5 Key to Victory: Pats-Saints

[They_Hate_We]

my .02 (this is a repost-I orginally stuck it in a dead link)

Brees- very quick reads, very quick release. his quick outs, screen sets, pocket presence, and adjustments at the LOS are very bradyesque. His problems come from his size. He's very prone to blocked passes and deflections. a lot of his INTs come from deflections. IMO, shrinking the pocket (not necissarily sacks) is key here.

RBs- Mike Bell and Pierre Thomas will see 10 - 14 touches each. the Saints never overwork either one, so there are always fresh legs. Bell loves to lower his head and initiate contact. I see one of the Brandons fixing that quick.

Bush- should play. despite the overhype, you must hawk him. He dances way to much, and gets tackled by the ankle. but in open space he can be deadly. BB's too smart to give him that open space, so I think he'll be neutralized.

TE's- Dave Thomas has been coming on strong seeing a lot of reps recently. Shocky is healthy. This is a very scary part of the Saints Off. With Lance Moore out (a poor man's Welker...led the team in rec's last year), Thomas and shockey have been the "over the middle" guys, and they seem to show up everywhere.

WR's- Colston had a good game last week, but has been inconsistent recently. He's dropping passes and dissappearing for long stretches. I'm sure BB can figure out what other teams are doing to him. If he gets hot though, he has scary good hands and makes crazy circus catches ala Moss (not nearly as fast though). Devery Henderson and Robert Meachum are legit speedy longball threats. The have to be respected.

OL- All pro left tackle Jamal Brown is on the IR. Bushrod and Strief are the guys to beat to make life hell for Brees. Both have been needing help in protection. Stinchcomb on the right side is ok, but he's known to turnstyle a few here and there. Middle of the line is pretty solid. Sacks and pressures almost always come from the outside. I think Big Vince will handle them though.

DT- Sedrick Ellis should be back this week. he's the big run stuffer up the middle. Saints D has been absolutely bludgeoned up the middle by RBs in recent weeks. A steady diet of eLMo and Law Firm will keep the Saints O off the field.

DE- Charles Grant and Will Smith are paid as the best players on this D (i think that's open to debate). The Saints count on them for pressure so they can rush only 4. Smith is having a good year, but he's not Freeney. Grant shows up from time to time but I feel is overrated.

LB- Vilma's the big chief here and seems to enjoy the 4-3 a lot more than his Jet days. He's no Mayo, but a heck of a playmaker. Shanle and Fujita are serviceable if uninspiring.

CB- Porter is out, and Greer is questionable. Jenkins is a stud in the making, but still has very few reps under his belt. Brady should abuse these corners.

S- Harper is having a career year in this D. One of the big playmakers for this D. Sharper is playing good as well, but has had to play back to protect the rookie CB.


Keys to the game -

don't abandon the run. Saints D is opportunistic, but is different when smacked in the face. Ask DeAngelo Williams, Michael Turner and Stephen Jackson. Brady is more than capable of beating the Saints throwing it 50 times, but why? Keep the Saints Offense off the field

Abuse the DBs. they'll have help over the top, but these guys can't cover Moss. the more panic they can put into the Secondary, the less corner and safety blitzes you'll see (something they do a lot).

pressure the left side. The LTs of the Saints are pedestrian. Strief got burnt 3 times last week from a DE on the bucs that was almost inactive.

Get big at the pocket. Sacks are tough on Brees, but blocked and tipped passes are common. He gets really aggrivated.


Final score Pats 34 - Saints 21:singing:

 

[mayoclinic]

S- Harper is having a career year in this D. One of the big playmakers for this D. Sharper is playing good as well, but has had to play back to protect the rookie CB.

I think you're getting the safeties confused.

Keys to the game -

don't abandon the run. Saints D is opportunistic, but is different when smacked in the face. Ask DeAngelo Williams, Michael Turner and Stephen Jackson. Brady is more than capable of beating the Saints throwing it 50 times, but why? Keep the Saints Offense off the field

Abuse the DBs. they'll have help over the top, but these guys can't cover Moss. the more panic they can put into the Secondary, the less corner and safety blitzes you'll see (something they do a lot).

pressure the left side. The LTs of the Saints are pedestrian. Strief got burnt 3 times last week from a DE on the bucs that was almost inactive.

Get big at the pocket. Sacks are tough on Brees, but blocked and tipped passes are common. He gets really aggrivated.


Final score Pats 34 - Saints 21:singing:

Good thoughts.

I agree with collapsing or shrinking the pocket. I think we play a 3 man core line that tries to push the pocket back and shrink it. That should hopefully limit Brees' options, get some pressure on him, and hopefully clog his passing lanes and result in some tipped balls. Outside pressure (and possibly some rushes up the middle) will come from a lot of different guys and angles, to keep Brees off balance.

I also agree with not abandoning the running game. Teams that have given the Saints trouble have run on them effectively. The Dolphins ran for 137 yards, the Falcons for 161, the Panthers for 182 and the Rams for 141, all well above NO's 115.7 YPG average. In contrast, the vaunted Giants running attack rushed for only 84 yards against the Saints. Assuming the Pats put some points on the board early and aren't playing catchup (a reasonably assumption given that the Pats have dominated the 1st half of most games and the Saints have been slow starters), I very much hope the Pats will pound the ball at the Saints and not go to a shotgun-based short passing offense. I think we are a much more physical team than the Saints, and that their defense will wear down by the 4th quarter much the way Denver wilted in the 4th quarter against Pittsburgh.

Brady also needs to keep taking some shots long to keep stretching the field. We pretty much abandoned the long pass in the 2nd half against Indy and the Jets. I don't think the Saints corners can stay with us, and as long as we stay away from Sharper we should be safe. I'd like to see Brady distribute the ball the way he did against the Colts, with a variety of receiving options, especially the TEs. Watson can stretch the field if Moss is doubled.

 

[They_Hate_We]

I think you're getting the safeties confused.

Actually, that was what I meant to say. Sharper gets a lot of the press with the INTs, but Roman Harper is actually tied with Vilma for the team lead in tackles. He's a big key in the Saints D

 

[Patspsycho]

I was thinking more 3-3-5 and 3-2-6 mixed in with 3-4, and the pass rush/blitz coming from different directions.

My thinking on believing that we will go 3-4 in the base is because Brees has had trouble handling the 3-4 (see: Miami game) and his OL is messy in terms of sealing the edges on outside rushers. That in addition to the run-stopping we will have to do, makes it my choice. However, as of late we've spent a lot of time in sub packages (more than the base) so probably a mute point.

 

[JSn]

We could be looking at the tackles being Light and LeVoir. Interesting...

Ian R. Rapoport (RapSheet) on Twitter

From indoor #Pats practice: No Fred Taylor (ankle), no Sebastian Vollmer (head), no Julian Edelman (arm). Light working at LT, LeVoir at RT

 

[BionicPatriot]

We could be looking at the tackles being Light and LeVoir. Interesting...

Ian R. Rapoport (RapSheet) on Twitter

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

We need Vollmer I just like him better than Light at LT.

BTW wtf do they mean when they say "head" Did he sustain a head injury of some sort? I can only really think of a concussion which we would of had to heard about by now.

 

[mayoclinic]

Chris Gasper posted his 3 keys to the game today:

1. Winning the turnover battle
2. The rushing game
3. Red zone execution

Hmmm ... those sound kind of familiar. Pretty reasonable, though, if you ask me.

Patriots video brought to you by Boston.com

 

[mgteich]

They should seem familiar. They could be listed as the three key factors in any close game.

Chris Gasper posted his 3 keys to the game today:

1. Winning the turnover battle
2. The rushing game
3. Red zone execution

Hmmm ... those sound kind of familiar. Pretty reasonable, though, if you ask me.

Patriots video brought to you by Boston.com

 

[SAINT ANGER]

Chris Gasper posted his 3 keys to the game today:

1. Winning the turnover battle
2. The rushing game
3. Red zone execution

Hmmm ... those sound kind of familiar. Pretty reasonable, though, if you ask me.

Patriots video brought to you by Boston.com

Saints are ranked #1 in 2 of those keys, and #5 in the other. Those 3 keys define what Saints have been doing all season...thus 10-0.

 

[ausbacker]

Saints are ranked #1 in 2 of those keys, and #5 in the other. Those 3 keys define what Saints have been doing all season...thus 10-0.

The Saints are also ranked 15th in passing yards per game which happens to be a strength of the Patriots. The Saints are 1st in quarterback rating against, 1st in interceptions, 20th in +40 yard plays and 10th in 20+ yard plays. Once more it comes down to turnovers. If Brady and the offense minimize mistakes, the Saints secondary is brutally vulnerable as they give up big chunks of yards.

Let's face it, the Saints haven't faced anyone as good as Brady. This is their litmus test.

 

[mayoclinic]

They should seem familiar. They could be listed as the three key factors in any close game.

We won 2/3 against the Colts (turnovers and rushing) but lost the red zone battle, and lost the war.

 

[mayoclinic]

Saints are ranked #1 in 2 of those keys, and #5 in the other. Those 3 keys define what Saints have been doing all season...thus 10-0.

I agree the Saints have been good in all 3 areas. Not sure where you get your stats from though.

The Saints are currently #5 in rushing at 154.3 YPG, and are also giving up 115.7 YPG. Pats average 113.8 YPG, give up 109.4 YPG. Advantage = Saints.

Saints are #1 in turnovers but #4 in turnover differential. Pats are #3 in turnovers but #2 in turnover differential. Advantage = even.

Saints were #5 in red zone efficiency last I heard (I get that data 2nd hand, so it could be incorrect), Pats much lower around 25th-28th. Advantage = Saints.

 

[sleepingbunch]

One key stat(unofficial, but pretty accurate) about Brees is that when he does turn the ball over, which he has been doing at a huge rate the last 5 weeks before Tampa, they come in multiples. He RARELY has a game where he only has one interception or just one fumble, he either gets none or he has 2 or 3. This is key imo against such a good team as the patriots, since if Brees does turn it over then the floodgates could definitely open and turn it into a blowout fast. Brady is much better at protecting the ball, so he is much less likely to return the favor like other opponents have.

Also, people mention the blitz and how Brees' numbers shoot up against the "blitz". He, like any other quarterback has done well against INEFFECTIVE blitzes. Look no further than the Bills game or against the Dolphins to see Brees' numbers where they actually got to him. The key is confusing teh line, which has been done much more effectively against the 3-4 teams they have faced this year: Miami and Jets, Brees had fairly mediocre games in both. If you line up and don't really attempt to disguise the rushers and confuse the offensive line, then it doesn't matter how many you send because Brees(and probably most other quarterbacks) will recognize it.

Attacking the offensive tackles should be a priority for the Patriots, moreso than trying to bring heat up the middle. The Saints boast one of the best guard tandems in the league and have a formidable center as well, but the two tackles are definitley shaky compared to teh interior. Stinchcomb is good but not great, he never gets absolutely dominated but he does get pushed into the backfield quite a bit and seems to be susceptible to the strong bull rushes. Both of the guys who have been alternating at left tackle seem to have trouble agianst quick inside spin moves. Both tackles probably won't get beat around the edges, but are defiantely attackable with inside moves and bull rushes.

I understand your reasoning.

Your analysis of the O-Line is pretty spot on. However, the only success teams have really had getting to Brees has been blitzing up the middle.

Drew has amazing, Brady-esque pocket awareness. His ability to step up into the pocket to avoid an outside rush is uncanny. I can't count how many times a speed rusher got around one of the tackles only to have Brees side-step him (great peripheral vision) and throw a dart down the field.

Up the middle blitzes can theoretically work because of Drew's height (realistically 5'11) and because stepping up in the pocket obviously does him no good in that situation. However, since the middle of our O-Line is our strength, that's been very hard for teams to do.

 

[sleepingbunch]

my .02 (this is a repost-I orginally stuck it in a dead link)

Brees- very quick reads, very quick release. his quick outs, screen sets, pocket presence, and adjustments at the LOS are very bradyesque. His problems come from his size. He's very prone to blocked passes and deflections. a lot of his INTs come from deflections. IMO, shrinking the pocket (not necissarily sacks) is key here.

RBs- Mike Bell and Pierre Thomas will see 10 - 14 touches each. the Saints never overwork either one, so there are always fresh legs. Bell loves to lower his head and initiate contact. I see one of the Brandons fixing that quick.

Bush- should play. despite the overhype, you must hawk him. He dances way to much, and gets tackled by the ankle. but in open space he can be deadly. BB's too smart to give him that open space, so I think he'll be neutralized.

TE's- Dave Thomas has been coming on strong seeing a lot of reps recently. Shocky is healthy. This is a very scary part of the Saints Off. With Lance Moore out (a poor man's Welker...led the team in rec's last year), Thomas and shockey have been the "over the middle" guys, and they seem to show up everywhere.

WR's- Colston had a good game last week, but has been inconsistent recently. He's dropping passes and dissappearing for long stretches. I'm sure BB can figure out what other teams are doing to him. If he gets hot though, he has scary good hands and makes crazy circus catches ala Moss (not nearly as fast though). Devery Henderson and Robert Meachum are legit speedy longball threats. The have to be respected.

OL- All pro left tackle Jamal Brown is on the IR. Bushrod and Strief are the guys to beat to make life hell for Brees. Both have been needing help in protection. Stinchcomb on the right side is ok, but he's known to turnstyle a few here and there. Middle of the line is pretty solid. Sacks and pressures almost always come from the outside. I think Big Vince will handle them though.

DT- Sedrick Ellis should be back this week. he's the big run stuffer up the middle. Saints D has been absolutely bludgeoned up the middle by RBs in recent weeks. A steady diet of eLMo and Law Firm will keep the Saints O off the field.

DE- Charles Grant and Will Smith are paid as the best players on this D (i think that's open to debate). The Saints count on them for pressure so they can rush only 4. Smith is having a good year, but he's not Freeney. Grant shows up from time to time but I feel is overrated.

LB- Vilma's the big chief here and seems to enjoy the 4-3 a lot more than his Jet days. He's no Mayo, but a heck of a playmaker. Shanle and Fujita are serviceable if uninspiring.

CB- Porter is out, and Greer is questionable. Jenkins is a stud in the making, but still has very few reps under his belt. Brady should abuse these corners.

S- Harper is having a career year in this D. One of the big playmakers for this D. Sharper is playing good as well, but has had to play back to protect the rookie CB.


Keys to the game -

don't abandon the run. Saints D is opportunistic, but is different when smacked in the face. Ask DeAngelo Williams, Michael Turner and Stephen Jackson. Brady is more than capable of beating the Saints throwing it 50 times, but why? Keep the Saints Offense off the field

Abuse the DBs. they'll have help over the top, but these guys can't cover Moss. the more panic they can put into the Secondary, the less corner and safety blitzes you'll see (something they do a lot).

pressure the left side. The LTs of the Saints are pedestrian. Strief got burnt 3 times last week from a DE on the bucs that was almost inactive.

Get big at the pocket. Sacks are tough on Brees, but blocked and tipped passes are common. He gets really aggrivated.


Final score Pats 34 - Saints 21:singing:

Pretty decent analysis. Couple of comments, having watched the Saints all year.

- You're completely spot on about the method of attacking Brees. The problem is that the interior of the line is excellent, so very few teams have been able to collapse the pocket from the inside.

- Colston deserves a little more credit. While he can disappear, it very rarely happens in big games, and trust me, this is a huge game for the team. I would be shocked if he didn't make some plays. Colston has Randy Moss's ability to use his height advantage to out-jump corners for the ball consistently. Lack of game-breaking speed is what keeps Colston from Moss's elite class.

-Stinchcomb, the RT, can be beat by speed rushers, but is an amazing downfield blocker (especially on screens and dump-offs to the RB)....that's where we best utilize him.

- if Sedrick Ellis is healthy, our run defense is instantly hugely upgraded. We didn't start getting gashed by opposing running backs until we lost him (i think around wk 7), and then it seemed like every RB was gashing us from that point forward. Without Ellis, you guys can definitely run on us if Maroney is playing well. With Ellis, I'm not so sure.

- the problem with outside pressure on brees is that you can beat the tackles, but that doesn't mean you'll get to him. Brees has a very quick release, and is great at stepping up in the pocket.

- I have no idea how we will stop Moss and Welker if Porter and Greer are both out. Malcolm Jenkins has been a pretty good rookie corner, but has shown lapses and can be burnt. We picked up Chris McAllister and Mike McKenzie (presumably for this game) - two savvy vets. Lets hope they have something left in the tank. Moss is scary, and Welker is a pain in the ass.

- Our defense leads the league in takeaways. We WILL take chances and can get burnt for the big play, but we find it worthwhile because we also create many turnovers.

I can see you guys scoring 34, but have absolutely no idea how you guys are going to hold the Saints to 21. Expect an epic monday night shootout!

 

[JSn]

Wouldn't it be wild if this was a 10-7 game?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Wouldn't it be wild if this was a 10-7 game?

I'd prefer Patriots 59, Saints 0.

 

[They_Hate_We]

I can see you guys scoring 34, but have absolutely no idea how you guys are going to hold the Saints to 21. Expect an epic monday night shootout!

lol....it's my attempt at positive thinking. but probably more "wishful" thinking. This is going to be an awesome game

 

[Nikolai]

Wouldn't it be wild if this was a 10-7 game?

I've wondered that too actually. It seems when too many people start predicting shootouts, you inevitably end up with a defensive battle.

 

[mayoclinic]

I can see you guys scoring 34, but have absolutely no idea how you guys are going to hold the Saints to 21. Expect an epic monday night shootout!

I have a hard time not seeing the Pats scoring in the 30's, unless we really kill ourselves with penalties, turnovers and lack of red zone execution. We've averaged 38+ PPG in the NFL over the past 5 games (best in the NFL), and even 32 PPG if you take out the 59-0 Tennessee massacre. We put up 30+ PPG on two of the top scoring defenses in the NFL the past 2 weeks (Indy and the Jets). Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Pats hang 40+ if they are in sync. My biggest concern is that they'll kill a lot of red zone opportunities and only end up with 24-27 points.

I could see the Pats defense holding the Saints to under 20 points IF everything fell right. The Jets held the Saints offense to 10 points (with 14 scored by the defense). NO is a notorious slow starter. Miami and Carolina both held NO to under 10 points in the first half. If the Pats get up early then it will be hard for the Saints to maintain offensive balance and diversity, and we will play a nickel or dime most of the time. I don't think Brees has faced a secondary like the Pats' this year, and I doubt he can pull a Manning and come back from 17+ points down, especially if Brady avoids letting the Saints' defense put up points the way they did against Miami and the Jets. I can see the Pats giving up one big play to the NO defense, but not several scores the way other teams have done.

If everything goes the Pats' way I could see a 41-17 game. That's not very likely. If everything goes the Saints' way I could see a 35-20 game. That's not very likely either.

 

[jmt57]

Wouldn't it be wild if this was a 10-7 game?

That's pretty much what I am expecting.

But then the two teams will switch ends of the field and start the second quarter.