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Football Outsiders DVOA ratings thru week 4

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by MoLewisrocks, Oct 4, 2011.

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  1. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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  2. Patriots Nation NY

    Patriots Nation NY Banned

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    Im no guru and all, but what type of competition will they face in the Playoffs? Yeah, good teams .. Sorry, but still fail the eye test grasshopper
     
  3. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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  4. xmarkd400x

    xmarkd400x 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    Did I miss something?

    The chart shows the NE defense at #27 with a DVOA of 15%. The chart also shows the NE offense at #1 with a DVOA of 44.8%. I think this confirms what many fans feel: the offense is really good and the defense needs a lot of work.
     
  5. Observer

    Observer 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    Thanks, good to know I am not the only one who thinks that 27 out of 32 is bad.
     
  6. NinjaZX6R

    NinjaZX6R In the Starting Line-Up

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    I remember last year, the NE defense in the 1st half of their schedule was ranked behind 25-29. In the 2nd half, they moved slowly to around 20-23.
     
  7. BlueThunder

    BlueThunder PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    If the Pats D could get middle of the pack around 16 or so....

    This team might be unstoppable.....:D
     
  8. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Football is moreso than ever a team game and while defense still helps win championships it doesn't absent a significant offense nowadays (or a solid ST - just ask SD). And while you're asking, just ask the Raven and the JETS who despite their vaunted defenses couldn't get much farther than we did last year or the year before in the second season where unlike in horseshoes, close doesn't count...

    I like our chances better than either of theirs given our strength is solidified by TFB and our weakness is the perview of BB.

    I understand their is room for improvement, Brady will tell you even a #1 offense can be improved upon. What I also understand is fanboys are never satisfied unless we're #1 across the board and it translates into a Lombardi because this organization has managed over the last decade to create a level of fan entitlement that is borderline nauseating...
     
    Last edited: Oct 5, 2011
  9. PatsFanSince74

    PatsFanSince74 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    First of all, I'll quibble that getting to the AFCCG actually is getting a lot "farther" than being ousted in the WC or Divisional round; playing for a championship is playing for a championship and only four NFL teams do so every season. So, let's give the Jets credit where it is due, especially since they humbled us to get there last year. I also think that "Defense wins championships" is true often enough that we shouldn't dismiss the Ravens lightly this year.

    But I agree with you, at least I think I do, on your central point; I don't think the Pats have to be "#1 across the board" to have hopes of playing in Indy in February, but I also don't think that being dead last in Passing Yards surrendered per game is going to get them where we'd like them to be. They're kind of in the middle of the pack in giving up Rushing Yards per game (#18) and getting to around there from the basement against the Pass should be more than good enough, given the strength of the Offense.

    For me, right now at least, this is a good team that needs to get better if it's going to contend, but it's far from a mediocre team that needs to remake itself.
     
    Last edited: Oct 5, 2011
  10. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Horseshoes. I remember us getting there and beyond only to fall short and have this board overrun with fanboys who would rather go 0-16 than not win it all... If they were JET fans they'd have been devastated the last two seasons and calling for Rex and Sanchize's and Schottenheimer's heads. Only reason JETS fans have been giddy (save for Shotty who is their eternal whipping boy since the noodle days) is because they don't know any better. Entitlement is a nasty state of mind than renders even normally rational fans flaming idiots.
     
    Last edited: Oct 5, 2011
  11. BSR

    BSR In the Starting Line-Up

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    Or maybe they do know better? The reality is both teams had good seasons last year. In a one game elimination playoff system, where a few flukey plays can loose you the game, a loss shouldn't wipe away everything good you had done before then. I know many want to treat it that way, but it is a very cynical viewpoint.
     
  12. Garbanza

    Garbanza In the Starting Line-Up

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    This is true. However, the Defense showed improvment with each game last year. This year not so much.
     
  13. Metaphors

    Metaphors In the Starting Line-Up

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    When analyzing the defense, you need context, context, context. The Pats defense hasn't defended a single snap this year when they were behind. About half the time the defense was defending a 2+ score lead. This brings up a couple of points:

    1) You have different goals as a defense when defending a lead vs. when you are tied or losing. I'm not saying that you immediately go into a prevent, but you also are more likely to trade yards for time. You are more ready to wait and pounce on mistakes rather than actively trying to force them.

    2) If the Pats defense is historically bad, then why haven't teams been able to jump out to leads against them? They haven't given up more than 10 points in the first half all year, despite playing teams ranked #3, #4, #12 and #13 in offense DVOA.

    Why don't the Pats play like the teams that are near the top in defense DVOA? Well first off, they are chronically injured and trying to blend new players into a new scheme. Also, I'm not so sure the teams at the top play in a way that should be emulated:

    #1 Ravens - They picked on the OL weaknesses of the Steelers, Rams and Jets...but had a lot of trouble with the Titans solid OL.

    #2 Jets - Outside of the pathetic Jags, the Jets got handled for 3 quarters by the Cowboys, got run over by the Raiders and the Ravens could have taken a knee for 4 quarters and still won big.

    #3 Lions - The last 2 weeks the Lions have been down 3 scores. Kind of the anti-Patriots.

    #4 Titans - Probably the model for what the Pats D can become. Solid but unspectacular. Consistent and reliable. Complements their offense.

    #5 Redskins - Smoke and mirrors. Not as good as the ranking would indicate. They will be exposed before long.

    So outside of the Titans and maybe the Bengals, the top of the defense DVOA aren't necessarily all that. People are drawn to the high risk/high reward, jail-break blitz schemes. While that looks pretty against questionable offenses (Jets vs. Jags, Ravens vs. Jets), it can also result in ugly losses (Jets vs. Raiders, Ravens vs. Titans). Belichick doesn't seem like a coach that can live with that level of variability built into the scheme.
     
  14. everlong

    everlong Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #12 Jersey

    Offensive rankings for our opponents.

    Buff 3rd
    Oak 4th
    SD 12th
    Miami 13th
    Average 8.0

    Jets 29th
    Dallas 17th
    Pitt 18th
    Giants 8th
    Jets 29th
    KC 31st
    Philly 11th
    Indy 28th
    Wash 21st
    Den 25th
    Miami 13th
    Buffalo 3rd
    Average 19.42

    So we are likely with no improvement to be higher than 27th on defense where we currently rank.

    Come playoff time I still think the teams I would fear on a given day would be the Ravens and Chargers. Both have the defenses that on a given day could give the Pats fits and good enough offenses to win. In the NFC the Packers and Saints are complete nightmare matchups.

    I think the Bills was an anomaly. If Brady throws 3 tipped interceptions again ya they could win but short of that no. I would also put the Jets but I'm not sure they're getting into the tourney this year.
     
  15. everlong

    everlong Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #12 Jersey

    They were down 31-24 to the Bills. They were down 3-0 to the Raiders but scored on the next drive so technically they weren't behind. They then gave up the go ahead to be down 10-7 but again the offense scored so they technically never defended while behind. Miami scored first and the Pats countered with the tying score.

    I haven't seen the prevent this year as much. Is it a young team that relaxes and doesn't give 60 minutes? More likely and this needs to be addressed. The championship teams stuck daggers in the hearts of other teams when up like that.

    I hope the second half slides go away and are just injuries and focus but this happened last year too and I'm worried about the adjustments being made on both sides of the ball. RAC and Charlie were masters at this. I still think Bill is spread too thin and needs a real DC and preferably one from a different system so they can blend and change. I think teams know what to expect from the Pats these days. I had high hopes this would happen with Capers but it didn't pan out.

    Maybe but I'd like to see the Pats do the same. The 4 O-Lines they played are solid so we'll see but other than Pitt last year I don't remember the D-Line causing matchup issues.

    The Jets defense didn't give up all those points it was the offense. They shut down the Ravens. Granted the Ravens are a suspect offense, just saying.

    They are inconsistent and I think what you said about the Ravens applies here. When they dominate the LOS they are great but when they cannot the secondary gets exposed.

    Explain please.

    You certainly need the personnel to pull off a defense like the Jets, Raven, Steelers, etc. I just wish Bill would mix it up more. When they're up two scored give Carter the green light to use and inside move and give up the outside contain for a play here or there. Not every time so you're susceptible to nonstop draws and screens but enough to keep the OT's honest. 3rd and 10 shoot the A-Gap with a LB or S. They're giving up first downs anyway so if you blitz and then get 17 instead of 11 on one play but you make them punt the next I'd take that over the constant pickups that seem to happen every week for the last two years no matter the yard to go.
     
  16. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The defense gave up 13 points in 59 minutes last week and only blew it when they let down and had some miscommunications with a minute to go and a 3 score lead... I'd call that an improvement. According to Bill this defense is playing better than the last several years defenses in the red zone. And at the end of the day, as frustrating as the rest of it is, that's what matters to him. Miscommunication is a lot easier to fix and improve on inseason than lack of talent or effort...
     
  17. TruthSeeker

    TruthSeeker PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I don't think you quite understand DVOA. The quality of the teams you play is taken into account in DVOA so if all teams play at their current levels the rest of the year, the Patriots will stay ranked 27 out of 32 teams according to DVOA. Their rankings as seen by NFL statistics will improve (then again, it's hard to go down when you're already ranked 32nd...)
     
  18. Metaphors

    Metaphors In the Starting Line-Up

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    But that is exactly the point I was making. When you are losing and on defense, a TD puts you down 2 possessions which is a troubling situation. The Pats defense hasn't faced this yet. I think you play differently when losing and defending a 3rd and 7. Giving up that conversion means you are closer to giving up that crushing score and you are sucking time/field position from your offense. On the flip side, gaining 6.5 yards results in a punt and not the certainty of a 4th down attempt the Pats often face now. That is context the statistics abstract away.

    Correct, but how do you do that? The Pats and Jets were up on the Raiders in consecutive weeks. The Jets blitzed relentlessly even though the Raiders (0-8 on 3rd down) showed no inclination for sustaining a drive. The Raiders played off this and busted big plays outside to turn a 10 point deficit into a 10 point win against a "championship" defense. The Pats took their lead and forced the Raiders to burn a third of the remaining time to get 3 points. Game over.

    Championship teams win wars. They aren't concerned about winning every battle. Ego defenses refuse to yield anything and attack regardless of the situation. It didn't work at Gettysburg and it is a risky and brain-dead way to play in the NFL.

    My point was that the game wasn't a fair evaluation of the Jets defense. The Ravens realized that the Jets weren't going to score any points on offense. The Jets were not only ineffective, they were scared. It is startling to me that Flacco committed 2 silly turnovers under those circumstances. Flacco attempted 4 passes in the 2nd half even though there was plenty of time for a Jets comeback. That wasn't a product of the Jets defense...that was due to the complete ineptitude of the Jets offense. Saying the Jets shut down the Ravens is like saying the fierceness of my dog prevents me from beating him mercilessly. I don't beat my dog because I don't want to and I don't need to. Drawing the conclusion that I couldn't is faulty logic.

    You can say that about every team in the NFL. Even Revis can't hold a receiver's jersey for over 5 seconds. The trick is what happens when you battle to a draw at the LOS. If you lose every game when that happens, you can't win a championship. If you can scrap and play well enough to give your offense a chance to win, you have a winning formula.

    The Redskins have benefited from poor decisions and situational play by the opposing QBs/OCs. Eventually, opposing QBs will hit those open receivers and opposing OCs won't forget you are allowed to rush in the red zone. They aren't bad on defense but not a unit that I would want to pattern my team after.

    I hear you. I just find it hard to complain much when the outcome is a 2 score margin of victory. Even the Bills game was heading in that direction (check the Bills 3rd quarter drives) until the uncharacteristic turnovers.

    The Pats defense isn't where it needs to be. They failed in the one instance where they needed to stand tall (4th quarter against the Bills). I'm not inclined to panic based on 2 drives in a weird game. They do need to able to dial up pressure and cover behind it with the game on the line. The situation will come up in the playoffs and I would feel better if they had some positive regular season experiences to draw from.
     
  19. everlong

    everlong Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #12 Jersey

    In theory but playing teams with a lesser offensive DVOA should in itself lend to better performance by the Pats. In the real world it's so much more about matcups anyway. Two teams could be tied in defensive DVOA and play the same team and one crushes them and the other gets crushed just based off of strengths and weaknesses. The Giants for instance aren't as scary to me against the Pats as the Eagles because of the matchps.
     
  20. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Apparently you don't understand it either... These stats are only adjusted for quality of opponent at a 40% rate to date. That effect and % will increase as the season progresses. As will the effect of improved play by a particular unit... They are not ranked 32nd in scoring, just in empty yardage total. They are tied for 20th in scoring defense.
     
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