Could this possibly be Belichick's plan for Cassel?

[Sicilian]

They also beat what, 7 or 8 of the 11 other teams that made the playoffs?

Yup, and this year we played Miami twice, Indy, SD, Pitt and Ari. So 6 games against playoff teams instead of 7 or 8, including both teams that went to the Super Bowl.

I'll concede that the schedule last year might have been tougher overall (if there were even a way to quantify it), but the difference is not so vast as you can factor it into a Brady/Cassel comparison accurately.

The way I see it, Brady is about 5 games better than Cassel, and in the NFL that is still a REMARKABLE difference.

 

[Synovia]

The way I see it, Brady is about 5 games better than Cassel, and in the NFL that is still a REMARKABLE difference.

Again, thats totally ignoring the defensive decline, and totally ignoring the fact that Cassel was much better at the end of the season than the beginning.


Look at Cassel's last 10 games of the season, and Brady's last ten. Look at raw stats. Look at DVOA. Look at DPAR/DYAR. THey're pretty damn similar.

 

[Sicilian]

Again, thats totally ignoring the defensive decline, and totally ignoring the fact that Cassel was much better at the end of the season than the beginning.


Look at Cassel's last 10 games of the season, and Brady's last ten. Look at raw stats. Look at DVOA. Look at DPAR/DYAR. THey're pretty damn similar.

I was keeping it simple as a way to close my post about the schedules being similar. I really don't care exactly how much better Brady is than Cassel. All I'm saying is, you can't use the schedule in any accurate comparison.

 

[Synovia]

I was keeping it simple as a way to close my post about the schedules being similar. I really don't care exactly how much better Brady is than Cassel. All I'm saying is, you can't use the schedule in any accurate comparison.

"keeping it simple" is generally slang for "ignoring facts that don't agree with my point"


I agree with you about the schedule.

 

[Sicilian]

"keeping it simple" is generally slang for "ignoring facts that don't agree with my point"


I agree with you about the schedule.

Again, only if I was trying to actually make a mathematical argument to show the exact comparison between Brady and Cassel. I was not. If I was, then I would explore stats like that. Since my argument was about the schedule, I threw in a closing statement as an example of my thinking, not as a be all end all statement of value.

 

[BradyManny]

Again, thats totally ignoring the defensive decline, and totally ignoring the fact that Cassel was much better at the end of the season than the beginning.


Look at Cassel's last 10 games of the season, and Brady's last ten. Look at raw stats. Look at DVOA. Look at DPAR/DYAR. THey're pretty damn similar.

You continue to cherry pick stats. First off, you're giving me DYAR - I'd rather see DVOA. That #28 against Pittsburgh is telling. Brady likely would've lit Pittsburgh up again.

Sure, if you disregard the first half of the season, disregard Buffalo, ignore Pittsburgh, ignore Seattle, then he looks like a top tier QB.

The point is, you don't have to cherry pick Brady's stats to point out he had the highest DVOA of all time.

If you feel comfortable paying Cassel 14.5 million and can guarantee he can lead us to the playoffs against next year's schedule, good for you - I guess that makes you an even bigger homer than me which is a feat worth celebrating, not denouncing.

 

[Synovia]

You continue to cherry pick stats. First off, you're giving me DYAR - I'd rather see DVOA. That #28 against Pittsburgh is telling. Brady likely would've lit Pittsburgh up again.

Sure, if you disregard the first half of the season, disregard Buffalo, ignore Pittsburgh, ignore Seattle, then he looks like a top tier QB.

The point is, you don't have to cherry pick Brady's stats to point out he had the highest DVOA of all time. .

Football outsiders doesn't give individual game DVOA, so theres no way for me to do it. Considering that he was one of the top QBs every one of those weeks, I'm sure he had a high DVOA. Considering that the Patriots offense went from well below average in week 5 to one of the better ones in the league, I'm sure he was playing well. I disregard Buffalo not because cassel was bad (he was actually quite good) but because they only threw 8 passes, IIRC.


"Brady likely would've lit Pittsburgh up again." Possibly. Or he could have stunk it up like he did against Philly. Or Baltimore. Or the Giants.



I disregard the first half of the season for a very clear reason: The patriots were running an entirely different offense in the first half of the season.

 

[Synovia]

Again, only if I was trying to actually make a mathematical argument to show the exact comparison between Brady and Cassel. I was not.

I'm pretty sure "Brady is 5 games better than Cassel" is a (ignorant) mathematical argument.

 

[Sicilian]

I'm pretty sure "Brady is 5 games better than Cassel" is a (ignorant) mathematical argument.

Thank you for calling me ignorant again. I appreciate it.

Let me try to explain this again... I don't care who's better between Brady and Cassel. My entire post was meant to explain the equality of the schedule.

The original argument was that Brady went 16-0 with a tough schedule while Cassel went 11-5 with a weak schedule, thus implying that the difference between Cassel and Brady was really more than 5 games (irrelevant statistic that it is).

My point was simply, if you're going to make that argument, the schedules were not as far apart as people think IMO. So given equal schedules, under that argument, Brady is still 5 games better than Cassel. Is it 100% accurate? No, hence why I will say yet again that I'm not trying to quantify their worth compared to each other. It was a means to close the post in response to a previous post.

Is that more clear?

 

[Synovia]

Sure, if you disregard the first half of the season, disregard Buffalo, ignore Pittsburgh, ignore Seattle, then he looks like a top tier QB.

Every QB has bad days. Peyton Manning was the best QB in the league this year, and had some absolute stinkers. Even without ignoring Pittsburgh and Seattle, Cassel was STILL one of the best in the league over the second half.

 

[Synovia]

Thank you for calling me ignorant again. I appreciate it.

I was calling your argument ignorant, not you. Pushing "hes 5 games better" without taking anything else into consideration most certainly IS ignorant.

 

[Sicilian]

I was calling your argument ignorant, not you. Pushing "hes 5 games better" without taking anything else into consideration most certainly IS ignorant.

Ugh. Of course it is, IF that was my underlying argument. It was not, it was simply a means of comparison in the context of the schedule, which was my main concern.

I can't think of any other way to explain it, so let's agree to disagree (or more accurately, let's agree to not continue arguing completely separate points).

 

[BradyManny]

"Brady likely would've lit Pittsburgh up again." Possibly. Or he could have stunk it up like he did against Philly. Or Baltimore. Or the Giants.

If you average Brady's #s over those 3 games he "stunk it up" and project them over a season, here's what you get:

4816 yards
21 TDs
5 INTs
58%

Yup. Really sucky.

OK, so have you seen enough from Cassel that you are OK w him making 14.5 million dollars and chewing up most of all the remaining cap space? Are you quite confident Cassel can lead this team to a compete towards a Super Bowl in 2009 if Brady can't go? Because for 14.5 million, you should be.