Are You Smarter Than an NFL "Expert"?

[everlong]

I always play two pick em leagues. One just winners and losers and one vs the spread. This was the weirdest year as for the first time I did better vs the spread than straight up. I got 169 right straight up and 178 right vs the spread. The straight up is lower than normal but the spread is a record.

It just seemed on every tight game I'd take the points but like the favorite and of course the underdog would win and cover.

 

[slam]

If you went .500 against the spread, you are better than Bill Simmons.

RNK 	ENTRY, OWNER 				W	L	PCT
1	WestBevWildcats, MatthewBerry 		142	114	55.47%		
2	Judge Spreadd, Gusram67 		137	119	53.52%		
3	CT Jacko's, JBOC3 			136	120	53.13%	
3	Rooney Mara 4 Commish, katiebakes 	136	120	53.13%			
4	Galloween, geoffgallo 			134	122	52.34%	
5	@Dameshek, Dameshek66 			131	125	51.17%	
6	chadmillman1 1, chadmillman1 		130	126	50.78%		
6	TheJBUGS 1, TheJBUGS 			130	126	50.78%	
7	The One Who Knocks, Adande 		120	120	50.00%		
8	@JoeMead, joemeadespn 			127	129	49.61%	
9	Team Simmons, SPTGUY33 			126	130	49.22%	
10	Billy Stern & the OptOuts, bucherr 	125	131	48.83%			
11	Gross SexyBeckMan, Solsistahs 		121	135	47.27%

Geez, everlong. 178 would have won the ESPN game by a country mile. The best user out of 12,837 there had 160 right.

 

[Ron Sellers]

I was in a PatsFans.com pick'em league on Yahoo; the top score was over 71% correct and the lowest was over 64% - although those numbers are slightly skewed because the two worst weeks were dropped. In the case of that top score they dropped a 7-6 and 8-5 week, so their 163-67 record was actually 176-78, or 69.29%. The next 15 or so players were all within about six or seven wins, which would put them in the upper half of the OP's media experts. Personally I was 158-71 (I forgot to make picks in the two weeks that were dropped), which was 69% correct.

Based on all these numbers I wouldn't imagine Mohegan Sun is in any jeopardy of having to payout that $1,000,000 anytime soon. I cant see even the nation's best NFL handicapper getting 201 picks correct. That's 25 more correct picks than they very best listed; that's more of a delta than there was between the top score and the worst score listed.

Everlong's number is incredible. Generally going against the spread you hope to be over 55% and 60% is about as good as it gets.

 

[Prefect]

I ended up going 167-89 (65.2%) picking the games straight up.

 

[IllegalContact]

176-80

didn't come close to winning the pool

 

[Nikolai]

176 for me...good enough for 10th place in my pool.

 

[buile]

I guess this just means "knowing" about football involves a lot more than picking winners and losers.