A cure for insomnia (2017 offseason plan)

[micronin127]

moderator edit: breaking this up into multiple posts for better readability and responses.


Offensive Line (12)
Andrews, David (24) - C
Barker, Chris (26) - G
Cannon, Marcus (28) - T
Douglas, Jamil (24) - G
Farris, Chase (23) - G
Jackson, Tre (24) - G
Karras, Ted (23) - G/C
Mason, Shaq (23) - G
Solder, Nate (28) - T
Thuney, Joe (24) - G
Vollmer, Sebastian (32) - T
Waddle, LaAdrian (25) - T

RFA (1)
Fleming, Cameron (24) - T

Comments:
Lots of youth at Guard with Karras and Jackson looking to break through and compete with starters Mason and Thuney. Three returning practice squad players: Barker, Douglas, and Farris. With such a logjam of returning interior players, not sure that they will devote a ton of draft capital here if they project any of their developmental players to improve, like Wendell and/or Connolly developed under Coach Scar.

Tackle is stable with two returning veteran starters, but they are both 28. Could even see Solder getting extended. Fleming should get tendered with compensation at the level of his draft round (round 4). Waddle couldn’t crack the game day roster. Seems like a developmental guy could displace either Fleming or Waddle. I expect Vollmer to retire.

All five starters are returning from a group that was above average. These guys won’t be confused with the Dallas Cowboys offensive line, but they work hard and take coaching. If we draft an offensive lineman, I would expect it to be a tackle. If we sign an offensive lineman, I would expect it to be a C/G.

 

[micronin127]

Tight End (2)
Gronkowski, Rob (27)
Housler, Rob (28)

ERFA (1)
Lengel, Matt (26)

RFA (1)
Williams, Michael (26)

UFA (2)
Bennett, Martellus (29)
Scruggs, Greg (26)

Comments:
Gronk isn’t getting any younger and I expect him to start the year on PUP, mainly because they’ll try to manage his health to ensure that he is available in the postseason. I expect that Bennett will want as many years and as much money as he can get on what is likely to be his last big contract. We will lose him as someone other than us will pay him. We’ll tender Lengel and I bet Williams gets non-tendered. Already signed another TE to a futures contract, Rob Housler.

I fully expect us to grab a Tight End early in the draft. This is a good year to draft a TE as there are more than a few good ones. This would address the need for some youth at this position. I just hope we don’t go after the injured one, Jake Butt. We’ve already got an injured one. Not opposed to taking Butt later on after we’ve already drafted a healthy one. Doubling up on TE makes sense to me this year based on good prospects in the draft.

 

[micronin127]

Wide Receiver (5)
Amendola, Danny (31)
Edelman, Julian (30)
Hogan, Chris (28)
Lucien, Devin (23)
Mitchell, Malcolm (24)

UFA
Floyd, Michael (27)

Comments:
I expect Amendola to accept a cut with incentives to earn back some. We are returning the core four, so not much work to do here. They’ll let Floyd go unless he really wants to stay on a one-year deal to rebuild his value. If he can get big money elsewhere, the Patriots will let him go. Depending on the conditions of his house arrest, he may sign after the window where it counts towards the compensatory draft pick formula. I think he gets out of prison three or four days into the league year, but then another 90 days or so with some type of house arrest. Not sure how they do that in Arizona.

I don’t expect the Patriots to draft a Wide Receiver at all. Maybe day 3. They might bring a veteran or two to camp like they did with Nate Washington last year.

 

[micronin127]

Running Back (5)
Foster, DJ (23)
Gaffney, Tyler (25)
Gronkowski, Glenn (23)
Lewis, Dion (26)
White, James (25)

UFA (2)
Blount, LeGarrette (30)
Develin, James (28)

Comments:
We’re set for receiving backs. They even used Dion Lewis a bit as a feature back, but that is what we need. I expect they’ll re-sign both LeGarrette Blount and James Develin mainly because they are worth more to us than anyone else.

This is a position that could stand a big upgrade. Also, the draft is loaded with good running backs. I doubt we take one in the first round, but I’d expect one to be taken on day two, either 2nd or 3rd round.

 

[micronin127]

Quarterback (3)
Brady, Tom (39)
Garoppolo, Jimmy (25)
Brissett, Jacoby (24)

Comments:
This group is perfect as-is. I expect they’ll listen to offers for Garoppolo, but they will not give him away. If they get their asking price, then I’d feel good rolling with Tom and Jacoby, but it would require us to draft another QB this year or next. I prefer to keep the wolf pack intact, but if we get a first round pick it might be too good to pass up.

 

[micronin127]

Defensive Line (6)
Brown, Malcom (23)
Flowers, Trey (23)
Grissom, Geneo (24)
Hamilton, Woodrow (24)
Kilgo, Darius (25)
Valentine, Vincent (22)

UFA (3)
Branch, Alan (32)
Long, Chris (31)
Sheard, Jabaal (27)

Comments:
We need an edge rusher. I’ll list Ninkovich with the LBs though he contributes as a rusher too. Could resign any of our UFAs, Branch contributed the most to 2016. Long has a great motor, and had a knack for drawing holding calls, but he’s older and his sack total is low. Sheard will likely get paid elsewhere. His value to us is as a rotational player, another team will pay him like a starter, so he’s likely gone.

I really expect us to draft an edge rusher early in the draft. And the draft is loaded with them. Good for us.

 

[micronin127]

Linebacker (6)
Bates, Trevor (23)
Freeny, Jonathan (27)
McLellin, Shea (27)
Ninkovich, Rob (33)
Roberts, Elandon (22)
Van Noy, Kyle (25)

UFA (1)
Hightower, Dont’a (26)

Comments:
Hightower is the straw that stirs the drink. He’s had a few injuries, but he has also played through them and been available and contributing for both Super Bowl wins. They have to franchise him and then work it out with him on a long-term deal. If they don’t they’ll have to take a linebacker in the draft and the kid from Ohio State might be there when they pick at 32, Raekwon McMillan. That feels like a sideways move, like when they let Dave Wohlabaugh go and then had to draft Damien Woody in the first round. If they franchise Hightower, they might pay him $2 million more for 2017 than his value, but they spent almost 1.5 million for 4 games of Michael Floyd last year, so they could figure it out.

Draft has a lot of hybrid LB/S types and it would be good to get a LB who can actually cover a TE or RB on the wheel route.

 

[micronin127]

CB (4)
Coleman, Justin (23)
Jones, Cyrus (23)
Jones, Jonathan (23)
Rowe, Eric (24)

RFA (1)
Butler, Malcolm

UFA (1)
Ryan, Logan (26)

Comments:
They have to tender Butler for at least 1st round compensation. That is the level that I predict which is over $4 million for 2017. He’s worth #1 cornerback money which is pretty steep. Would love to see a long-term deal here as he is a Patriot.

Logan Ryan is a sure tackler and he will be missed. I predict that of our free agents he will get the biggest deal. 5 years and over 50 million on the open market. Or more. I’m not saying he is worth that, but if the market will pay him that, then he is worth that to someone.

We have to draft a CB early in this draft. There are so many good CBs in this draft. There is no way we can just roll the dice with Cyrus Jones and Eric Rowe. Both of them could make big strides and come back better than ever, or they could each be streaky and inconsistent. I think you can never have enough good CBs.

 

[micronin127]

S (3)
Chung, Patrick (29)
McCourty, Devin (29)
Richards, Jordan (24)

UFA (1)
Harmon, Duron (26)

Comments:
We need some depth at safety. I am all for re-signing Duron Harmon, but that all depends on his market. I do not list Nate Ebner and Brandon King here with the safeties for the same reason I didn’t list Matthew Slater with the wide receivers. There will be a ST section.

I think we are fine with our starters and are looking for depth, maybe we can find that on Day 3 of the draft.

 

[micronin127]

ST (6)
Allen, Ryan (26)
Cardona, Joe (24)
Ebner, Nate (28)
Gostkowski, Stephen (33)
King, Brandon (23)
Slater, Matthew (31)

UFA (1)
Mingo, Barkevious (26)

Comments:
Mingo is only back for a veteran minimum w/small signing bonus. It’s unclear if he can even make the team next year as he could be replaced by next year’s hot UDFA or late round pick that has a higher ceiling.

It might be time to bring in a UDFA to compete with Gostkowski. He was shaky in 2016, especially on extra points. He’s also highly paid. I think he gets 2017 to turn it around and any kicking prospect we find lands on the practice squad. We definitely don’t draft a kicker, it would be UDFA if anything.

 

[micronin127]

Summary:

So, with our first four draft picks (1,2,3,3): TE, DE, CB, RB

If we get more day 1 or day 2 picks for Garoppolo, then we can do even more. I predict we spread out the Garoppolo bounty over two years; a 2nd rounder this year and a 1st rounder next year.

 

[Tony2046]

Fantastic job Micro. Definitely a good start to the conversation.

I took the information from a guy who calculated the success rates by position and by round and put into an excel chart.

What stats tells us about the draft by round

His numbers were based on the drafts from 2005- 2014.

It is simply based on if a player started at a position for at least half of his career. It doesn't differentiate between stars and JAGs. Only if you started.



I know this is a stat thing and that you can find players in every round but I found it interesting.

 

[supafly]

Gronk isn’t getting any younger and I expect him to start the year on PUP, mainly because they’ll try to manage his health to ensure that he is available in the postseason

I get where you're going with this, but I don't think we can make assumptions about whether or not he'll be ready to go in Sept. when it's only February.

He's got another 6+ months to heal and is already lifting weights and working out. I'm good either way, although we'd all prefer to see as much #87 as possible.

 

[jmt57]

Fantastic job Micro. Definitely a good start to the conversation.

I took the information from a guy who calculated the success rates by position and by round and put into an excel chart.

What stats tells us about the draft by round

His numbers were based on the drafts from 2005- 2014.

It is simply based on if a player started at a position for at least half of his career. It doesn't differentiate between stars and JAGs. Only if you started.

View attachment 16428

I know this is a stat thing and that you can find players in every round but I found it interesting.

I would love to have access to the raw data (and time to scrutinize it). Specifically, to look at a comparison of those first and second round picks that became starters versus win-loss success with the teams that drafted that player.

Without the benefit of that analysis, I am going to guess that the RB and WR early round player success does not equate to team success for drafting a player at that position that early.


Interesting data, thanks for posting that here.

 

[Batman]

I would love to have access to the raw data (and time to scrutinize it). Specifically, to look at a comparison of those first and second round picks that became starters versus win-loss success with the teams that drafted that player.

Without the benefit of that analysis, I am going to guess that the RB and WR early round player success does not equate to team success for drafting a player at that position that early.


Interesting data, thanks for posting that here.

I agree without raw data it doesn't give great detail, I would love to see DE vs DT, Interior OL and Tackles, ILB or OLB and also rates of UDFA starters by position.


It is a good snap shot of draft success. It tells me that given our need at LB that it would be a good place to go in R1 if we don't trade out

 

[mgteich]

I would love to have access to the raw data (and time to scrutinize it). Specifically, to look at a comparison of those first and second round picks that became starters versus win-loss success with the teams that drafted that player.

Without the benefit of that analysis, I am going to guess that the RB and WR early round player success does not equate to team success for drafting a player at that position that early.


Interesting data, thanks for posting that here.

Yes, on average teams overpay in draft capital for WR's and RB's.

 

[mgteich]

We had a SB quality team; I believe that we would have another Super Bowl quality team if were to re-sign all of our free agents. We do need some youth at DE and LB, but that needn't be the top free agent priority.
======
So, for me, this off-season is NOT about plugging holes, except for those created by players who move on.

 

[tasmlab]

Good read.

If injuries stay low, Pats should be favored heading in the AFCCG again. Seems like BB and crew have figured out how to get there like they are doing it from memory. Six in a row is looking more like a system than luck or a competition.