First, I don't think Gostkowski really endeared himself nor did he win BB's confidence when he shanked a KO out of bounds following a Pats TD to give the Giants the ball at their 40. I actually posted my concerns about Gost flirting with the sideline too much months ago and I also used Carney shank in the '03 SB as an example for this concern.
While I don't think we'll know exactly what went through BB's head when he decided to go for it on 4th and 11, a few more things to consider:
Gostkowski for his career from the 40-49 range is 5 for 9 for a 55.6% success rate. The longest FG Gost made in the 2007 season was a 45 yarder.
The Patriots offense's 4th down conversions for the 2007 season was 16 for 24 which includes their 1 for 3 4th down conversion ratio in the post-season.
"Bellman Equation":
From a NY Times article, Feb. 1, '04
By David Leonhardt
[snip]
But when his conclusion - teams punt too much - began getting attention
last summer, a reporter asked Bill Belichick, the coach of the New
England Patriots, about the paper.
"I read it," he said, according to The Boston Herald. "I don't know much
of the math involved, but I think I understand the conclusions and he
has some valid points."
Upon hearing that, Professor Romer's jaw dropped, he said. His paper was
available only on his Berkeley Internet site, emlab.berkeley.edu
/users/dromer, and the site of a group called the National Bureau of
Economic Research.
But the most interesting development was yet to come. Two weeks ago,
facing a fourth down in the Patriots' own territory on the very first
drive of the game - a sure punting situation in the N.F.L. - Belichick
decided to go for a first down and made it. The Patriots soon scored a
touchdown and were on their way to today's Super Bowl, against the
Carolina Panthers.
Football analysts immediately called the decision an instance of a
coach's instinct triumphing over cold analysis. In fact, Professor Romer
said last week, Belichick seemed to be "throwing gut instinct out the
window and going on analysis." The information is right there in Figure
5 of the economist's paper: on fourth and 1 on your own 44-yard line,
the potential benefit of keeping the drive going outweighs the cost of
giving the opponents good field position.
[snip]
http://tinyurl.com/2tl4zd
Agreed, and yet I also think people downplaying or dismissing AV's Snowbowl and past SB winning kicks as merely any other kicks are way off.
