Football Outsiders' new pass rusher eval

[patchick]

There' already a thread on this in the main forum, but they're not looking at it from the draftnik perspective...

Football Outsiders has worked up a new stat to predict NFL pass-rushing success:
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Introducing SackSEER

Among board favorites, Hughes comes out well, Graham not. (And for those who never understood all the Connor Barwin love, note that he had the highest score of any player in the past 3 years.)

Any thoughts?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

How well do they play the run?

 

[Marqui]

(And for those who never understood all the Connor Barwin love, note that he had the highest score of any player in the past 3 years.)

There's more to being a complete pass rusher than just sacks..

 

[JMarr]

How well do they play the run?

If the Pats are moving towards more of a 4 man front [as you have said they might], this becomes less important.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

If the Pats are moving towards more of a 4 man front [as you have said they might], this becomes less important.

Actually, it doesn't. My prognostication calls for more 40 fronts, but no change from two-gap, read & react techniques.

 

[JMarr]

Actually, it doesn't. My prognostication calls for more 40 fronts, but no change from two-gap, read & react techniques.

I'll defer to your knowledge. Just trying to justify scenarios where BB will draft my superbinky Hughes.

 

[sbpatfan]

It would be interesting to see what Crable's SackSEER numbers would be if his measureables were crunched.

And searching through the comments I found this, not sure if it's true or not but the guy who said this claims to be the one who created SackSEER.

Since there is some linking going on to the earlier model, I just wanted to clarify about what the updates have to say about 2009. If Orakpo was in this draft, his projection would fall just about between Hughes and Morgan. Also, the adjustments that I have made downgrade Maybin considerably, because they better account for regression to the mean following his breakout sophomore season.

Last year's draft had a lot of quirky prospects with high-ish projections. You had two redshirt sophomores (which had never happened in the data set before), a senior defensive end that played tight end for three years, and a senior "elephant" backer who had played a more traditional 4-3 linebacker role in his first three seasons. I feel better projecting this class because we have all straight-up juniors and seniors, and lots of players with projections on the low side.

Good news for Hughes lovers, I guess.

 

[dryheat44]

I've been on the FootballOutsiders boards even longer than I've been here, but I'm not a big fan of this data....even if it does mesh well with my evaluations (Hughes good, P-P terrible). In fact, I'm a little bit shocked that it's on the site (it's not by a regular writer there, but a guest column), as it seems to be some pretty bad analysis...kind of like taking the last 5 Nobel Peace Prize Winners, finding some commonalities, and then looking for people in the populace who share those traits and claiming that they're likely to win the Nobel.

I won't even get into what criteria he used as being important, i.e. why high jump and not broad jump? Why shuttle, but not 10 yard 40 split or 3 cone?

 

[patchick]

I've been on the FootballOutsiders boards even longer than I've been here, but I'm not a big fan of this data....even if it does mesh well with my evaluations (Hughes good, P-P terrible). In fact, I'm a little bit shocked that it's on the site (it's not by a regular writer there, but a guest column), as it seems to be some pretty bad analysis...kind of like taking the last 5 Nobel Peace Prize Winners, finding some commonalities, and then looking for people in the populace who share those traits and claiming that they're likely to win the Nobel.

I won't even get into what criteria he used as being important, i.e. why high jump and not broad jump? Why shuttle, but not 10 yard 40 split or 3 cone?

Yeah, it sounds fishy to me, too. The very vague description of the methodology behind it sends up red flags -- what data did he try before settling on this odd handful of measurements? And could it really have escaped his notice that his historical 12 top players are REALLY TALL? Suggs and Babin are the shortest at 6'3", the 10 others 6'4"-6'7".

 

[bucky]

Yeah, it sounds fishy to me, too. The very vague description of the methodology behind it sends up red flags -- what data did he try before settling on this odd handful of measurements? And could it really have escaped his notice that his historical 12 top players are REALLY TALL? Suggs and Babin are the shortest at 6'3", the 10 others 6'4"-6'7".

As I posted in another thread, not worth the ink/paper it would cost to print out the article.

Completely agree with dryheat's opinion on the underlying data for this analysis, as well as the comments by Marquis and Box that sacks in and of themselves are a meaningless statistic.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

How well do they play the run?

While I believe wholeheartedly in the stat, I have to agree with BOR. BB said he does not want guys on his defense that can not tackle. So how do these prospects play the run? Set the edge? Stack and shed?

 

[MaineMan]

There' already a thread on this in the main forum, but they're not looking at it from the draftnik perspective...

Football Outsiders has worked up a new stat to predict NFL pass-rushing success:
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Introducing SackSEER

Among board favorites, Hughes comes out well, Graham not. (And for those who never understood all the Connor Barwin love, note that he had the highest score of any player in the past 3 years.)

Any thoughts?

This might be overstating the case a bit. The difference between Hughes and Graham comes down to 5.5 sacks per season versus 4.4. My guess is that, if either of these guys lines up opposite another decent, established pass-rusher (e.g., TBC, assuming that he continues at his 2009 performance level), they'll exceed their projections.

Meanwhile, their "Kirwan Explosiveness Indexes" are roughly equal (around 72). Graham has the quicker first step (something he's been noted for) and, at about 15 pounds heavier, has nearly the same agility scores as Hughes. Graham has also been noted for his consistency in gaining/maintaining/effectively-using leverage, as well as for his large repertoire of hand moves.

Just to be clear, when FO speaks, I sit up and pay attention. Their analyses are an invaluable part of understanding a player's real success or lack thereof (often radically different from their raw stats). But I also believe that no single metric/analysis is sufficient, even theirs.

I like both Graham and Hughes. Hughes may have more long-term upside, but Graham, I believe, will have much more immediate impact.

BTW - I think FO's analysis of Kindle is very generous. It's also gratifying to see their semi-endorsement of the "sleeper" we've all known about for awhile - Te'o-Nesheim, whose KEI is an outstanding 76 and whose agility drill numbers are easily among the best for OLBs.

 

[furry]

Sure it's been said a million times on the other thread but that view of JPP is daming