Dr. Z on Passer Ratings

[solman]

No, it isn't.

Jake Delhomme, Jeff Garcia, or Peyton Manning - which do you feel is the best passer?

[Delhomme only has 86 passing attempts and is about to be dropped from the listing, so I didn't bother considering him]

Over his career or during this season?

Jeff Garcia is clearly having the better season.

ZERO interceptions, better completion %, better yards per attempt.

Manning is staying close thanks to his TDs, but Jeff Garcia is the better passer this year. That doesn't even factor in Manning's clearly superior receiving corps, and the fact that TBs running game has been killed by injuries to their top two backs.

Jeff Garcia is SAVING the season for Tampa Bay.

In this case the passer rating draws our attention to the fact that the better career QB is having the worse season passing (thus far).

I'm not going to pick on Garcia to beat Manning over the course of the entire season (although this wouldn't completely shock me), but stats are about what you have actually done on the field, not what people expect you to do in the future.

 

[FrontSeven]

In that example the guy throwing all the balls has far more chances of being picked, so part of the problem is that one pick out of 46 balls is actually pretty good, where no picks out of 18 is "better" according to some other standard.

But in a live game there is usually a reason (no running game) for throwing over 40 balls. That guy is forced to live by the sword, where the other guy is not. It's a very unfair analysis unless you adjust for picks when a large number of balls are thrown.

Pick percentage might be a better stat.

 

[Brooklyn Nick]

Passer Rating is the most flawed tool in all of sports

I even read an article a while ago about how coaches don't put any stock in it, there were quotes specifically from Holmgren and others

Case and point... Chad Pennington basically has a 90 career QB rating. But his team never scores any points. Theyve never been in the top 15 in scoring since he has been the starting QB, and hes played the majority of that time with a Hall of Fame back to boot. One would think a QB with a 90 career rating, playing with a HOF RB, would lead a potent offense. But no.

Its too reliant on completion %. In the NFL the passing game is often about big plays

A guy like Chad Pennington dinks and dunks his way to completing 2/3 of his passes every year, but doesnt make big plays and his offense never scores points, even when they were blessed with a HOF RB. Its about scoring points. Thats the job of the offense, not dinking and dunking your way to a bottom half of the league scoring total but having a pretty completion %

A passer who goes 2 for 3 with 3 yards passing garners a 70 QB rating

A passer who goes 1 for 3 with 20 yards passing garners a 57

Someone please tell me on what planet that makes any sense?
http://www.primecomputing.com/

Chad Pennington has a higher career QB rating then Donovan McNabb. Any metric that would lead you to believe Pennington is a better QB then McNabb over his career is absolutely useless

 

[solman]

Passer Rating is the most flawed tool in all of sports

Actually its a pretty good tool for measuring an individuals skill at passing. Your analysis, however, is horrifically flawed.

I even read an article a while ago about how coaches don't put any stock in it, there were quotes specifically from Holmgren and others

Coaches don't use any of the standard statistics to make decisions. Football is their profession, and they can afford to invest lifetimes creating their own, more accurate statistics. Case in point, the Patriots perform their own calculation of tackles, often coming up with wildly different numbers from NFL.com. The Patriots' number is influenced by BB's 30 years in the league. The NFL's numbers are not.

Case and point... Chad Pennington basically has a 90 career QB rating. But his team never scores any points.

Obviously neither of these are true. He has an 89.3 career rating and has thrown for 81 Touchdowns. Now that I've established that you are being hyperbolic we can continue.

Theyve never been in the top 15 in scoring since he has been the starting QB, and hes played the majority of that time with a Hall of Fame back to boot.

Curtis Martin will never be in the HOF. Not even close

Its too reliant on completion %. In the NFL the passing game is often about big plays

Chad's career completion percentage is 65.3%. Right now the median of all "qualified" NFL QBs is 63.35%. Chad gets roughly 1.63 extra points for having an above average completion percentage. I hardly think that this is "too reliant" on completion percentage (in fact, it looks like completion percentage has relatively little impact on QBs who are anywhere near the middle of the pack).

A guy like Chad Pennington dinks and dunks his way to completing 2/3 of his passes every year, but doesnt make big plays and his offense never scores points, even when they were blessed with a HOF RB. Its about scoring points. Thats the job of the offense, not dinking and dunking your way to a bottom half of the league scoring total but having a pretty completion %

Right now Chad has a career average of 7.2 yards per pass attempt. The current NFL median amongst "qualified" passers is 7.0. Most NFL QBs dink and dunk MORE than Chad. This includes Donnovan McNabb whose career average is 6.8. (Both QBs have a 7.1 average this year).

Compared to the average QB in the league right now, Chad is LESS of a dink and dunk passer

Chad is also doing well in the scoring department with 9 TDs. This is tied with Brett Favre at 9th. Of the 10 QBs with 9 or more TDs only one (Big Ben) has fewer attempts than Chad.

If the Jets didn't have the 25th worst running game in the league, the 28th worst defense in the league, and a rat's a@@ for a coach, they might actually be able to win some games.

A passer who goes 2 for 3 with 3 yards passing garners a 70 QB rating

A passer who goes 1 for 3 with 20 yards passing garners a 57

Someone please tell me on what planet that makes any sense?

A QB with a 33% completion percentage can not play in the NFL. A QB with 1.0 Yards per attempt can not play in the NFL. Comparing these two high school QBs by using a rating designed for the NFL is what doesn't make any sense.

Chad Pennington has a higher career QB rating then Donovan McNabb. Any metric that would lead you to believe Pennington is a better QB then McNabb over his career is absolutely useless

The metric doesn't say that Chad is a better QB. It says he is a better PASSER. Without any doubt, Chad is a better passer than Donovan. He completes twelve percent more of his passes [65.3 vs 58.3] for .4 yards more per attempt. Find me a coach he says differently.

Donovan McNabb is better at scrambling. McNabb is better at rushing. McNabb is clearly inferior at passing, and that is what PASSER rating measures.

 

[MightyFooda]

If you really want to get all worked up about it, no matter what any stats aren't fair to a QB. This season by Brady alone should prove that. Manning looks great but has had a great line and great receivers forevor. Maybe David CArr could've been a good QB if he wasn't surrounding by crap and sacked every 3 seconds his frist few years. QB ratings just do all that to a greater extent.
To me, it just shows how good Brady is, because he did it without and with great players. Who knows how many never weres could've been all time greats in the right circumstances.

 

[ATippett56]

The question was - how well do wins correlate with passer rating. Not a silly question at all. To put it differently, how much of a team's success (winning percenataage) is explained by passer rating?

If you wish for stats that matter, the Cold Hard Football Facts website is the place to start:

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Article.php?Page=889

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/2_992_2007_Passing_Yards_Per_Attempt.html

 

[Brooklyn Nick]

Actually its a pretty good tool for measuring an individuals skill at passing. Your analysis, however, is horrifically flawed.



Coaches don't use any of the standard statistics to make decisions. Football is their profession, and they can afford to invest lifetimes creating their own, more accurate statistics. Case in point, the Patriots perform their own calculation of tackles, often coming up with wildly different numbers from NFL.com. The Patriots' number is influenced by BB's 30 years in the league. The NFL's numbers are not.



Obviously neither of these are true. He has an 89.3 career rating and has thrown for 81 Touchdowns. Now that I've established that you are being hyperbolic we can continue.



Curtis Martin will never be in the HOF. Not even close



Chad's career completion percentage is 65.3%. Right now the median of all "qualified" NFL QBs is 63.35%. Chad gets roughly 1.63 extra points for having an above average completion percentage. I hardly think that this is "too reliant" on completion percentage (in fact, it looks like completion percentage has relatively little impact on QBs who are anywhere near the middle of the pack).



Right now Chad has a career average of 7.2 yards per pass attempt. The current NFL median amongst "qualified" passers is 7.0. Most NFL QBs dink and dunk MORE than Chad. This includes Donnovan McNabb whose career average is 6.8. (Both QBs have a 7.1 average this year).

Compared to the average QB in the league right now, Chad is LESS of a dink and dunk passer

Chad is also doing well in the scoring department with 9 TDs. This is tied with Brett Favre at 9th. Of the 10 QBs with 9 or more TDs only one (Big Ben) has fewer attempts than Chad.

If the Jets didn't have the 25th worst running game in the league, the 28th worst defense in the league, and a rat's a@@ for a coach, they might actually be able to win some games.



A QB with a 33% completion percentage can not play in the NFL. A QB with 1.0 Yards per attempt can not play in the NFL. Comparing these two high school QBs by using a rating designed for the NFL is what doesn't make any sense.



The metric doesn't say that Chad is a better QB. It says he is a better PASSER. Without any doubt, Chad is a better passer than Donovan. He completes twelve percent more of his passes [65.3 vs 58.3] for .4 yards more per attempt. Find me a coach he says differently.

Donovan McNabb is better at scrambling. McNabb is better at rushing. McNabb is clearly inferior at passing, and that is what PASSER rating measures.

Your post is so wrong on so many levels, i dont know where to start, so ill take it in order

First off yes, Chad Penningtons career QB rating is 89.3, I said it was 90. That establishes im being hyperbolic? No. To me that establishes you are built on making semantical arguments over 7/10 of 1 point. Thats all that establishes

2nd off, Curtis Martin won't be in the HOF? Are you kidding with that? Forget the fact that you hate him because he was a former Patriot for a second, He is a hall of fame lock. The man is 4th all time in rushing. He's 7th all time in yards from scrimmage. No one ever had more 1,000 yard seasons consecutively to begin a career then Curtis Martin. He won an NFL rushing title and finished in the top 3 in the NFL in rushing 4 times. Seven finishes in the top 10. For you to sit there and tell me he is not a hall of famer completely blows any credibility you have out of the water

Also you are trumping out yards per pass attempt as a statistic that shows that Chad completes deeper passes? Do you even know how the stat works? QBs with a higher completion % have a huge advantage in that statistic because every incomplete pass gets counted as 0 yards on that attempt, the more you have the lower the average will be, simple math.

You want to talk about yards gained per completed pass? McNabb 11.647, and Chad 11.032 (noticed i went 3 places with the decimal this time because I realize how you get your panties in a bunch if its not exactly rounded off)

And you think yards per attempt proves McNabb dinks more then Chad? Actually the opposite. Hes attempting more passes down the field which are harder to complete and his completion % suffers because of it. Pennington threw like 3 passes all season or some absurd stat like that over 20 yards in the air after the Giants game, 5 games into the season. The stat had been given out all over the place in NY the week after that game

Explain to me if how Pennington is such a prolific passer his teams never rank near the top of the NFL in scoring at any point in his career, despite being surrounded by a great running game. Also explain to me how hes a better passer then John Elway, who's career QB rating is about 10 points lower then Chad