There' already a thread on this in the main forum, but they're not looking at it from the draftnik perspective...
Football Outsiders has worked up a new stat to predict NFL pass-rushing success:
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Introducing SackSEER
Among board favorites,
Hughes comes out well, Graham not. (And for those who never understood all the Connor Barwin love, note that he had the highest score of any player in the past 3 years.)
Any thoughts?
This might be overstating the case a bit. The difference between Hughes and Graham comes down to 5.5 sacks per season versus 4.4. My guess is that, if either of these guys lines up opposite another decent, established pass-rusher (e.g., TBC, assuming that he continues at his 2009 performance level), they'll exceed their projections.
Meanwhile, their "Kirwan Explosiveness Indexes" are roughly equal (around 72). Graham has the quicker first step (something he's been noted for) and, at about 15 pounds heavier, has nearly the same agility scores as Hughes. Graham has also been noted for his consistency in gaining/maintaining/effectively-using leverage, as well as for his large repertoire of hand moves.
Just to be clear, when FO speaks, I sit up and pay attention. Their analyses are an invaluable part of understanding a player's
real success or lack thereof (often radically different from their raw stats). But I also believe that no single metric/analysis is sufficient, even theirs.
I like both Graham and Hughes. Hughes may have more long-term upside, but Graham, I believe, will have much more immediate impact.
BTW - I think FO's analysis of Kindle is very generous. It's also gratifying to see their semi-endorsement of the "sleeper" we've all known about for awhile - Te'o-Nesheim, whose KEI is an outstanding 76 and whose agility drill numbers are easily among the best for OLBs.