see Butler & HT. And ultimately, my fear is that the lack of Big play performers will/could be the Patriots' undoing. Position, by position, I worry about all the spots not manned by HT, Butler, or DMc (and maybe Brown).

 

[long distance]

IMO it's the LBs (and LB/DE guys like Nink) that make the engine of a BB defense run. And the Pats LBs are below average this year... Putrid minus Hightower. They can't cover AT ALL or get home on the rush or tackle well. Fix them (and you 99% can't this year) and you fix the D.

Its good to keep in mind that the only TD drive the Pats D gave to 49ers (not counting the last one in garbage time) was the one where Hightower was out for the bigger part of it. So as long as Hightower is healthy there is every chance that the LB corps with some S mix can be fixed just good enough.

Here's a great concise all-22 film review on D by Dussault:

Patriots-49ers Film Review: Defense Edition

 

[mosslost]

BTW, I'm asking questions of some people in an attempt to get a full discussion going, and I really appreciate that those people are participating and taking it seriously. People here complain that we don't really talk the ins and outs of the game anymore, so I'm trying to get a thread that does a bit more of that, without it just being 2 or 3 of us going back and forth.

The D is doing well

 

[hovis]

The biggest problem is that BB isn't a fortune teller. Otherwise, maybe he'd have kept CJ and shipped Collins off. Then maybe we'd have enough of a pass rush to force some mistakes.

Speaking of which, can this defense get a god damned turnover?