Football Outsiders DVOA ratings thru week 4

[everlong]

But that is exactly the point I was making. When you are losing and on defense, a TD puts you down 2 possessions which is a troubling situation. The Pats defense hasn't faced this yet. I think you play differently when losing and defending a 3rd and 7. Giving up that conversion means you are closer to giving up that crushing score and you are sucking time/field position from your offense. On the flip side, gaining 6.5 yards results in a punt and not the certainty of a 4th down attempt the Pats often face now. That is context the statistics abstract away.

Your initial quote was they hadn't trailed as a defense for a single snap not that they hadn't been down two plus scores. I agree with your basic context theory but they in fact had trailed.

Correct, but how do you do that? The Pats and Jets were up on the Raiders in consecutive weeks. The Jets blitzed relentlessly even though the Raiders (0-8 on 3rd down) showed no inclination for sustaining a drive. The Raiders played off this and busted big plays outside to turn a 10 point deficit into a 10 point win against a "championship" defense. The Pats took their lead and forced the Raiders to burn a third of the remaining time to get 3 points. Game over.

Solid point. Sacrificing clock for yards is sometimes correct and I'm not advocating blind aggression. However they could at least faint it more often and then back out of it to give the QB, especially a guy like Campbell, the illusion of a lack of time.

My point was that the game wasn't a fair evaluation of the Jets defense. The Ravens realized that the Jets weren't going to score any points on offense. The Jets were not only ineffective, they were scared. It is startling to me that Flacco committed 2 silly turnovers under those circumstances.

I didn't realize that was how the second half went as I went to bed needing to be up early so I'll concede the point.

The Redskins have benefited from poor decisions and situational play by the opposing QBs/OCs. Eventually, opposing QBs will hit those open receivers and opposing OCs won't forget you are allowed to rush in the red zone. They aren't bad on defense but not a unit that I would want to pattern my team after.

You could say the same about the Pats wins. Miami, SD and Oakland all had bad turnovers, bad clock management and in game decisions. Shanahan is an above average coach and they'll continue to win those battles most weeks.

The Pats defense isn't where it needs to be. They failed in the one instance where they needed to stand tall (4th quarter against the Bills). I'm not inclined to panic based on 2 drives in a weird game. They do need to able to dial up pressure and cover behind it with the game on the line. The situation will come up in the playoffs and I would feel better if they had some positive regular season experiences to draw from.

I agree with all of that and thanks for the discourse without any of the frequent bickering or name calling. It's easy to simply disagree on some things but respect the message nonetheless.

 

[Metaphors]

Your initial quote was they hadn't trailed as a defense for a single snap not that they hadn't been down two plus scores. I agree with your basic context theory but they in fact had trailed.

I probably mangled the language and destroyed my point. How about this...the opposing offense hasn't lined up for a snap with the lead (not including extra points). That is a clear indication the offense is having its way...as long as the ball isn't deflected.

Solid point. Sacrificing clock for yards is sometimes correct and I'm not advocating blind aggression. However they could at least faint it more often and then back out of it to give the QB, especially a guy like Campbell, the illusion of a lack of time.

I'm with you and this is the perfect week to start. Sanchez is an adequate QB (in the context of their defense) when he is able to stay on his initial read. When he has to look off his initial read, he is absolutely terrible. Throwing a vanilla scheme out there on Sunday would be criminal.

I didn't realize that was how the second half went as I went to bed needing to be up early so I'll concede the point.

The Jets wet the bed so you didn't miss much. By the 4th quarter, Sanchez fell into the fetal position after every throw whether he eventually got hit or not. Keller couldn't operate in the middle since his head was on a swivel looking for Ray-Ray. It was so embarrassing that unfortunately it should translate into a solid effort Sunday if they have any pride at all.

You could say the same about the Pats wins. Miami, SD and Oakland all had bad turnovers, bad clock management and in game decisions. Shanahan is an above average coach and they'll continue to win those battles most weeks.

True but I'm not holding up the Pats as a top 5 defense. I'm not counting on NT interceptions, fullbacks running in reverse or Chung being an end zone target. The Pats have the players to get it done in more traditional ways...and this would be a great time to step up.

I agree with all of that and thanks for the discourse without any of the frequent bickering or name calling. It's easy to simply disagree on some things but respect the message nonetheless.

$#@% you , $@#&wad!

I actually think most non-trolls with critical thinking skills are pretty much on the same page. Disappointed with the defense, understanding of the mitigating circumstances, concerned but hopeful for the rest of the season.