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Another theory, possible delay means no front 7 projects?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by RayClay, Apr 30, 2011.

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  1. RayClay

    RayClay On the Roster

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    I know nothing, but it's a thought. A DE to OLB is obviously a project, a 3-4 DE that's not used to that position, another.

    Maybe the thought is to proceed with the number of young, or other projects already started last year, then go after blue chippers next year.

    I don't hate Nincovich, in fact I thought he hustled and made some decent plays. Moore looked good and willing and Cunningham is in year two.

    Maybe, in a disrupted season, players that need to learn a lot would be a distraction.

    Two RBs? Just give them the ball and assignment. Much improved secondary means more time to get to the QB too.

    I think we'll pick up a situational rusher, but anyone think that might have been a factor?
  2. Dufflebagz

    Dufflebagz Rookie

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    That's an interesting theory. It's a possibility and I have to think BB had some kind of concerns about the DE/OLB's to take the other players over them.
  3. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The conversion is a huge issue with OLB, lockout or not.
    1st, and 2nd round picks are tremendously valuable commodities.
    ANY player we draft to be a 34 OLB will have never played the position before.
    No college teams play 2 gap 34 with OLBS that are large enough to fit our system.
    Most college teams have DEs that are smaller than our OLBs.
    Virtually every prospect that could be drafted to play OLB for us played DE in college and has played his entire football life with different techniques assignments and responsibilities than they will have here.
    Contrary to popular belief the failure rate is enormous.

    How does it not make sense that the position that is obviously the hardest to evaluate is the one BB is least willing to use his most valuable picks on?

    As far as 2 RBs, aside from Woodhead, we have zero RBs under contract. (Maybe we have Clayton, but he is lucky to make the 53 for a game or 2)
    BJGE is an RFA. There is no question that it is possible that the result of the labor dispute could be to eliminate the RFA distinction and make those players UFAs. Even if not, this is 1000 yard RB that a team may overpay on an RFA offer. Even if not, he will be a UFA next year.
    Honestly, does anyone here think we should pay BJGE what the average 1000 yard RB makes?
    So, there is a worry that he may not be here even this year, and a big concern that he may not be here beyond this year.
    If either happen, it will be very important that we have both of these RBs.
    See, if you really try to analyze and not just whine because your guy didnt get picked, sometimes the answers are pretty clear.
  4. Sciz

    Sciz PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The OLBs and DE that could help the team immediately went at 7, 11, and 14. Nobody else other than Wilkerson or Heyward projected as a future starter, and NOBODY else is an upgrade over what the Pats had. I don't think it is as much of the projection and learning a new position as it is there not being the right player available.
  5. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Even Heyward is a big stretch for our 2 gap. While he probably has the tools to be a 2 gap player, he didnt play it in college and has a 1 gap mentality. I hate to draw the comparison, but Heyward and Gholston were very similar players at OSU. I admit I was hoping for Heyward, because I'm a Buckeye fan, and he is a beast but he is better in a one gap, and I fear he would have been disinterested in the 2 gap.
    Wilkerson has work ethic issues which is a huge red flag to me when you couple it with the lower competition level.
  6. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    :confused2:

    The OT and QB would seem to run counter to this theory, but maybe he looked at those positions as more forgiving due to what he expects to be in front of those players.
  7. AzPatsFan

    AzPatsFan Rookie

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    A useful thought... It is much better than the all the other guys who only know:

    B1tch, b1tch, b1tch, moan, piss, and cry. Did you look at the record, 14-2, not 2-14. While Ninko and Cunningham were both starting for the first time.

    Go follow a loser like the still expansion Cleveland Browns if your not happy...

    I intend to say the same to all the predictable ass cavities who know zero!
  8. Triple-T

    Triple-T Rookie

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    THANK YOU! This is just about the best post of the day. Someone finally trying to understand the moves in the full context of the team.

    I've been consistently reading these forums for years, although rarely post. I've been too busy to even read much lately, but came back the past few days to get up to speed on what happened with the draft, read all the negative comments on the draft and remembered why I don't post much.

    Each post and opinion is inherently based on a frame of assumptions and I, for the life of me, can't understand why so many actually begin with the assumption that Belichick doesn't know what he is doing. By no means is anyone flawless. Did he make a mistake these past few nights? Who knows. Maybe, but did anyone else make a mistake? HELL YA!

    Everyone made a mistake tonight, but none of them know what it is yet, but they will. The one thing I can say is that I have every confidence that if my team made a mistake, they have the exact mental makeup to try to identify it and not make it again. I KNOW I can't say that for too many other teams. I know they'll make the same mistakes again and again to the point of comedy.

    We could go on and on, but with Kraft and Belichick in charge, we've had more success than any other team and way much more than most. I don't know who could deny that. They are there at the end of year, every year, rain or shine. So to make the assumption that somehow they are not capable, if not the most capable, is just plain silly. They are some of the best at running a sports team as there has ever been. If you start from that assumption, then by all means question their thinking and try to find the logic, but to demonize them is just not rationale.
    (i'll get off my soap box now.)




    Getting back to the original post.
    I think we saw Belichick doing exactly what he always promises to do; get the best value he can in the draft. I think that is a combo of pick, player, risk and team positional depth. I have no values on any of that, so my guess is Belichick felt he had starter quality openings for these players or too much value.

    Solder is somewhat obvious. He is the #3 T at the minimum and if Light leaves or moves to guard, Solder is a starter. I assume Light leaves or moves to G.

    For Dowling, I also see #3 behind McCourty and Bodden. That makes him a nickel or nickel replacement for one of the other two and that is starter quality minutes.

    For the two RBs, I see them immediately replacing Taylor and Morris, but Faulk may need to be replaced too. One of them will likely get starter quality minutes at some point if BJGE gets dinged.

    With Mallett, I think it was a case of too much value. He was so good for his slot in the Pats' eyes that they couldn't pass it up. He certainly fills the #3 backup spot, but could quickly challenge for #2. Or not. He might suck eggs and be out of football in two years. Whatever, he's the 5th pick and they are getting more. Might be a mistake.


    For positions not filled, we didn't do squat on the front 7, so you have to look at what Belichick might think of what he has. On the D-Line we ended the season missing 4 starter quality players in Ty, Brace, Wright and Pryor. They all come back. Add in Wilfork, Stroud and maybe no player stood a chance for the value of their pick position.

    OLB, I don't like our talent. I'm hopeful with Cunningham, but TBC is not the answer, Nink is pretty good, Moore was a nice find, but he needs to show he can sustain it and be consistent. My best guess is that Belichick knows what he needs and it's just too hard to find in the draft with too much risk for his liking. He likes steady growth. So the only thing he can do is take low-risk projects, Vrabel, Nink, Moore, Cunningham, Mincey, etc or buy what he wants Colvin, Thomas. It sucks royally that Thomas turned out to be such a turd. It certainly didn't look that way at the time. Bust on that one.

    So, maybe he's about to go buy what he needs again and make a splash in FA. Or maybe Belichick may really like the way his low risk projects are paying off and may think with his D-line back that he has what he needs. That would be great, but strikes me as mid to high risk, so I'm betting on another FA here. And at that point, I don't see too many open positions left on this team, except for an OG and a couple project WRs or one decent FA.

    I look back on last year as an awesome 14-2 team that lost almost it's entire D-Line over the last few games and it was too much to overcome. Throw in a sub-par Brady due to injury and we lost. It really sucked, but our team was really good and getting better every game. This is a team on the rise that could have easily have won the super bowl last year with better breaks. To suggest that we are at the beginning of the end is crazy talk and not worth a response.
  9. eagle eye

    eagle eye Rookie

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    Come on, you are as bad as the the guys you are complaining about. One guy moans, you moan about the moaner. Get out of it.

    Its a tough time for Pats fans every year. They have all these players they'd like to see the Patriots draft and when they get none right they are disappointed.

    Personally I don't get like that because I prefer to deal with drafts in hindsight. Look at the players we got and how they have done because thats the only time you know how good or bad a draft was. And its not usually that bad because most of the Patriots early draft picks do become starters.

    As for what the op says, personally I see all the players coming back from injury last year(and we were hurt by injuries last season) and the Patriots are in pretty decent shape heading into next season if it happens at all that is. I think we are pretty much all set on D because I do expect Cunningham to leap forward in his second year. We have Wilfork and very good competition for the front 3 with the addition of Stroud and a returning Warren, Wright and Brace from injury and there is good depth behind those guys too. If Ninkovich can improve at the same rate as he did between 2009 and 2010 he could be one hell of a player, you got TBC as well and lets not forget Eric Moore who did a decent job when given the opportunity last season.
  10. jefmblrd

    jefmblrd Rookie

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    Thank you...some great "perspective" posts here that make a lot of sense. I find that I need some time to process the draft in its totality and come to my own conclusions and was finding that the negativity from the boards was coloring the way I was feeling about our first round-hence I stayed away for all of the second and much of the third.

    While I have the utmost respect for BB and the Patriots organization, I don't however blindly follow their lead and have no problem criticizing them when I feel it's warranted. We all know they make mistakes, and those have been well-documented here over the years, but we also know how the draft is, as Bill Parcells put it, an inexact science. But having said that, I also realize that BB knows much more than I do, and I have to come to the conclusion that he passed over players like Jordan, Heyward and others because he didn't see them as a fit or to use his vernacular, didn't see the value in picking them at that certain spot. Will some of the players we passed over become stars, of course they will-but does that mean they would have been stars in our system? Maybe or maybe not-we'll never know.

    I'm in the process of going back and closely analyzing the players we have taken in the first three rounds to mold my own opinion of our choices over the past two days and will continue that process into the season and well beyond, as we all know it really takes years to fully analyze the success of a draft class.

    In the meantime, I hope the labor issues are cleared up as soon as possible, so these guys can participate in OTAs and mini-camps, and I can head out to Foxboro to watch some training camp practices and see the new additions for myself.

    While I would have liked to have seen an impact defensive front seven player drafted in the first three rounds like many other people on the boards, I'm also looking forward to seeing Dowling in there at corner, nickel and even safety at times as we have certainly proven that you can't have enough good corners/Dbs over the past few years. And I'm looking forward to seeing the new young RBs in there as well, as our age at that position has certainly caught up with us-although I'll really miss Faulk if he doesn't return.

    It's pretty clear that if we want to get back and win the Super Bowl, we have to improve our third down defense-I was as frustrated as anyone last season when teams would convert third and longs on too frequent a basis, and we all know how detrimenal those plays can be to winning big games. So as I start to put things in perspective, I have to think that Dowling will help with that and another year of experience for some of our younger players should help with that as well. I'm not convinced the problem is solved, but I'm thinking that it will be improved at least some.

    So reading some of the other posts in this thread and thinking as I have written this have both helped me to "process" what has transpired over the past two days and at least begin to put our draft in some kind of perspective for myself. We'll just have to wait and see how it all turns out in the end.
  11. hellolin

    hellolin Rookie

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    you know we are not just drafting for value, we are also drafting for the future, compare to what other teams do, they just draft players for "the next year"
  12. RayClay

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    Don't know why you quoted me with that answer, I'm not one complaining. I agree with most everything you said and wanted to note that we already have tons of young players and a possibly truncated training camp.

    Bruschi noted we might be "too young" also. Just trying to bring a fresh angle. When you quote someone and bring up a bunch of items, it indicates the person you quote is disagreeing with all your points, when the opposite is true here.
  13. vyrago

    vyrago Rookie

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    "I know nothing...."

    The only line of this post I disagree with. Great post.
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