2011 Offseason Outlook - Offensive Line

[JackBauer]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

Different QB, which makes a world of difference.

True. But I'm pretty sure if they get back to the Patriots championship model of old, they'd survive marginal talent at one of the OG positions. I mean, they have won it all with guys like Tom Ashworth/Brandon Gorin on the line before.

Of course, none of this changes the fact that I agree Connolly could and should be upgraded. Either him or Koppen, or ideally both.

 

[JackBauer]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

Yeah, Tom Brady can avoid the pass rush and scramble like Ben Roethlisberger.

Tom Brady took a beating against the New York Jets in the 2010 AFC Divisional Playoffs. The New England Patriots offense allowed five quarterback sacks against the New York Jets.

Thank you for recapping the game for me, I was heretofore unaware of the outcome.

You seem to believe Connolly should be ridden out of town. I believe he's a decent reserve lineman. We'll see what the FO thinks soon enough.

 

[ATippett56]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

True. But I'm pretty sure if they get back to the Patriots championship model of old, they'd survive marginal talent at one of the OG positions. I mean, they have won it all with guys like Tom Ashworth/Brandon Gorin on the line before.

Of course, none of this changes the fact that I agree Connolly could and should be upgraded. Either him or Koppen, or ideally both.

In 2004, the New England Patriots starting offensive guards were Joe Andruzzi and Stephen Neal. Neither one of them were considered marginal unlike Dan Connolly.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

Yeah, Tom Brady can avoid the pass rush and scramble like Ben Roethlisberger.

Tom Brady took a beating against the New York Jets in the 2010 AFC Divisional Playoffs. The New England Patriots offense allowed five quarterback sacks against the New York Jets.

In the last several years, Big Ben has been sacked more then almost any Qb in the NFL. The main reason is that he does not sit in the pocket and trust his protection and also waits for his receivers to run their routes.

That was party attributed to Connolly & Koppen as Ellis and Pouha had a total of 3 and Coleman and Pace came in on a LB/DB rush/blitz.

It was also attributed to the Jets confidence that they could move the ball offensively and not worry about the Patriots running the football. They decided not to and going all-in on the pass rush and flooding the passing lanes with 7-8 DBs and LBs.

I think 2-3 of TBs sacks were "coverage sacks" but I'd need to go back and look at the game again,.

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

True. But I'm pretty sure if they get back to the Patriots championship model of old, they'd survive marginal talent at one of the OG positions. I mean, they have won it all with guys like Tom Ashworth/Brandon Gorin on the line before.

Of course, none of this changes the fact that I agree Connolly could and should be upgraded. Either him or Koppen, or ideally both.

The last team to win using the old Patriots model was the 2005 Steelers, just the first year after the rules changes for coverage. I don't think that's coincidental.

 

[ATippett56]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

You seem to believe Connolly should be ridden out of town.

That's what the Colts did to Ryan Lilja after the Super Bowl loss to the Saints. Send a message to the marginal players currently on the New England Patriots roster that failure is not an option.

I believe he's a decent reserve lineman.

You can find a better backup interior offensive lineman in the fourth or fifth round of the 2011 NFL Draft.

 

[JackBauer]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

That's what the Colts did to Ryan Lilja after the Super Bowl loss to the Saints. Send a message to the marginal players currently on the New England Patriots roster that failure is not an option.

You realize in retrospect that was a poor decision by the Colts, right?

You can find a better backup interior offensive lineman in the fourth or fifth round of the 2011 NFL Draft.

Like Rich Ohrnberger?

 

[bucky]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

If Connolly is one of the starting offensive guards for the New England Patriots next season, forget about the Super Bowl.

This is a truly ridiculous statement. Yes, Connolly was the worst OL on the team this year. Still, he started almost every game on the best offense in the NFL. Where was Connolly in the playoffs a year ago when Brady was getting spanked by the Ravens? He was on the bench, so you can't blame that one on him. In fact, the OL performed much better in this playoff game than in the last one.

You cannot overreact to 1 game. The Pats lost because they got outplayed. The Jets played a great game. That Pats did not make any plays defensively and made critical mistakes (dropped passes, botched fake punt, fumbles, penalties, protection breakdowns). You are overlooking the obvious problem - our team is overly reliant on Brady to be great in order to beat good teams. We need to concentrate on building a more balanced team with more playmakers on both sides of the ball, instead of thinking we can build an impenetrable OL.

 

[Shelterdog]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

That's what the Colts did to Ryan Lilja after the Super Bowl loss to the Saints. Send a message to the marginal players currently on the New England Patriots roster that failure is not an option.

You can find a better backup interior offensive lineman in the fourth or fifth round of the 2011 NFL Draft.

And how did dumping Lilja work for the Colts? He was a decent starter for the Chiefs and the Colts had a grab bag of awful at his spot.

Connolly was good enough to earn the job and hold onto it. Pro football focus has him ranked as essentially average. He got blown up a few times but he didn't get penalized. He's a meh player; he's not going to win you any games and if you have a bunch of Connollys playing then you're not going to win a ton of games, but every team has weak spots and the Pats were good enough with him playing to go 14-2 and beat every team that made the conference championships.

I also don't think that your fourth or fifth round rookie is likely to be a better guard than Connolley for the 2011 Patriots. No one is saying he's great but he's had seven years on NFL teams, seven years of strength training, four years in the Patriots' system, 19 pro starts. You might get lucky and get a fourth rounders who's better than him right off the bat but that would take a whole lot of luck.

If you want a good chance of improving on Connolly in the draft in 2011 you probably have to use a first or a second.

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

This is a truly ridiculous statement. Yes, Connolly was the worst OL on the team this year. Still, he started almost every game on the best offense in the NFL. Where was Connolly in the playoffs a year ago when Brady was getting spanked by the Ravens? He was on the bench, so you can't blame that one on him. In fact, the OL performed much better in this playoff game than in the last one.

Connolly is not a starting caliber offensive lineman. This is not because of one game. This is because of his entire NFL career.

And how did dumping Lilja work for the Colts? He was a decent starter for the Chiefs and the Colts had a grab bag of awful at his spot.

Connolly was good enough to earn the job and hold onto it. Pro football focus has him ranked as essentially average. He got blown up a few times but he didn't get penalized. He's a meh player; he's not going to win you any games and if you have a bunch of Connollys playing then you're not going to win a ton of games, but every team has weak spots and the Pats were good enough with him playing to go 14-2 and beat every team that made the conference championships.

I also don't think that your fourth or fifth round rookie is likely to be a better guard than Connolley for the 2011 Patriots. No one is saying he's great but he's had seven years on NFL teams, seven years of strength training, four years in the Patriots' system, 19 pro starts. You might get lucky and get a fourth rounders who's better than him right off the bat but that would take a whole lot of luck.

If you want a good chance of improving on Connolly in the draft in 2011 you probably have to use a first or a second.

Cutting Lilja was a mistake that the Chiefs were happy to see the Colts make. But, that's what happens when you're willing to throw everyone under the bus in order to keep your QB happy. However....

Connolly did not earn a starting job. The starting line would have been Light/Mankins/Koppen/Neal/Vollmer, but Mankins was holding out. That resulted in Kaczur replacing Mankins. It was only when Kaczur went down that Connolly got the spot. He was the #3 choice for the job. He got the job by default.

 

[Shelterdog]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

Connolly did not earn a starting job. The starting line would have been Light/Mankins/Koppen/Neal/Vollmer, but Mankins was holding out. That resulted in Kaczur replacing Mankins. It was only when Kaczur went down that Connolly got the spot. He was the #3 choice for the job. He got the job by default.

He was obviously the number four guard going into the season but they could have used Ohrnberger/Wendell/Larsen (who started in Tampa)/Ojinaka/a street pick-up to replace him if he was _that_ dreadful. Why didn't they? Presumably because Scar and BB thought that despite his limitations-and again I'm not saying he's a budding all pro, he's clearly limited-he was good enough and knew the system well enough that he was the best option available.

I'm all for improving the interior of the o-line and I'd love to draft his replacement but lets not confuse a fairly average player with a terrible player.

 

[bucky]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

Connolly is not a starting caliber offensive lineman. This is not because of one game. This is because of his entire NFL career.

I assume when you make statements like this, you can back it up with something other than your personal opinion? Perhaps you've studied the performance of every Guard in the NFL over this past season and graded each of them?

As far as I know, Connolly started almost every game for the best offense in the NFL.

 

[mcsully]

We need help on OL and I am sure BB will add draft picks to this position

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

I assume when you make statements like this, you can back it up with something other than your personal opinion? Perhaps you've studied the performance of every Guard in the NFL over this past season and graded each of them?

As far as I know, Connolly started almost every game for the best offense in the NFL.

Connolly has played in the NFL for 5 seasons. He's never been named the starter on a team with all its linemen healthy and available. The only starts he has in his career are injury/holdout replacement gigs with the Patriots in 2009 and 2010.

He was the team's 3rd option last year at left guard, and the team's #4 guard overall. That's not a true starter. That's a backup pressed into a starting role.

There's a difference.

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

He was obviously the number four guard going into the season but they could have used Ohrnberger/Wendell/Larsen (who started in Tampa)/Ojinaka/a street pick-up to replace him if he was _that_ dreadful. Why didn't they? Presumably because Scar and BB thought that despite his limitations-and again I'm not saying he's a budding all pro, he's clearly limited-he was good enough and knew the system well enough that he was the best option available.

I'm all for improving the interior of the o-line and I'd love to draft his replacement but lets not confuse a fairly average player with a terrible player.

Best option available doesn't make him a starting caliber player. For example, if the Celtics lost all of the team's centers and had to sign some stiff out of retirement to be the starter until the injured players returned, that doesn't mean that the stiff is truly a starting quality center. As for Ohrnberger/Wendell/Larson/Ojinnaka to date, that's a damning indictment of the front office right there. The hope is that either Ohnrberger or Wendell step it up and reward the team's patience or the team brings in better players to replace them.

 

[Shelterdog]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

Connolly has played in the NFL for 5 seasons. He's never been named the starter on a team with all its linemen healthy and available. The only starts he has in his career are injury/holdout replacement gigs with the Patriots in 2009 and 2010.

He was the team's 3rd option last year at left guard, and the team's #4 guard overall. That's not a true starter. That's a backup pressed into a starting role.

There's a difference.

I guess I don't get your point.

Is Connolly a current of future all pro/pro bowl/above average starter? Of course not.

Is he capable of being a serviceable starter for the Patriots in 2011 if the rest of the line is solid? Yes, he demonstrated that in 2010.

Can you realistically improve on him for the 2011 Patriots? Sure, but unless the internal options leapfrog him, it will cost you. You probably need to use a pretty high draft pick or a fair amount in free agency to get someone who will be better than him next year, and if Mankins goes that means you need to get two guards who are better than him.

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

I guess I don't get your point.

Is Connolly a current of future all pro/pro bowl/above average starter? Of course not.

Is he capable of being a serviceable starter for the Patriots in 2011 if the rest of the line is solid? Yes, he demonstrated that in 2010.

That's where you and I disagree.

Can you realistically improve on him for the 2011 Patriots? Sure, but unless the internal options leapfrog him, it will cost you. You probably need to use a pretty high draft pick or a fair amount in free agency to get someone who will be better than him next year, and if Mankins goes that means you need to get two guards who are better than him.

Mid round draft picks often beat out other backup level players in their rookie season, and interior line is a place where it happens routinely. Connolly is a backup level player.

 

[Shelterdog]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

That's where you and I disagree.



Mid round draft picks often beat out other backup level players in their rookie season, and interior line is a place where it happens routinely. Connolly is a backup level player.

I think you're massively overrating how good mid round offensive linemen ususally are as rookies. I'd be surprised if someone not picked in the top 75 is able to beat out Connolly next year.

EDIT: For example, in the 2010 draft 8 OGs and Cs were drafted in rounds 3-5 and only one, JD Walton, started more than a game.

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

I think you're massively overrating how good mid round offensive linemen ususally are as rookies. I'd be surprised if someone not picked in the top 75 is able to beat out Connolly next year.

EDIT: For example, in the 2010 draft 8 OGs and Cs were drafted in rounds 3-5 and only one, JD Walton, started more than a game.

The 2009 draft featured Vasquez and Caldwell taken in rounds 3-5. Also, just because a player didn't start in his rookie year, you're assuming that they wouldn't have been better than Dan Connolly. I don't buy that argument. A guy like John Asamoah is a perfect example. From all reports, the Chiefs love the guy, but they had the luxury of letting him sit behind Waters and Lilja.

 

[Shelterdog]

Re: 2011 Offseason Outlook - Linebacker

The 2009 draft featured Vasquez and Caldwell taken in rounds 3-5. Also, just because a player didn't start in his rookie year, you're assuming that they wouldn't have been better than Dan Connolly. I don't buy that argument. A guy like John Asamoah is a perfect example. From all reports, the Chiefs love the guy, but they had the luxury of letting him sit behind Waters and Lilja.

Well those two played but the other six interior linemen (Urbik, Luigs, Ohrnberger, Greene, Duke Robinson and Herman Johnson) picked in rounds 3-5in 2009 did nothing as rookies.

I'll be pleased as punch if the Pats draft a guy in the third round or later who takes Connolly's job but I don't see it happening. Connolly's a lot better than you think and rookies are a lot crappier than you think.