1stQ to Decide Jets-Pats Game, by Same Guy Who "Had Stats" Why Jets Would Win 12/6

[averywhitehall]

Here is how the Jets completely fouled up their chances in the first quarter of the 45-3 game.

1st drive of the game: Patriots return the kickoff to their 21 yard line. They drive to the 23 of the Jets and then get a FG.

Mistake: Jets go no huddle on first offensive possession!

This was clearly a mistake because, even though the Jets pushed the ball to the New England 35, they only used 4:00 of clock time which didn't keep a potent offense off the field for very long. During the drive Rex Ryan committed the next mistake...

Mistake: Rex Ryan challenges a first down spot...then proceeds to go for it anyway!

Dunno why this was done. Replays clearly show that Keller was a shy of the first down. Rex challenged the play anyway, and lost, which was costly.
If Rex doesn't challenge this then maybe he challenges and wins the Brandon Tate, referee discussed, touchdown reception.

After said first drive the Jets had stalled at the Patriot 35, then Rex Ryan clearly made another mistake...

Mistake: Rex Ryan send out Nick Folk, an erratic Field Goal kicker, in cold conditions, into the wind, to try a 53 yard field goal.

Of course he not only missed...he missed terribly. This gave the Patriots 1st & 10 at their own 43 yard line. One pass interference later, The Patriots were 1st and goal and punched it in with the law firm of BenJarvus Green-Ellis.

Score: 10-0 with 4:02 left in the 1st quarter.

Jets get the ball at their own 21 yard line and go 3 downs and out. Here, the next mistake occurs.

Mistake: Steve Weatherford...a punter who tied an NFL record with 42 punts killed inside the 20 yard line, who led the NFL with 27 forced fair catches, who has an average of 42.6 yards...absolutely SHANKS a 12 YARD PUNT!

This mistake hurt the Jets dearly, giving The Patriots the ball at the Jets 32 yard line. 4 plays later...a short Brady pass to Deion Branch turned into a big YAC play that put the Jets behind the 8-ball at 17-0.

At this point...Any game plan the Jets had was starting to go out the window.

A couple of things I want to note:

1. Jets were hurt severely by short passes in which there were tremendous yards after the catch.

1st big yardage play: T.Brady pass short right to 84-D.Branch ran ob at NYJ 23 for 20 yards.
This is the 1st drive of the game. The one that ends in a FG.

2nd big yardage play: T.Brady pass short middle to 39-D.Woodhead to NYJ 32 for 35 yards
This drive occurs in the second quarter after the Jets scored their only points of the game. This drive started from the Patriots 33 yard line and ended in a touchdown...the Brandon Tate touchdown. Danny blocked at the line and no one accounted for him once he released. Easy play.

3rd big yardage play: T.Brady pass short left to 85-A.Hernandez to NYJ 24 for 35 yards. This was after the Mark Sanchez interception during the Jets first drive in the third quarter. This one ended up as a touchdown pass to Wes Welker

4th big yardage play: T.Brady pass short left to 39-D.Woodhead to NYJ 12 for 50 yards. This was a shovel pass on a 3rd and 4 that caught the Jets out of position.

It's obvious on the 4 above mentioned plays that the Jets were thoroughly out-coached. Patriots often caught the Jets out of position many a times, and that was through game planning and such. C'mon folks; if Danny Woodhead is the leading receiver with 4 catches for 104 yards then he got lost in the mix somewhere. I just highlighted 2 catches of his worth of 85 yards.

Tom Brady passed for 329 yards in the game...Tom Brady without the above mentioned 4 plays = 159 passing yards.

If the Jets tackle well, like they did during the Colts game, allow little yards after the catch, and play very physical with the receivers, they will fare a lot better than they did before.

2. Will Bellichick play more conservative? There is one play in particular I am referring to. Patriots up 10 - 0 in the first quarter. After gaining 19 yards on 3rd and 23 the Patriots faced 3rd and 4. The offense stayed on the field and went for it, successfully of course, gaining a touchdown. In the playoffs...does Bill Belichick go for it on 4th & 3 up, ten - zip, or does he play for the FG? You know your coach better than I do...do you think he would worry about the backlash of not getting the first down if he went for it on 4th & 3?

See you Sunday.

 

[andrewgarrr]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

You don't lose games in the first quarter.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

So if Brady sucks like Sanchez and Sanchez can somehow play like Brady, the score will be closer.

It's pretty hard to constitute a "close" 45-3 game

 

[patsfanboy]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

The pats will always play 60 minutes football.

 

[PatriotsInGA]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

That was the past. I'm looking forward to Sunday.

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

So, if the Jets offense, defense, special teams and coaches all do a better job in the first quarter of the game, the Jets will have a better shot.


Got it.

 

[PatsDeb]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

Here is how the Jets completely fouled up their chances in the first quarter of the 45-3 game.

1st drive of the game: Patriots return the kickoff to their 21 yard line. They drive to the 23 of the Jets and then get a FG.

Mistake: Jets go no huddle on first offensive possession!

This was clearly a mistake because, even though the Jets pushed the ball to the New England 35, they only used 4:00 of clock time which didn't keep a potent offense off the field for very long. During the drive Rex Ryan committed the next mistake...

Mistake: Rex Ryan challenges a first down spot...then proceeds to go for it anyway!

Dunno why this was done. Replays clearly show that Keller was a shy of the first down. Rex challenged the play anyway, and lost, which was costly.
If Rex doesn't challenge this then maybe he challenges and wins the Brandon Tate, referee discussed, touchdown reception.

After said first drive the Jets had stalled at the Patriot 35, then Rex Ryan clearly made another mistake...

Mistake: Rex Ryan send out Nick Folk, an erratic Field Goal kicker, in cold conditions, into the wind, to try a 53 yard field goal.

Of course he not only missed...he missed terribly. This gave the Patriots 1st & 10 at their own 43 yard line. One pass interference later, The Patriots were 1st and goal and punched it in with the law firm of BenJarvus Green-Ellis.

Score: 10-0 with 4:02 left in the 1st quarter.

Jets get the ball at their own 21 yard line and go 3 downs and out. Here, the next mistake occurs.

Mistake: Steve Weatherford...a punter who tied an NFL record with 42 punts killed inside the 20 yard line, who led the NFL with 27 forced fair catches, who has an average of 42.6 yards...absolutely SHANKS a 12 YARD PUNT!

This mistake hurt the Jets dearly, giving The Patriots the ball at the Jets 32 yard line. 4 plays later...a short Brady pass to Deion Branch turned into a big YAC play that put the Jets behind the 8-ball at 17-0.

At this point...Any game plan the Jets had was starting to go out the window.

A couple of things I want to note:

1. Jets were hurt severely by short passes in which there were tremendous yards after the catch.

1st big yardage play: T.Brady pass short right to 84-D.Branch ran ob at NYJ 23 for 20 yards.
This is the 1st drive of the game. The one that ends in a FG.

2nd big yardage play: T.Brady pass short middle to 39-D.Woodhead to NYJ 32 for 35 yards
This drive occurs in the second quarter after the Jets scored their only points of the game. This drive started from the Patriots 33 yard line and ended in a touchdown...the Brandon Tate touchdown. Danny blocked at the line and no one accounted for him once he released. Easy play.

3rd big yardage play: T.Brady pass short left to 85-A.Hernandez to NYJ 24 for 35 yards. This was after the Mark Sanchez interception during the Jets first drive in the third quarter. This one ended up as a touchdown pass to Wes Welker

4th big yardage play: T.Brady pass short left to 39-D.Woodhead to NYJ 12 for 50 yards. This was a shovel pass on a 3rd and 4 that caught the Jets out of position.

It's obvious on the 4 above mentioned plays that the Jets were thoroughly out-coached. Patriots often caught the Jets out of position many a times, and that was through game planning and such. C'mon folks; if Danny Woodhead is the leading receiver with 4 catches for 104 yards then he got lost in the mix somewhere. I just highlighted 2 catches of his worth of 85 yards.

Tom Brady passed for 329 yards in the game...Tom Brady without the above mentioned 4 plays = 159 passing yards.

If the Jets tackle well, like they did during the Colts game, allow little yards after the catch, and play very physical with the receivers, they will fare a lot better than they did before.

2. Will Bellichick play more conservative? There is one play in particular I am referring to. Patriots up 10 - 0 in the first quarter. After gaining 19 yards on 3rd and 23 the Patriots faced 3rd and 4. The offense stayed on the field and went for it, successfully of course, gaining a touchdown. In the playoffs...does Bill Belichick go for it on 4th & 3 up, ten - zip, or does he play for the FG? You know your coach better than I do...do you think he would worry about the backlash of not getting the first down if he went for it on 4th & 3?

See you Sunday.

But see, here's your problem - how are the Jets going to cover any of the above-mentioned receptions any better? If we look at the Jets boards everyone is worried about Welker, and says Revis should be on him. As your analysis points out, Welker wasn't even the receiver on all these big plays. Instead of Revis taking Welker out the game, Welker took Revis out of the game and opened up plays for others (another analysis I read said Revis was on Welker for most of the first half; I can't remember myself).

On the 4th and 3, it depends where they are on the field, the wind conditions and how your team is playing. If BB thinks they have a better shot at making the first down than the figgie, he'll go for it, even in this game, especially if Sanchez is playing like crap (like he was in the game above) and isn't moving the Jets down the field easily. I'd say on the Jets side of the field, any where from the 45 to the 30 he'd go for it, depending on the other conditions stated.

Just about the Jets only shot is to get their running game (or return game) going, both to keep the game out of Sanchez's hands and to keep Brady's time on the field limited. But check out LdT's stats against the Pats in the playoffs - not good. Also, you need to pressure Brady, but not blitz him, because leaving guys open against him won't help you. I'm not sure the Jets have the personnel to do this and cover all of Brady's potential receivers on every play, including the RBs, both of whom can catch (as the Jets learned this last game).

I'd like to say good luck, but I wouldn't really mean it.

 

[Kontradiction]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

Here is how the Jets completely fouled up their chances in the first quarter of the 45-3 game.

1st drive of the game: Patriots return the kickoff to their 21 yard line. They drive to the 23 of the Jets and then get a FG.

Mistake: Jets go no huddle on first offensive possession!

This was clearly a mistake because, even though the Jets pushed the ball to the New England 35, they only used 4:00 of clock time which didn't keep a potent offense off the field for very long. During the drive Rex Ryan committed the next mistake...

Mistake: Rex Ryan challenges a first down spot...then proceeds to go for it anyway!

Dunno why this was done. Replays clearly show that Keller was a shy of the first down. Rex challenged the play anyway, and lost, which was costly.
If Rex doesn't challenge this then maybe he challenges and wins the Brandon Tate, referee discussed, touchdown reception.

After said first drive the Jets had stalled at the Patriot 35, then Rex Ryan clearly made another mistake...

Mistake: Rex Ryan send out Nick Folk, an erratic Field Goal kicker, in cold conditions, into the wind, to try a 53 yard field goal.

Of course he not only missed...he missed terribly. This gave the Patriots 1st & 10 at their own 43 yard line. One pass interference later, The Patriots were 1st and goal and punched it in with the law firm of BenJarvus Green-Ellis.

Score: 10-0 with 4:02 left in the 1st quarter.

Jets get the ball at their own 21 yard line and go 3 downs and out. Here, the next mistake occurs.

Mistake: Steve Weatherford...a punter who tied an NFL record with 42 punts killed inside the 20 yard line, who led the NFL with 27 forced fair catches, who has an average of 42.6 yards...absolutely SHANKS a 12 YARD PUNT!

This mistake hurt the Jets dearly, giving The Patriots the ball at the Jets 32 yard line. 4 plays later...a short Brady pass to Deion Branch turned into a big YAC play that put the Jets behind the 8-ball at 17-0.

At this point...Any game plan the Jets had was starting to go out the window.

A couple of things I want to note:

1. Jets were hurt severely by short passes in which there were tremendous yards after the catch.

1st big yardage play: T.Brady pass short right to 84-D.Branch ran ob at NYJ 23 for 20 yards.
This is the 1st drive of the game. The one that ends in a FG.

2nd big yardage play: T.Brady pass short middle to 39-D.Woodhead to NYJ 32 for 35 yards
This drive occurs in the second quarter after the Jets scored their only points of the game. This drive started from the Patriots 33 yard line and ended in a touchdown...the Brandon Tate touchdown. Danny blocked at the line and no one accounted for him once he released. Easy play.

3rd big yardage play: T.Brady pass short left to 85-A.Hernandez to NYJ 24 for 35 yards. This was after the Mark Sanchez interception during the Jets first drive in the third quarter. This one ended up as a touchdown pass to Wes Welker

4th big yardage play: T.Brady pass short left to 39-D.Woodhead to NYJ 12 for 50 yards. This was a shovel pass on a 3rd and 4 that caught the Jets out of position.

It's obvious on the 4 above mentioned plays that the Jets were thoroughly out-coached. Patriots often caught the Jets out of position many a times, and that was through game planning and such. C'mon folks; if Danny Woodhead is the leading receiver with 4 catches for 104 yards then he got lost in the mix somewhere. I just highlighted 2 catches of his worth of 85 yards.

Tom Brady passed for 329 yards in the game...Tom Brady without the above mentioned 4 plays = 159 passing yards.

If the Jets tackle well, like they did during the Colts game, allow little yards after the catch, and play very physical with the receivers, they will fare a lot better than they did before.

2. Will Bellichick play more conservative? There is one play in particular I am referring to. Patriots up 10 - 0 in the first quarter. After gaining 19 yards on 3rd and 23 the Patriots faced 3rd and 4. The offense stayed on the field and went for it, successfully of course, gaining a touchdown. In the playoffs...does Bill Belichick go for it on 4th & 3 up, ten - zip, or does he play for the FG? You know your coach better than I do...do you think he would worry about the backlash of not getting the first down if he went for it on 4th & 3?

See you Sunday.

 

[Dufflebagz]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

Actually, the games are won in practice the week before the game

 

[strngplyr]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

Nothing in the op's post has anything at all to do with the upcoming game. The game in december is one of the rare instances where a game was actually won early, don't think it will be the same result. 45-3 is always a fluke no matter how good team a is and how bad team b is. And the Jets aren't one fieldgoal bad. Thank god the team doesn't think the way you do or we'd be in for a very long night.

 

[averywhitehall]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

1. But see, here's your problem - how are the Jets going to cover any of the above-mentioned receptions any better? If we look at the Jets boards everyone is worried about Welker, and says Revis should be on him. As your analysis points out, Welker wasn't even the receiver on all these big plays. 4. Instead of Revis taking Welker out the game, Welker took Revis out of the game and opened up plays for others (another analysis I read said Revis was on Welker for most of the first half; I can't remember myself).

On the 4th and 3, it depends where they are on the field, the wind conditions and how your team is playing. If BB thinks they have a better shot at making the first down than the figgie, he'll go for it, even in this game, especially if Sanchez is playing like crap (like he was in the game above) and isn't moving the Jets down the field easily. I'd say on the Jets side of the field, any where from the 45 to the 30 he'd go for it, depending on the other conditions stated.

2. Just about the Jets only shot is to get their running game (or return game) going, both to keep the game out of Sanchez's hands and to keep Brady's time on the field limited. 3. But check out LdT's stats against the Pats in the playoffs - not good. Also, you need to pressure Brady, but not blitz him, because leaving guys open against him won't help you. I'm not sure the Jets have the personnel to do this and cover all of Brady's potential receivers on every play, including the RBs, both of whom can catch (as the Jets learned this last game).

I'd like to say good luck, but I wouldn't really mean it.

1. Jets don't have to cover them as much as keep the receivers in front of them. You don't get it. I was saying that the passes caught on the Jets for the most part were short passes in space. The point is not to let that space occur. The only time a pass was thrown deep that hurt us

2. Jets had their running game going in that game too. Greene averaged 4.9 YPC and LaDanian 4.7 YPC. Sanchez just didn't play well. He def has to play better in order for the Jets to win.

3. Different team...different O-line...different system.

4. Revis covered a Branch for a bit too. Even drew an offensive pass interference on him.

Jets loss in that game came down to a lack of basic fundamentals.

On the Deion Branch TD pass...Cromartie allowed a free release from the line of scrimmage and got burned.

Wes Welker practically dragging Drew Coleman with him along the sideline to a TD...not even using the sideline as an extra man like a well coached CB should.

On that 1 yard TD pass to Aaron Hernandez...no one accounted for him coming off of his block in the goal line run formation. Another lack of
fundamentals.

Also, the Jets didn't tackle well. I remember BenJarvus Green-Ellis breaking several tackles many a times.

We completely sh*t the bed. Patriots played exceptionally.

 

[Triumph]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

Tates TD would not have been over turned if challenged.

The best QB will win this game and we know who that is, dont we?

 

[Patspsycho]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

It going to be cold, boy.

 

[QuinielaBox]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

I don't think the game will be won or lost in the 1st qtr this Sunday. I also don't think it will be a rout one way or the other. I expect a better effort out of the Jets with their professional pride on the line. But as far as coaching matchups go, I think I would put my money on Belichick. And Brady is on some kind of mission. That is bad news for the Hate-riotters and Jet fans. AOG = Airplane On Ground

 

[Patriotic Fervor]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

If, if, if if....

That's all this is - a story of "IF".

What a waste of time.

And effort.

Man up, whiner. Your boys had the same amount of time and resources to prepare for that game as the Patriots. The resulting shellacking forces one to draw some very obvious conclusions.

To wit:

Pats were better prepared;
QB studied more;
Team was better coached;
Team has more talent;
Team plays better in varied conditions;
Team has a better grasp of the game.

The only area, really, where your guys had the edge coming in was in bombast. I'm not quite sure how that translates on to the field, tho.

The team your boys are facing has won 8 straight, almost all of them very convincingly. This 45-3 thing was not a fluke. All 3 sectors of the team are capable of scoring, and in most games that is exactly what happens.

By the same token, the 3 points your boys scored in that game was hardly a statistical anomaly - I believe the Jets, in 4 games this season, failed to score a touchdown.

It's not that the Jets are without talent - they aren't. They have lots.

It's just that this Patriots team has more, in more places, and is used more efficiently.

That's why they're 14-2. And that's why they're Super Bowl favorites at the moment.

And that's why they're going to win on Sunday.

 

[Patriotic Fervor]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

If, if, if if....

That's all this is - a story of "IF".

What a waste of time.

And effort.

Man up, whiner. Your boys had the same amount of time and resources to prepare for that game as the Patriots. The resulting shellacking forces one to draw some very obvious conclusions.

To wit:

Pats were better prepared;
QB studied more;
Team was better coached;
Team has more talent;
Team plays better in varied conditions;
Team has a better grasp of the game.

The only area, really, where your guys had the edge coming in was in bombast. I'm not quite sure how that translates on to the field, tho.

The team your boys are facing has won 8 straight, almost all of them very convincingly. This 45-3 thing was not a fluke. All 3 sectors of the team are capable of scoring, and in most games that is exactly what happens.

By the same token, the 3 points your boys scored in that game was hardly a statistical anomaly - I believe the Jets, in 4 games this season, failed to score a touchdown.

It's not that the Jets are without talent - they aren't. They have lots.

It's just that this Patriots team has more, in more places, and is used more efficiently.

That's why they're 14-2. And that's why they're Super Bowl favorites at the moment.

And that's why they're going to win on Sunday.

 

[PatsDeb]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

1. Jets don't have to cover them as much as keep the receivers in front of them. You don't get it. I was saying that the passes caught on the Jets for the most part were short passes in space. The point is not to let that space occur. The only time a pass was thrown deep that hurt us

2. Jets had their running game going in that game too. Greene averaged 4.9 YPC and LaDanian 4.7 YPC. Sanchez just didn't play well. He def has to play better in order for the Jets to win.

3. Different team...different O-line...different system.

4. Revis covered a Branch for a bit too. Even drew an offensive pass interference on him.

Jets loss in that game came down to a lack of basic fundamentals.

On the Deion Branch TD pass...Cromartie allowed a free release from the line of scrimmage and got burned.

Wes Welker practically dragging Drew Coleman with him along the sideline to a TD...not even using the sideline as an extra man like a well coached CB should.

On that 1 yard TD pass to Aaron Hernandez...no one accounted for him coming off of his block in the goal line run formation. Another lack of
fundamentals.

Also, the Jets didn't tackle well. I remember BenJarvus Green-Ellis breaking several tackles many a times.

We completely sh*t the bed. Patriots played exceptionally.

Oh, I get it. Go back and read your post. The Jets got burned because the couldn't pressure Brady and they couldn't cover everybody. Keeping the receivers in front of you still gives them 5 yards a pop, and Brady will take that every day of the week. The Pats played the way they have been playing the 2nd half of the season. Don't worry, the Jets were in good company. Pittsburgh, Chicago, Buffalo and Miami suffered the same fate. We're hoping for a repeat, as you can imagine.

 

[RayClay]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

Oh, you're a Jets fan. Pretty good breakdown of how they handed the game away in the first quarter.

Sure, it wasn't over, but they dug a pretty deep hole. I don't expect that again, but neither does Belichick. I can see the jets playing overly conservative and ending up with the same result. Or, they could play tighter on defense and give up a bomb instead of all that YAC.

 

[Kid~Brady]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

I love how all of the jests fans are coming up with all of these different reasons and scenarios to justify that 45-3 loss. If Rex Ryan focuses more on the game and film study for this week's game instead of ranting about how "personal" this game is, maybe he'd have a better outcome.

There was no excuse for last game and honestly, alot of people see the same thing happening this game. Whats changed? Really?

 

[Froob]

Re: Jets vs Patriots game will be won/lost in the 1st quarter. Plus more '45-3' analy

I really don't see a blowout this time. I see pats winning a hard fought 24-14 game. Missed field goals will be key. Neither folk or graham are known for being clutch.