AFC Championship Game : Patriots vs. Colts -- Pre-Game Thread

If Ware and Miller couldn't get pressure on Luck then I don't know what to expect for our guys

I'm trusting Bill will put together a defense for 4 QUARTERS that helps us win the game

NYCPatsFan said:

Quick question based on the above:

Ken pointed out in his analysis that the Colts now have Arthur (Chandler's brother), who didn't play the last time against us. Ken pointed out that he is a big body that the Colts D needed a lot, and alluded elsewhere that the Colts D has improved significantly over the last five games.

Thoughts?

thanks!

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It's hard not to agree with that. Arthur Jones is a really good DL, especially at stuffing the run. They've got some meat up front when Jones, Chapman and Jean-Francois are all healthy. Their ILB Jerrel Freeman is undersized but good at getting under blocks.

goheels22002 said:

The Colts are basically in need of improvement in the trenches. They either have inexperienced players or very average veterans on both lines. Their skill players on offense are terrific, especially with the addition of Herron who looked excellent against a good Broncos front seven. Hakeem Nicks has stepped up for them at receiver.

Without Luck, the Colts are a .500 or so team with Hasselback or any of the QBs in the AFC East other than Brady, any of the NFC East QBs, etc. Luck is special. Give him the Cowboys' offensive line and his skill players, and they'd be frightening.

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I would agree on 8-8 with Hasselbeck, but I'd venture that all the other playoff teams wouldn't be much if any better than 8-8 with Hasselbeck.
The point I'm driving at is that while the Colts throw the ball an awful lot, if they had a less effective QB they would not throw so much, but wouldn't turn into the Jags offense. Good QBs with 5-11 teams around them don't go 13-5 and go to the AFCCG.

2) If not the Colts, who? Great question. The Broncos are so Manning-centric, they wouldn't be the #2 team in the AFC right now and even with a healthy Manning they were a paper tiger. The Ravens looked pretty complete on Saturday. I'd rank the AFC: Patriots, Ravens, Colts, Broncos, Bengals, Steelers, Dolphins, Chargers.

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Colts had a better season than the Ravens and a better weekend too. Not sure how giving up 35 points (none off turnovers) to a team that didn't even pretend to run makes them a complete team. They simply cannot defend the pass.

The Buffalo Bills of 2015 with Rex could be a beast. Put a good quarterback in there with their running backs, receivers and that defense and it will be a dog fight.

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The Bills of 15 will be worse than the Bills of 14.
Hiring a bufoon for a coach doesn't make you better.

Tunescribe said:

Yup. It would not surprise me at all to see this game become a 60-minute struggle just like vs. Baltimore. The Pats offense NEEDS a running attack in this game.

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They can and will win without a running attack IF they protect Brady.
Protect Brady and win. That is the singular fact.

TBR said:

If Ware and Miller couldn't get pressure on Luck then I don't know what to expect for our guys

I'm trusting Bill will put together a defense for 4 QUARTERS that helps us win the game

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Ware is useless at this point. Miller does not rush all the time. Denver had little pass rush against us either, yet some teams give us trouble. We seem to like bringing A gap blitzes against Luck.

fightingirish595 said:

I think they would be a bad football team without Andrew luck. So if hasselbeck was the QB. They would be a 4 or 5 win team. I think the Colts and Patriots deserve to be in the final 2 because they won there games and are undefeated in the post season

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We will have to disagree. With an average QB the Colts would be an average team IMO, and would make that average QB look better than average due to the weapons he would have.

As far as deserving to be there, your first comment said this:

fightingirish595 said:

The colts have no business being in this game.

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fightingirish595 said:

All I'm going to say is that the colts would be a 5 win team without luck. The dude is that good.

Edit, this is like elway with the Broncos. The colts have no business being in this game. God bless them if they win this game and the Super Bowl. There here because of One guy

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That's a really ridiculous thing to say. Football is a team sport.

NYCPatsFan said:

Quick question based on the above:

Ken pointed out in his analysis that the Colts now have Arthur (Chandler's brother), who didn't play the last time against us. Ken pointed out that he is a big body that the Colts D needed a lot, and alluded elsewhere that the Colts D has improved significantly over the last five games.

Thoughts?

thanks!

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Arthur Jones played yesterday against the Broncos and was around the ball all day. The Colts looked good against the Broncos, but as we know, Manning was inaccurate and injured. Manning got harrassed some, but if Brady were throwing against the Colts secondary, and they gave him room along the sidelines like they did to Manning, it would balance things out. The Broncos didn't run the ball enough. 20 rushes to 46 passes when your QB is injured and inaccurate against a team that is vulnerable to the run seemed like bad play calling. CJ Anderson was fairly successful running against the Colts, but they didn't stick with it, nor did they give the Colts different looks in the backfield

One asset that the Patriots have in the running game is a diverse attack. Vereen, Blount, Gray, Bolden, and Edelman on sweeps. Expect a lot of different running plays next week. If one of the backs is finding success, the Patriots will keep pounding at that until they stop it. That also leaves those DBs out there having to handle a quick hitting throwing attack. The Colts got steam-rolled last time. I don't see why it will be much different.

The Colts shut down the Cincinnati Bengals in the Wild Card round at home in a game that many people thought the Bengals could win. I don't know what to make of the Bengals. I didn't watch that game, so I don't know if the Bengals caved in to the bright lights again, or if the Colts defense was all that great.

The comment about the Colts getting better defensively? I don't know. They got blown out by the Cowboys 42-7 on December 21st and they handled the Titans and the Texans who were playing without a quarterback.

hambone1818 said:

I think you're either misreading what my point is, or trying to manufacture disrespect where there isn't any. Of course they earned their way here. But the entire point of this thread is to dissect the matchup and talk about strengths and weaknesses and predictions. The Pats happened to match up poorly against the Ravens, with their strong front 7 and good run game. The game this week proved those concerns to be valid, with Forsett gashing them early and Brady getting hit repeatedly in the first half. This week, my opinion is the Pats match up very well against the Colts, whose strengths (dominant QB who's prone to mistakes; very good secondary) and weaknesses (front 7 not too stout, not a great run game) align very well with the Patriots.

This isn't disrespect. This is analysis. Well, amateur analysis at least

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I took your comments to say this is a team we can't lose to unless we sh#t the bed.

Wonder if Jonas Gray will get to play. He seems to have dug himself deep into the dog house. Can't imagine he's back next year if he doesn't even play this week.

Froob said:

Wonder if Jonas Gray will get to play. He seems to have dug himself deep into the dog house. Can't imagine he's back next year if he doesn't even play this week.

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He is a back up. No reason to cut a back up because he isn't active every game. He will be able to compete for a bigger role next year.
He may be active this week. He is in one of those spots that is rotational based on game plan. Do we need an extra RB (esp when we have Bolden who will always be active for sts) or a LB, DB, DL, etc?

fightingirish595 said:

All I'm going to say is that the colts would be a 5 win team without luck. The dude is that good.

Edit, this is like elway with the Broncos. The colts have no business being in this game. God bless them if they win this game and the Super Bowl. There here because of One guy

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I agree, they would be a five win team without Luck, which is why they stand zero chance.

SteelersCanada said:

I disagree heavily that this is the last team the Patriots wanted to play. In fact, I think this is the ideal match up for you guys.

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All one has to do is review an Indy visit to Heinz this year and see how to play the Indy secondary.

betterthanthealternative said:

It appeared that the Colts anticipated the Broncos passing scheme and routes very well. Not only did Manning look worn out, but the entire Denver offense looked predictable. It is difficult to sort out how much of that is on Denver and how much of it is good defense by the Colts.

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Wait, I thought all those hand gestures and OMAHAs meant that Manning could read the defense and audible into a play that works.

AndyJohnson said:

The Bills of 15 will be worse than the Bills of 14.
Hiring a bufoon for a coach doesn't make you better.

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I don't disagree with your other points.

This is a discussion for a different thread, but I think Rex Ryan is a good football coach who found himself in the middle of a circus with an idiot meddling owner, and a player personnel department under Tannenbaum and Idzik that made things go from bad to worse.

I'm surprised he took the Buffalo job, but in the relative media quiet of Buffalo, in a division he knows well, with new owners who have given him a long-term deal, and a team stocked with talent on both sides of the ball, I think Rex will flourish.

If Ryan tries to attract attention by acting the clown rather than focusing on his team, he'll fail. I saw a man humbled by his team's mediocrity and collapse the last three years.

The missing piece is quarterback. EJ Manuel may be the guy now that he's had some seasoning, or maybe they get a solid veteran. Anyway, I was impressed with the Bills with Kyle Orton at the controls. the basics are in place to contend in the AFC.

On another topic, what are the Dolphins thinking by bringing in Tannenbaum?

From the beginning of the playoff seeding, I've thought the Patriots matched up better against the Colts than they did against any other possible playoff opponent. Having that matchup in the AFCCG works out beautifully.

Rob0729 said:

And I already said that I got the Pats' defense vs. the Ravens' offense wrong. I admitted that yesterday. But everyone were saying that if the Pats lose it will because the o-line got Brady killed. I said the Pats would score over 30 points on their defense. I predicted a 31-20 score. I was right on the Pats' side. Wrong on the Ravens' side. Everyone who disagreed with me predicted a low scoring affair.

So you and the rest were not right either. It was a close game, but no one predicted it would be a shoot out with both defenses struggling.

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Actually you were more correct than you give yourself credit.

Bad, bad officiating can never be accounted for in any game. Since that was 10 points, the basic analysis was good.

if you want to say you under estimated they would come out rusty and lethargic...it would be understandable.

I would think that Gray is still dealing with an ankle injury and that Blount is enough to get through the Colts game. Has anyone done any analysis on how the Colts defense is different from a personnel perspective compared to the last time they played? It looks like that the main difference is that Richardson is inactive, and they got Arthur Jones back. Are there any other major differences?

AndyJohnson said:

He is a back up. No reason to cut a back up because he isn't active every game. He will be able to compete for a bigger role next year.
He may be active this week. He is in one of those spots that is rotational based on game plan. Do we need an extra RB (esp when we have Bolden who will always be active for sts) or a LB, DB, DL, etc?

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Hasn't he only gotten like 2 carries since that colts game? I've heard rumors he was causing trouble. Perhaps he wouldn't be on the team if that were the case. Who knows...

Froob said:

Hasn't he only gotten like 2 carries since that colts game? I've heard rumors he was causing trouble. Perhaps he wouldn't be on the team if that were the case. Who knows...

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He's had 20 carries over four games since then.