Dear Theo: Don't touch the prospects

[BradyManny]

Dear Theo:

DO NOT TRADE Buccholz, Lester, Bowden, Ellsbury...hell, any friggin prospect. They proved in the postseason that they are far too valuable at far too low a price.

Free agent signings in the recent years have been a little tough, Clement, Renteria, Drew, Lugo, etc. The pressure of being a high paid player in Boston is too much for most to handle.

The youngsters however have had no trouble adapting. Look at the success of Papelbon, Lester, Buccholz, Ellsbury, Delcarmen, Youkilis, Pedroia. Of all the highly-touted prospects brought up, only one has failed (Hansen) and that was b/c he was brought up so soon, there's still plenty of time left for him.

I know that the prospect of dealing some of these guys for Miguel Cabrera or Johan Santana may arise. I don't care, it's not worth it. We have our ace, Beckett, we already did our 3 for 1 kind of deal (well, 2, Lowell was a throw-in if you remember...). Our team is already WS level, trading 3 good players for one great player only weakens our chances at winning again.

Keep the prospects, they fill multiple roster spots, they perform well, there is less pressure on them, and they allow you to sign free agents b/c of their low cost. A few years ago, you could have easily traded away Papelbon under the assumption that "oh, he's good, but is he as good as ____ (fill in great player)", and guess what, a couple years later, he is the best closer in the game.

These young guys are on their way to pretty great things and will be under Red Sox control for a while and playing for peanuts for a while. On top of that, they're all extremely likeable and already fan favorites. Don't mess with a good thing.

 

[Foley]

And adding to this, let the free agents walk and collect the draft picks.

Orlando Cabrera may be nice to have on this team, but I'd rather have Ellsbury. Pedro may have been nice if he was healthy, but I'd rather have Buchholz. Lowe may be nice, but I'd rather have Bowden. This FO certainly has made some mistakes, but on a whole they have been great at drafting and should jump at any opportunity to get more draft picks to make the minors even deeper. I'd rather get 2 draft picks that could net another Pedroia, Ellsbury or Papelbon than I would one more year of Schilling.

 

[BradyManny]

And adding to this, let the free agents walk and collect the draft picks.

Orlando Cabrera may be nice to have on this team, but I'd rather have Ellsbury. Pedro may have been nice if he was healthy, but I'd rather have Buchholz. Lowe may be nice, but I'd rather have Bowden. This FO certainly has made some mistakes, but on a whole they have been great at drafting and should jump at any opportunity to get more draft picks to make the minors even deeper. I'd rather get 2 draft picks that could net another Pedroia, Ellsbury or Papelbon than I would one more year of Schilling.

That's a great point I hadn't really thought of. I do think that if they can get either Schill or Lowell on their terms, they should do it, but they shouldn't budge. Theo has proven very smart when it comes to knowing when to let go, and with both Schill and Lowell, that could be the time. As you point out, the added benefit is the draft picks.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

I think Theo has shown at the last two trade deadlines that he will not foolishly trade away prospects. Remember how much has was killed for doing nothing in '06? Today we're all thrilled he didn't trade away one of the above mentioned prospects.

The good news is that the Sox don't need much. They can use a 1B or 3B, but don't need either if they re-sign Lowell. They can use a Manny replacement, but don't need one if the right deal doesn't come along. They also have Crisp to trade. The only way the Sox touch the prospects is for an impact player.

I really hope they don't trade Lester, and I'm pretty confident the Sox FO is smart enough not to. Cancer really lowered his value. He's really a lefty who can hit the mid-90s, and I hope to see that from him next year. If he doesn't fix his control issues he's a good pitcher. If he does fix them (not necessarily likely at this point, but we can always hope) he can be great.

*edit* and the Sox won't get any picks for Schilling. If they offer him arbitration he'll accept. He wants a one year deal with Boston.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Dear Theo:

DO NOT TRADE Buccholz, Lester, Bowden, Ellsbury...hell, any friggin prospect. They proved in the postseason that they are far too valuable at far too low a price.

Free agent signings in the recent years have been a little tough, Clement, Renteria, Drew, Lugo, etc. The pressure of being a high paid player in Boston is too much for most to handle.

The youngsters however have had no trouble adapting. Look at the success of Papelbon, Lester, Buccholz, Ellsbury, Delcarmen, Youkilis, Pedroia. Of all the highly-touted prospects brought up, only one has failed (Hansen) and that was b/c he was brought up so soon, there's still plenty of time left for him.

I know that the prospect of dealing some of these guys for Miguel Cabrera or Johan Santana may arise. I don't care, it's not worth it. We have our ace, Beckett, we already did our 3 for 1 kind of deal (well, 2, Lowell was a throw-in if you remember...). Our team is already WS level, trading 3 good players for one great player only weakens our chances at winning again.

Keep the prospects, they fill multiple roster spots, they perform well, there is less pressure on them, and they allow you to sign free agents b/c of their low cost. A few years ago, you could have easily traded away Papelbon under the assumption that "oh, he's good, but is he as good as ____ (fill in great player)", and guess what, a couple years later, he is the best closer in the game.

These young guys are on their way to pretty great things and will be under Red Sox control for a while and playing for peanuts for a while. On top of that, they're all extremely likeable and already fan favorites. Don't mess with a good thing.

You might get your wish... Theo opposed to the Beckett deal because he didn't want to give up young prospects

I'm sure there's a lot of Red Sox fans who are still upset about that trade and wish we'd never seen Beckett in a Red Sox uniform...

Seriously I'm really not sure what's so bad about a fair trade... if you want an established major league pitcher - one who projects to be an ace in his prime, you're going to have to give something up of quality to get him.

I find it laughable all the fans who expect a GM to trade crap for gold.

I'd love to have Ramirez's bat in our lineup - but given a choice between an ace pitcher and a quality bat, I'll take the ace pitcher every time.

Now in the case of the rumored Buccholz, Lester, Crisp trade for Johan Santana - that could turn out to be a fair deal for the Twins as well - another win/win as Santana's been a remarkably consistent player with an ERA just over 3.00 since 2002 - and again at age 28 with some good bats behind him, I think you're looking at a very probably 20 win season.

So do you have to give up some good prospects to get a player of that caliber? Yes - they're not going to accept crap players.

It's just a question of whether Buccholz is viewed as being the real deal - as there's a bunch of guys with no hitters out there who just got lucky and never did much else.

 

[JoeSixPat]

And adding to this, let the free agents walk and collect the draft picks.

Orlando Cabrera may be nice to have on this team, but I'd rather have Ellsbury. Pedro may have been nice if he was healthy, but I'd rather have Buchholz. Lowe may be nice, but I'd rather have Bowden. This FO certainly has made some mistakes, but on a whole they have been great at drafting and should jump at any opportunity to get more draft picks to make the minors even deeper. I'd rather get 2 draft picks that could net another Pedroia, Ellsbury or Papelbon than I would one more year of Schilling.

Hold on - not that I was opposed to Pedro walking given that contract but eschewing free agents for draft picks?

This isn't the NFL - look how long it takes for draft picks to develop - and most never make it past the minors.

I'm all for being careful in free agency but letting established players walk because you actually want guys who have a .05% chance of making in the big leagues 5 years down the road?

?????

 

[everlong]

The one player I can see them trading prospects for is Santana. The caveat being you sign him to an extension before the trade. It accomplishes two things the first giving us a sick front end of the rotation the second is keeping the Yankees from trading for him.

Imagine a Santana, Beckett, Dice K, Buchholtz as the top four starters.

I'd rather have Santana and Lowell then A-fraud for the same price.

 

[Foley]

Hold on - not that I was opposed to Pedro walking given that contract but eschewing free agents for draft picks?

This isn't the NFL - look how long it takes for draft picks to develop - and most never make it past the minors.

I'm all for being careful in free agency but letting established players walk because you actually want guys who have a .05% chance of making in the big leagues 5 years down the road?

?????

Players drafted in the first round and the sandwich round typically have a high likelihood of making it to the majors, and college players typically only need two or three years to develop before they're ready to contribute in the majors. Given that the FO has shown a very good eye for drafting in the high round when they have the picks, I like the chances of them selecting someone of value.

And thats not to say that they should never re-sign their own players, but like BradyManny2344 said, they should only do it on their own terms.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Players drafted in the first round and the sandwich round typically have a high likelihood of making it to the majors, and college players typically only need two or three years to develop before they're ready to contribute in the majors. Given that the FO has shown a very good eye for drafting in the high round when they have the picks, I like the chances of them selecting someone of value.

And thats not to say that they should never re-sign their own players, but like BradyManny2344 said, they should only do it on their own terms.

Not exactly.

Unlike the NFL draft the MLB draft doesn't even truly go in order of best to worst player... some players out of high school represented by say, Scott Boras go much later because teams don't think they will sign or can't afford to sign them

Even those that are the highest prospects don't always work out. Is Craig Hanson still considered a sure thing - in the MLB bullpen by year 3, let alone 2 or 1?

Generally one needs at least 5 years just to see if the very best of the best prospects are going to be busts or not.

Just this past year an ESPN article declared that half of all 1st round picks could be declared outright busts from 5 years ago

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/draft2007/index scroll down on the left

So when it comes to choosing between a proven major league player and a draft pick who stands a good chance of being bust in the minor leagues, let alone the Majors, I tend to go with the proven players.

Now if we were a low budget small market team I'd probably agree with you, but last time I checked the Red Sox were willing to pay for free agents and weren't all that concerned about the luxury tax.

That being said, there's no reason why the Sox can't develop their Farm system AND be active in free agency - which is what has been so effective for them this season.

 

[Foley]

Even those that are the highest prospects don't always work out. Is Craig Hanson still considered a sure thing - in the MLB bullpen by year 3, let alone 2 or 1?

I didn't claim it was a guarantee, I just said that the chances of success aren't as bad as one typically thinks when they think of the draft. When close to 1,500 players are drafted every year of course a vast majority of them wont reach the majors. But those in the higher rounds typically do and have a good amount of success.

Generally one needs at least 5 years just to see if the very best of the best prospects are going to be busts or not.

For High School students, yes. Most college draftees don't need that long to develop if they're in a good system.

Just this past year an ESPN article declared that half of all 1st round picks could be declared outright busts from 5 years ago

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/draft2007/index scroll down on the left

Keith Law really knows how to pick them. A draft that includes BJ Upton, Adam Loewen, Prince Fielder, Jeff Francis, Jeremy Hermida, Joe Saunders, Khalil Greene, Scott Kazmir, Nick Swisher, Cole Hamels, James Loney, Jeremy Guthrie, Jeff Francoeur, Joe Blanton and Matt Cain in the first round is a bad one. Yeah, thats only about half, but a 50% chance at a player of that caliber when you have a scouting department like the Sox do brings that number up a lot.

That being said, there's no reason why the Sox can't develop their Farm system AND be active in free agency - which is what has been so effective for them this season.

Exactly. They just shouldn't overspend on a free agent unless they deem them truly necessary and have the ability to be a quality player for more than 2 years.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Living down her in A ball country I get so see the "prospects" long before anyone else. Savannah is the home to the MEts low A ball team, and they had absolutley no talent whatsoever.

I saw Lester pitch for Greenville (Sox A ball) this year. He broke five bats in a row on inside cut fastballs.

You can usually tell in A ball, who has "it"or his a "Jag" (just a guy)
I still have my Greg Gange Savannah Sandgnat bobblehead on my desk. Before the Mets Savannah was the Expos/Nationals A ball team and when Zimmerman came through here a few years ago, it was clear he was a man amoungst boys.

I caught all for Greenville/Savannah games last few years

Jeff Natale is a very good looking 3rd baseman
But look out for this kid Dustin RIchardson, think Randy Johnson without the pock marks. 6'5" lefty good fastball, and very nasty against lefties (you should have seen the minor leaguers bailing).

Mark Wagner is a decent catching prospect, but I don't think he can hit enough to make it.

$5 general admission, and 2-1 beers on both Tuesday and Thursday night, you can't beat minor league baseball.

 

[Boston Boxer]

The one player I can see them trading prospects for is Santana. The caveat being you sign him to an extension before the trade. It accomplishes two things the first giving us a sick front end of the rotation the second is keeping the Yankees from trading for him.

Imagine a Santana, Beckett, Dice K, Buchholtz as the top four starters.

I'd rather have Santana and Lowell then A-fraud for the same price.

the only way we get Santana is if Buchholz is in the deal...i say no thanks

 

[JoeSixPat]

Living down her in A ball country I get so see the "prospects" long before anyone else. Savannah is the home to the MEts low A ball team, and they had absolutley no talent whatsoever.

I saw Lester pitch for Greenville (Sox A ball) this year. He broke five bats in a row on inside cut fastballs.

You can usually tell in A ball, who has "it"or his a "Jag" (just a guy)
I still have my Greg Gange Savannah Sandgnat bobblehead on my desk. Before the Mets Savannah was the Expos/Nationals A ball team and when Zimmerman came through here a few years ago, it was clear he was a man amoungst boys.

I caught all for Greenville/Savannah games last few years

Jeff Natale is a very good looking 3rd baseman
But look out for this kid Dustin RIchardson, think Randy Johnson without the pock marks. 6'5" lefty good fastball, and very nasty against lefties (you should have seen the minor leaguers bailing).

Mark Wagner is a decent catching prospect, but I don't think he can hit enough to make it.

$5 general admission, and 2-1 beers on both Tuesday and Thursday night, you can't beat minor league baseball.

Thanks for the heads up on some players to look for

Of course the Pawsox have kept their prices nearly the same for the last 20 years - I don't think I paid more than $5 to go see some AAA ball

Also not far from me are the Norwich Navigators (formerly the AA team for the Yankees I think... Mike Lowell played there!) and I think they even still have $1 admission nights!

To me baseball is baseball - very enjoyable to be at games when the competition is generally even - which is a great thing (as opposed to the developmental leagues in other sports)

Of course with the fastball pitchers it's really a question of their control and ballplacement, no? That and developing a few other pitches... as I think there's plenty of guys with heat but not the other ingredients.

 

[scout]

the only way we get Santana is if Buchholz is in the deal...i say no thanks

I tend to agree. What has Lester or Bucholz not done to make them expendable. All Lester did was win the last game of a world series. He is a 23 year old left hander and we're going trade him away? Buchholz threw a no hitter in his second start and he'll go to. While we're at it lets throw in a gold glove center fielder. Santana is a great pitcher, but we already have two great pitchers. In the big picture we are better off keeping all the pieces.

 

[sdaniels7114]

the only way we get Santana is if Buchholz is in the deal...i say no thanks

I'd help Buchholz pack if it meant Santanna and an extension, and I'm a big Fan of Clay's; but he's still just a probable. Santana, at 28, is a lead pipe cinch for years to come.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I'd help Buchholz pack if it meant Santanna and an extension, and I'm a big Fan of Clay's; but he's still just a probable. Santana, at 28, is a lead pipe cinch for years to come.

I tend to agree. There's a list of about 200 guys who have pitched no hitters in the last century - more than a few were pretty average guys who got lucky, and didn't exactly go on to have stellar careers.

Rookies especially, I feel, having no real scouting report on them with batters not really knowing what to expect, strike me as falling into that category.

Ultimately I don't think one can look at pitchers who have thrown no hitters and say that's an indication of how good a career they had or will have.

Santana on the otherhand, is a consistent excellent pitcher who always seems to have an era between 3.00 and 3.5

It can be a tough choice for the GM no doubt:

Do you want a potential PowerBall winning ticket? Or a sure fire PowerBall winning ticket... hmmm - I think I'll go with the sure thing!

 

[scout]

If your willing to trade for a top rated pitcher, then we shouldn't just look at Santana. Scott Kazmir with the Devil Rays is also an excellent pitcher. Four years in the bigs and was 13-9 with the Rays last year. If I was looking to trade a number of players, I'd see if Tampa might be interested.

 

[BradyManny]

I'd help Buchholz pack if it meant Santanna and an extension, and I'm a big Fan of Clay's; but he's still just a probable. Santana, at 28, is a lead pipe cinch for years to come.

Buccholz may never be as good as Santana, but to get Santana, you're probably giving Buccholz, Lester & Ellsbury (I heard Ken Roesenthal on EEI say this wasn't even enough). That's three starters. It's going to take at least $25 million a year to extend him, that's enough money for another 2-3 starters.

That's 5-6 quality players you're giving up. For what? Somewhere between a .5 - .75 ERA improvement over Buccholz on a team that a) already has at least one ace, b) scores enough runs where it probably doesn't matter?

We have our ace, and we have two guys that may be aces (Dice and Buccholz) and another guy who is at worst a 4 and could wind up being good 2 (Lester, who is starting to show the things that made him such a high prospect). We're already a world series caliber team, we don't need to get in on the Santana sweepstakes or any other blockbuster.

 

[sdaniels7114]

...but to get Santana, you're probably giving Buccholz, Lester & Ellsbury...

That's a pretty big bump in terms of trade value if you compare it to what we paid for Beckett. I'd say Beckett's value then was about equivalent to Santana's today. Beckett was younger and although he hadn't won any CY's, he was a proven Yankee killer. That proof coming on Baseball's biggest stage. Your probably closer in terms of what it would take. Buchholtz/Santanna straight up seems like stealing the more I think of it; but it was fun to dream for a little while Don't forget that Santanna's 'trade' value drops to one first round draft pick a year from now, he being a free agent by then. So if Minny can't extend him the pressure's on them.

 

[scout]

Maybe the Sox are going to drive up the price for him. No way they ever should trade Ellsbury, never.