1stQ to Decide Jets-Pats Game, by Same Guy Who "Had Stats" Why Jets Would Win 12/6

[DaBruinz]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

You don't lose games in the first quarter.

Good teams don't lose games in the first quarter. Bad teams do.

 

[DaBruinz]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

1. Jets don't have to cover them as much as keep the receivers in front of them. You don't get it. I was saying that the passes caught on the Jets for the most part were short passes in space. The point is not to let that space occur. The only time a pass was thrown deep that hurt us

This just doesn't make sense. On all the plays you mentioned, the Pats receivers made at least one Jets player miss.

2. Jets had their running game going in that game too. Greene averaged 4.9 YPC and LaDanian 4.7 YPC. Sanchez just didn't play well. He def has to play better in order for the Jets to win.

Well, you like ignoring things, so lets ignore the 3 runs that Greene and Tomlinson had that were over 10 yards.. That gives Tomlinson 9 rushes for 33 yards and Greene 12 rushes for 40 yards. That's a whopping 3.67 YPC for Tomlinson and 3.33 for Greene. Not what I call (getting it going)...

3. Different team...different O-line...different system.

Same WHINY Baby in Tomlinson...

4. Revis covered a Branch for a bit too. Even drew an offensive pass interference on him.

The offensive PI was absolute BS... Everyone in the world knows it.

Jets loss in that game came down to a lack of basic fundamentals.

On the Deion Branch TD pass...Cromartie allowed a free release from the line of scrimmage and got burned.

Wes Welker practically dragging Drew Coleman with him along the sideline to a TD...not even using the sideline as an extra man like a well coached CB should.

On that 1 yard TD pass to Aaron Hernandez...no one accounted for him coming off of his block in the goal line run formation. Another lack of
fundamentals.

Also, the Jets didn't tackle well. I remember BenJarvus Green-Ellis breaking several tackles many a times.

We completely sh*t the bed. Patriots played exceptionally.

So, you are saying that the Jets lost to the Pats due to a "lack of fundamentals" but now, miraculously, the Jets have those fundamentals ingrained in them?

Sorry, that just doesn't happen. Fundamentals are just that. The basics. The Jets have shown, repeatedly, that they don't have the fundamentals down.

I don't bother with predictions anymore, but I am looking forward to my Pats playing their game and the Jets playing theirs..

 

[Metaphors]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

If the Jets tackle well, like they did during the Colts game, allow little yards after the catch, and play very physical with the receivers, they will fare a lot better than they did before.

Good points, but this is the one that should have you the most concerned. If the Jets coaches and defense consider the effort/execution in the Colts game to be the benchmark for this game, don't bother showing up. As I've mentioned in other threads, the Colts had 4 drives end on failed 3rd and 1 conversions. The problem for the Jets is:

a) The Colts didn't have the YAC to avoid the 3rd down
b) The Colts are terrible running the ball, particularly in running situations

The Pats likely avoid those 3rd-and-1 situations altogether, and even if they don't they are likely to convert them anyway.

Even if you consider Manning and Brady roughly equivalent (just an exercise, hold off on the hate), here is the transition from last week to now:

Rhodes => Woodhead
White => Welker
Tamme => Hernandez

Substitute those players and the Pats OL last week and the Jets are watching the Pats game on TV. It will take a much better effort than what the Jets rolled out Saturday to beat the Pats. If they realize that, they have a chance to catch lightning in a bottle. I'm just not sure that they do.

 

[BrainTrust66]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

Good points, but this is the one that should have you the most concerned. If the Jets coaches and defense consider the effort/execution in the Colts game to be the benchmark for this game, don't bother showing up. As I've mentioned in other threads, the Colts had 4 drives end on failed 3rd and 1 conversions. The problem for the Jets is:

a) The Colts didn't have the YAC to avoid the 3rd down
b) The Colts are terrible running the ball, particularly in running situations

The Pats likely avoid those 3rd-and-1 situations altogether, and even if they don't they are likely to convert them anyway.

Even if you consider Manning and Brady roughly equivalent (just an exercise, hold off on the hate), here is the transition from last week to now:

Rhodes => Woodhead
White => Welker
Tamme => Hernandez

Substitute those players and the Pats OL last week and the Jets are watching the Pats game on TV. It will take a much better effort than what the Jets rolled out Saturday to beat the Pats. If they realize that, they have a chance to catch lightning in a bottle. I'm just not sure that they do.

Great, great post - and it could also read:

Tamme => Hernandez and/or Gronkowski

Look I understand that Jets fans are pysched and proud of their effort last week. They should be - they got over the Manning hump. The problem with projecting that effort to this week's game is that this Manning-led team is a shell of prior Manning-led teams, not to mention that the Colts were only 9-9 (now 9-10) in playoff games in the Manning era anyhow. Beating the Colts in Indy even in years when they were better was never a recipe for continued success (ask the San Diego Chargers about that one).

 

[The Brandon Five]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

Good points, but this is the one that should have you the most concerned. If the Jets coaches and defense consider the effort/execution in the Colts game to be the benchmark for this game, don't bother showing up. As I've mentioned in other threads, the Colts had 4 drives end on failed 3rd and 1 conversions. The problem for the Jets is:

a) The Colts didn't have the YAC to avoid the 3rd down
b) The Colts are terrible running the ball, particularly in running situations

The Pats likely avoid those 3rd-and-1 situations altogether, and even if they don't they are likely to convert them anyway.

Even if you consider Manning and Brady roughly equivalent (just an exercise, hold off on the hate), here is the transition from last week to now:

Rhodes => Woodhead
White => Welker
Tamme => Hernandez

Substitute those players and the Pats OL last week and the Jets are watching the Pats game on TV. It will take a much better effort than what the Jets rolled out Saturday to beat the Pats. If they realize that, they have a chance to catch lightning in a bottle. I'm just not sure that they do.

I couldn't believe they kept giving the ball to Rhodes, who was garbage in that game.

 

[shmessy]

Re: 1stQ to Decide Jets-Pats Game, by Same Guy Who "Had Stats" Why Jets Would Win 12/

I just corrected the title to this thread.

 

[averywhitehall]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

Who can change thread titles? I thought that it would stick after I made it. Patsfans mods must be conspiring against me. I never thought my opinion to be so important.

 

[Coach42]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

The real problem for the Jets is that they go exactly two deep in defensive players who can actually play the pass, Revis all the time and Cromartie most of the time. Everyone else is truly terrible. So even if the Jets take Welker and Branch away with Cromartie and Revis (Branch v. Cromartie is no given win for the Jets) the Pats have favorable matchups everywhere else.

Hernandez v. Pool, Smith, Harris, or Scott Pats win.
Gronkowski v. Pool, Smith, Harris or Scott, Pats win.
Tate v. Coleman, Wilson etc. Pats win
Woodhead v. Harris, Scott, Smith, or Scott Pats win

The problem for the Jets is they don't have the players to matchup with the Pats versatility on offense.

 

[Keyser Söze]

Re: 1stQ to Decide Jets-Pats Game, by Same Guy Who "Had Stats" Why Jets Would Win 12/

Most Jest fans think their team has A LOT more talent, which is funny because of their pathetic evaluations of talent. They still think Cromartie is a lockdown CB when he's a **** who cant tackle or cover.

 

[shmessy]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

Who can change thread titles? I thought that it would stick after I made it. Patsfans mods must be conspiring against me. I never thought my opinion to be so important.

We love ya, babe.

But that "I Have the Stats to Show Why the Jets Will Win on Dec. 6th" thread you made just won't wash out of the laundry when you try to wear the same shirt with this thread. Track records count.

Shame 'bout that.

 

[averywhitehall]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

We love ya, babe.

But that "I Have the Stats to Show Why the Jets Will Win on Dec. 6th" thread you made just won't wash out of the laundry when you try to wear the same shirt with this thread. Track records count.

Shame 'bout that.

Well...I didn't quote stats in this thread to prove that the Jets will win...I did it to show why they lost.

I stand by my previous posts and don't need any laundry done.

 

[ATippett56]

Re: 1stQ to Decide Jets-Pats Game, by Same Guy Who "Had Stats" Why Jets Would Win 12/

See you Sunday.
[/SIZE][/SIZE]

I'm not going to quote your mindless babble. From the second quarter on, the New England Patriots outscored the NY Jets 28 to 3. What is does show, when the going gets tough, the NY Jets implode! Stop with your pathetic hypothetical conjecture.

 

[shmessy]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

Well...I didn't quote stats in this thread to prove that the Jets will win...I did it to show why they lost.

I stand by my previous posts and don't need any laundry done.

How 'bout the socks?

 

[ATippett56]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

Well...I didn't quote stats in this thread to prove that the Jets will win...I did it to show why they lost.

Final Score: New England Patriots 45, New York Jets 3. From the second quarter on, New England Patriots 28, New York Jets 3. Those are the facts, no conjecture, no hypotheticals. In the last eight games, the New England Patriots have scored at least 31 points. Those are the facts, no conjecture, no hypotheticals.

 

[averywhitehall]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

1. This just doesn't make sense. On all the plays you mentioned, the Pats receivers made at least one Jets player miss.



2. Well, you like ignoring things, so lets ignore the 3 runs that Greene and Tomlinson had that were over 10 yards.. That gives Tomlinson 9 rushes for 33 yards and Greene 12 rushes for 40 yards. That's a whopping 3.67 YPC for Tomlinson and 3.33 for Greene. Not what I call (getting it going)...



Same WHINY Baby in Tomlinson...



3. The offensive PI was absolute BS... Everyone in the world knows it.



4. So, you are saying that the Jets lost to the Pats due to a "lack of fundamentals" but now, miraculously, the Jets have those fundamentals ingrained in them?

Sorry, that just doesn't happen. Fundamentals are just that. The basics. The Jets have shown, repeatedly, that they don't have the fundamentals down.

I don't bother with predictions anymore, but I am looking forward to my Pats playing their game and the Jets playing theirs..

1. Not on all the plays...Both of Danny Woodhead's passes were caught and there was not one Jet in front or near him.

The Aaron Hernandez pass for 35 yards were with Lowery on him. Lowery as a CB is faster than Hernandez. He allowed Hernandez to get beside him instead of keeping Hernandez in front of him. Keeping Hernandez in front oh him would have saved about 20 - 22 yards of YAC.

And since they all made players miss tackles as you say...I would respond that the Jets should tackle better..

2. That is a matter of opinion sir. I can see if if they broke a 50 yard run that skewed the statistics...but 3 runs of ten + yards constitutes something of a regularity.

3. Of course...what was I thinking.

4. A lack of fundamentals and poor coaching, yes. Fundamentals are taught, but are perishable and can be forgotten. For instance...CB's are taught to use the sideline as leverage. Basic fundamentals of football, right. But when Welker caught a pass out in space, he ran down the sideline for a touchdown dragging a Jet with him instead of that Jet pushing him out of bounds. Not saying that play cost us the game (it was well out of hand by then), just saying that maybe they get 3 instead of 7. Small things like that need to be retaught at times.

Patriots out played the Jets that game. No doubt about that, and I'm not trying to make excuses; I'm trying to show that The Jets being inept mentallyin the 45-3 game contributed as well as The Patriots dominating the game.

 

[averywhitehall]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

Final Score: 1. New England Patriots 45, New York Jets 3. From the second quarter on, New England Patriots 28, New York Jets 3. Those are the facts, no conjecture, no hypotheticals. In the last eight games, the New England Patriots have scored at least 31 points. Those are the facts, no conjecture, no hypotheticals.

You're kidding yourself if you think an 11-5 team that lost it's other 4 games by a combined 19 points is really as far apart from the Patriots as 45-3.

People who don't know the game only look at the final score. All of us on this forum, who know the game and are more than casual fans, need to look beyond the score.

1. Pats total yards 405 - 301 (326 for Tom Brady vs. 184 for Sanchez)
2. 150 Jets rushing yards - 101 for the Pats
3. 23 Pats first downs to 18 for the Jets
4. Pats TOP 31:01 - 28:59 for the Jets.
5. Pats 4/10 on third down - Jets 3/12
6. Pats 2/2 on 4th down - 2/3 for the Jets
7. 3 Jets Turnovers - 0 for the Pats
8. Red Zone efficiency Pats 5/5 - Jets 0/2
9. Average gain per offensive play 7.0 for the Pats & 4.6 for the Jets.

The red highlighted portion is what killed us. 7 yards per gain for the offense in unacceptable. Big plays killed the Jets. I think 4 or 5 plays of 20+ in the game. Sanchez played a horrible game... But rushing yards, first downs, 3rd & 4th down efficiency, TOP...nearly identical.

There's always more to a game than the final score.

 

[shmessy]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

You're kidding yourself if you think an 11-5 team that lost it's other 4 games by a combined 19 points is really as far apart from the Patriots as 45-3.

People who don't know the game only look at the final score. All of us on this forum, who know the game and are more than casual fans, need to look beyond the score.

1. Pats total yards 405 - 301 (326 for Tom Brady vs. 184 for Sanchez)
2. 150 Jets rushing yards - 101 for the Pats
3. 23 Pats first downs to 18 for the Jets
4. Pats TOP 31:01 - 28:59 for the Jets.
5. Pats 4/10 on third down - Jets 3/12
6. Pats 2/2 on 4th down - 2/3 for the Jets
7. 3 Jets Turnovers - 0 for the Pats
8. Red Zone efficiency Pats 5/5 - Jets 0/2
9. Average gain per offensive play 7.0 for the Pats & 4.6 for the Jets.

The red highlighted portion is what killed us. 7 yards per gain for the offense in unacceptable. Big plays killed the Jets. I think 4 or 5 plays of 20+ in the game. Sanchez played a horrible game... But rushing yards, first downs, 3rd & 4th down efficiency, TOP...nearly identical.

There's always more to a game than the final score.

You rely far too much on statistics, son. Perhaps baseball would be a better fit for you?

Football is much more than statistics. How can one quantify a superb block? How can one measure in units a quarterback's pocket awareness and timing?

It's like the old saying "When opportunity knocked, you were in the backyard searching for four leaf clovers".

You seem like an earnest and good guy with a talent for numbers. However, you are missing some great football games while you bury your eyes in the stat books. Get your head off the calculator and set your eyes on some football - - you'll find it's a wonderful sport.

 

[jmt57]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

7. 3 Jets Turnovers - 0 for the Pats

Rather than be all over the place with over a dozen points, let's stick to one of the three major ones you brought up.

I'm curious what exactly makes you believe that in this game - with Sanchez both outside in January and on the road in Foxboro - that the turnovers in this game will suddenly dramatically change?



In my opinion the fatal flaw to your argument is the same as the first time around: you're spending way too much time looking at numbers and stats, and not enough time watching the games. That is why so many fans of opposing teams have dismissed the Patriots all year long based on stats such as defensive yards allowed, time of possession, and third down percentage.

If you don't take into consideration down and distance, score, and time remaining then all those stats are meaningless. Here are two examples:


Example 1:
Team A: 348 net yards, 131 net yards passing, 4.7 net yards per pass play
Team B: 369 net yards, 244 net yards passing, 6.1 net yards per pass play

Team B wins a close game, right?

Guess again.

Those are stats from week 16 when the Patriots beat the Bills 34-3; care to guess who Team A is and Team B is? Did you see that game? If so, did you ever consider it to be a close game?



Example 2:
I'll keep this one simpler and different from the first example. Week 10 the Patriots beat the Steelers 39 to 26. Pittsburgh has 27 1st downs to the Pats 26, Pats win total net yards 453-425, net passing yards is 350-349, gross passing yards is 350-387, red zone is 3/5 to 2/5, total # of plays is 67-70, etc.

All the stats say the game is much, much closer than the final score, right?

Wrong.

What those stats don't show is that it was 23-3 in the 4th quarter and that almost 50% of Pittsburgh's yards as well as almost two-thirds of their points came in the last eight minutes of the game - after there was very little doubt of the outcome.


Thanks to the internet we are now able to find more stats than we know what to do with. Problem is that though stats work well for actuaries and perhaps for baseball fans, they tend not to work as well for fans of the game of football. Please don't get me wrong because I really appreciate a Jets fan coming in to intelligently discuss his point of view on how and why the Jets could win Sunday - but I'm just having trouble buying it with all these numbers.


These stats are great - but where is the reasoning of how and why they will change?

 

[ATippett56]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

You're kidding yourself if you think an 11-5 team that lost it's other 4 games by a combined 19 points is really as far apart from the Patriots as 45-3.

You're kidding yourself if you think the Jets have a chance. You have been obviously brainwashed by your blowhard head coach.

People who don't know the game only look at the final score.

People who know the game had actually watched the game with their own two eyes.

All of us on this forum, who know the game and are more than casual fans, need to look beyond the score.

1. Pats total yards 405 - 301 (326 for Tom Brady vs. 184 for Sanchez)
2. 150 Jets rushing yards - 101 for the Pats
3. 23 Pats first downs to 18 for the Jets
4. Pats TOP 31:01 - 28:59 for the Jets.
5. Pats 4/10 on third down - Jets 3/12
6. Pats 2/2 on 4th down - 2/3 for the Jets
7. 3 Jets Turnovers - 0 for the Pats
8. Red Zone efficiency Pats 5/5 - Jets 0/2
9. Average gain per offensive play 7.0 for the Pats & 4.6 for the Jets.

The red highlighted portion is what killed us. 7 yards per gain for the offense in unacceptable. Big plays killed the Jets. I think 4 or 5 plays of 20+ in the game. Sanchez played a horrible game... But rushing yards, first downs, 3rd & 4th down efficiency, TOP...nearly identical.

There's always more to a game than the final score.

The final score determines the outcome of the game not how many yards the feeble Jets offense gained on the New England Patriots defense. I guess you don't realize Belichick's defensive philosophy of bend don't break.

The fact is the Jets red zone offense sucks and Mark Sanchez sucks. Why don't you do some research for a change instead of spewing your typical Jets garbage. Here I'll assist you on how the Jets starting quarterback rates:

NFL Stats: by Player Position

Even Chad Henne had a better quarterback rating than Mark Sanchez this season.

How about quarterback completion percentage?

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categoryst...ualified=true&Submit=Go&tabSeq=1&d-447263-p=1