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A concrete look at trade "value," in players

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by patchick, Apr 29, 2013.

  1. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #11 Jersey

    I thought it would be interesting to make some of the abstract trade valuations concrete, using this year’s first-round trade as an example. What does pick #29 really mean, vs #52 + 83 + 102 + 229?

    Below are the actual players selected in those slots for a dozen years, from 2009 (the most recent draft class I figured we can judge thoroughly) back through 1998. I leave it to you to judge for yourself which side came out ahead in each year, below. But for summary purposes, I did a rudimentary career coding:

    Plaintext = Little impact
    Italics = Contributor
    Bold = Multi-year starter
    Bold Italics = Pro-Bowler

    If we define "quality player" as multi-year starter or better, then picking #29 yielded a quality player in 8 of the 12 years (8 QPs total), while #52 + 83 + 102 + 229 yielded a quality player in 11 of the 12 years (16 QPs total). Especially given that a first-round pick typically represents a major investment at a position of major need and is thus given every opportunity to start, that looks like a resounding win for the trade down.

    The number of Pro-Bowlers was even, with 2 on each side.


    2009 WR Hakeem Nicks vs. DE David Veikune + WR Brandon Tate + CB Donald Washington + WR Manuel Johnson
    2008 DT Kentwan Balmer vs. DE Quentin Groves + G Jeremy Zuttah + DE Jeremy Thompson + CB Cary Williams
    2007 G Ben Grubbs vs. FB Brian Leonard + DE Charles Johnson + DE Brian Robison + WR John Broussard
    2006 C Nick Mangold vs. WR Greg Jennings + S Anthony Smith + S Calvin Lowry + S Willie Andrews
    2005 CB Marlin Jackson vs. OT Khalif Barnes + WR Chris Henry + S Sean Considine + QB James Kilian
    2004 WR Michael Jenkins vs. OT Jacob Rogers + G Stephen Peterman + CB Will Poole + K David Kimball
    2003 LB Nick Barnett vs. LB Chaun Thompson + DE Sam Williams + G Montrae Holland + FB Andrew Pinnock
    2002 OT Marc Colombo vs. DE Anthony Weaver + NT Charles Hill + K Jeff Chandler + DE Stylez White
    2001 DT Ryan Pickett vs. WR Chris Chambers + LB Brian Allen + LB Matt Stewart + WR Ken-Yon Rambo
    2000 WR Jay Soward vs. CB Ike Charlton + OT Damion McIntosh + CB David Barrett + DT Ron Moore
    1999 DE Dimitrius Underwood vs. DT John Thornton + DE Tom Burke + WR Dameane Douglas + TE Mike Lucky
    1998 RB John Avery vs. WR Tony Simmons + DE Greg Spires + DE Lorenzo Bromell + C Kevin Long
  2. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    This seemed like a good place to copy and paste our trade from April. Not the 7th traded to TB (Mr. Blount) :

    Minnesota Vikings: Acquire pick No. 29 in 2013.
    -- At No. 29, Minnesota selects Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee.

    New England Patriots: Acquire picks No. 52, No. 83, No. 102 and No. 229 (traded to Tampa Bay) in 2013.
    -- At No. 52, New England selects Jamie Collins OLB, Southern Mississippi.
    -- At No. 83, New England selects Logan Ryan CB, Rutgers.
    -- At No. 102, New England selects Josh Boyce WR, TCU.
  3. everlong

    everlong Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    Not sure what Boyce will be but even if Patterson turns into a pro bowler if Ryan and Collins continue on the path they are it's still and epic win for the Pats.
  4. everlong

    everlong Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    Patchick great concept and read. Its an imperfect comparison because of who's picking the groceries at different spots it's even but as an average it's very telling.
  5. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I believe Patterson made the Pro Bowl this year (as an alternate) as KR.

    Regardless, BB doesn't care much about Pro Bowl selections, which are generally based on splash plays and gaudy stats (and on reputation); BB cares about situational execution, consistency ("dependability is more important than ability") and a team-first approach.

    The bottom line is that BB passed up a very talented receiver/returner who was a questionable fit for our approach, and in return has gotten at least 2 quality rookies so far, one of whom clearly has pro bowl potential, plus a solid WR prospect in Boyce and part of a trade for the guy who has been our offensive MVP down the stretch.

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