Bold prediction: Giants contain Brady but Pats rush for 200+ on Sunday

[Deus Irae]

They won it without Nicks too.

Yeah.... Gronk had 8 catches for 101 yards and a TD in the regular season meeting, and the Nicks-less Giants still beat the Patriots 24-20 in the game.

 

[oldrover]

In 2011, Gronk played during the regular season against the Giants. The Giants won that game, too.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Both. Brady in 2007 and Gronk in 2011.

I personally find the "no excuses" rhetoric to be a load of horseshit. Pointing out that guys having perhaps the greatest season at their respective seasons both ended up injuring their ankles prior to the SB is important context, not excuse making. I also submit this:

Right. There is nothing wrong with calling out factors that may have contributed to poor performance or defeat.

I've seen that video before and he is 100% accurate. A healthy Gronk and Talib MIGHT have made the difference.

If TB12 was walking around 100% and Neal and Faulk do not get hurt that MIGHT have made the difference in SB42.

It doesn't change the outcome. They had their chance and it didn't work out.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Yeah.... Gronk had 8 catches for 101 yards and a TD in the regular season meeting, and the Nicks-less Giants still beat the Patriots 24-20 in the game.

I really wonder how much of a factor TB12's re-aggravation of his shoulder injury was. Tuck flattened him and Hoyer was warming up until TB told him to sit the hell down.

After that he didn't complete another 16 in a row

 

[Kontradiction]

Took 4 turnovers by the Pats

Aye. Winning the turnover battle is often essential to getting the W.

 

[aluminum seats]

Both. Brady in 2007 and Gronk in 2011.

I personally find the "no excuses" rhetoric to be a load of horseshit. Pointing out that guys having perhaps the greatest season at their respective seasons both ended up injuring their ankles prior to the SB is important context, not excuse making. I also submit this:

Pretty much agree. Which isn't to say that deluded fans don't always say, "yeah, we woulda won, but..." all the time, but stupidity doesn't invalidate the idea of analyzing a game. Gronk being healthy in 2011 would have, objectively I think, made all the difference.

 

[bigballas]

The Giants run defense is not very good, and that was even before their best run stuffer was lost for the season. We know this team likes to target the other team's weaknesses instead of playing "by the book". I bet that is exactly what they try to do and they'll have success doing it.

Will be fun to watch them try to rush Brady as Blount runs right over them or by them. I think he's due for a big game.

what? their pass defense is one of the worst. worst than their run defense for sure

where you get their run defense isnt good?

 

[Oswlek]

It doesn't change the outcome.

Agreed, but there'd be no point in analysis if the end result was the only thing that could be discussed.

It can be too much if someone has an excuse for everything, but an injury to one of the greatest players to ever lace 'em up counts as being germane, IMO.

 

[Deus Irae]

Pretty much agree. Which isn't to say that deluded fans don't always say, "yeah, we woulda won, but..." all the time, but stupidity doesn't invalidate the idea of analyzing a game. Gronk being healthy in 2011 would have, objectively I think, made all the difference.

No...

It, objectively, did not make the difference in the earlier game. Speculatively, it might have made the difference in the SB.

 

[Oswlek]

where you get their run defense isnt good?

They started the season very well, but they've been lousy for weeks now. Dallas put up over 200 on them in NY without a quarterback and WRs. Two of their last three opponents went over 5 ypc and that was before losing Hankins.

 

[fnordcircle]

Things that don't matter for Sunday's game:

Every other game we've played against the Giants ever.

 

[SVN]

Pats might run the ball just by choice to protect the oline. I doubt they will go pass heavy in shotgun all game regardless of how many sacks giants have had so so far. Its another game where the defense needs to pick it up to help the offense with its oline.

 

[tombonneau]

I'm worried about this game. I still think Blount isn't that good and only gets going when the other side gets tired.

I was curious to look at the actual data instead of anecdotal fan "thinking & feelin" and so looked up his career splits on PFR:

LeGarrette Blount Career Splits | Pro-Football-Reference.com

    Value    Att    Yds    Y/A    TD    1D    Tgt    Rec    Yds    Y/R    Y/Tgt    TD    1D
Quarter    1st Qtr    197    753    3.8    5    39    10    5    57    11.4    5.7    0    2
2nd Qtr    178    889    5.0    6    36    17    12    60    5.0    3.5    0    3
3rd Qtr    207    953    4.6    4    40    17    12    118    9.8    6.9    0    6
4th Qtr    234    1150    4.9    15    59    10    7    48    6.9    4.8    1    2
1st Half    375    1642    4.4    11    75    27    17    117    6.9    4.3    0    5
2nd Half    441    2103    4.8    19    99    27    19    166    8.7    6.1    1    8

While the first quarter is his worst, he's pretty consistent the rest of the quarters and averages slightly more in the second half.

Certainly he does better but it's not like he sucks.

Two stats that actually really stick out:

• Averages 5.5ypc on 1st & 10 (!)
• Average 5.9ypc with the lead and under 4 minutes to go

So that second bullet certainly speaks to him being a great finisher, but the fact he averages 5.5ypc on 1&10, damn, run the ball more, Josh!

 

[Patriot Missile]

Could be wrong but I see this game as a win. With Brady at the helm I'm usually right when predicting wins.

 

[sb1]

They started the season very well, but they've been lousy for weeks now. Dallas put up over 200 on them in NY without a quarterback and WRs. Two of their last three opponents went over 5 ypc and that was before losing Hankins.

This.

I also wouldn't say allowing 4.4 YPC to Washington's 29th ranked rush offense is all that terrific either.

Akamura is not playing on Sunday and he too is very good at getting to the runner and making the tackle.

I don't think Blount is a favorable matchup for them. I really think the Pats can run it right down their throats if they choose to. I wouldn't be surprised if that's exactly what they do and have a monster day doing it.

 

[JMC00]

I'm worried about this game. I still think Blount isn't that good and only gets going when the other side gets tired.

I take it you don't think Todd Gurley is that good? The majority of his yards come in the 4th.

Blount is like every running back he needs the ball consistently and 4-5 of their runs will be the majority of their rushing yards for the game while the other 12-15 are 4 yards and less.

But take out the games where he only carried the ball 2 and 3 times and he's top 5 in the league in rushing yards per game with 89 per game

The 3 ahead of him
Bell- 92.7
Peterson- 94.2
Gurley- 110.7

 

[PatsFanSince74]

@Oswlek is referring to SB42 when TB12 had the mobility of a tree.

No. He was responding to Makoute's post: "How did they do it in 2011. This team defies all logic when they play the pats." In the 2011 season SB, Gronk was in a "Walking Boot" before SB xlvi.

 

[Kontradiction]

On paper, the Pats should blow the doors off of this team. The Giants, on defense, haven't been able to stop a JV squad all year long - let alone an NFL caliber offense. You can run and throw on them. They have exactly one reliable pass rusher and Amukumara is going to be missing his fifth straight game. If the Pats don't win this by multiple scores, it will be because they're turning the ball over.

 

[JMC00]

I don't think Blount is a favorable matchup for them. I really think the Pats can run it right down their throats if they choose to. I wouldn't be surprised if that's exactly what they do and have a monster day doing it.

Oh if BB and McDaniels decides this is a game to feed Blount, he could punish them. I know people are wondering about the OL but I like an OL of Kline, Stork, Andrews, Mason and Fleming with Gronk and Williams chipping in the run game. Especially with the Giants now without their best DT.

 

[sb1]

I think the fact the Pats were even in the Super Bowl in 2011 says more about the AFC than it does about NE.

Almost 1200 yards passing allowed to the pro bowl trio of Dan Orlovsky, Vince Young and Chad Henne.... Nuff said.