I respect your opinion mayo. It's all good. I just want to throw it out there that #'s are not the end all be all, but there a good indicator of what a player may become. I've no doubt that production is taken into account when GM's and coaches evaluate a player.
If they had no production, how could anyone evaluate them? Numbers don't mean everything but they can't be ignored. You're post is spot on.
I think that most good draft people feel that the most important things in evaluating a prospect are (1) looking at tape, tape and more tape, which includes an assessment of "production" as well as technical development, and (2) medical reports and interviews. Athletic measurable are nice and can have value, but are secondary. "Production" is hard to assess, because you need to look at what a player was asked to do and the kind of scheme in which they played. We know that BB places high value on things like situational execution and sound fundamentals (tackling, gap integrity), and relatively little value on splash plays that make highlight reels and stats such as sacks; but evaluating a player is much more art than science, and even the best in the business think it's a crapshoot. It's really hard to tell how big a player's heart is, and how they will thrive when pushed beyond their comfort zone/athletic limitations.
I certainly don't have any more answers than anyone else. It's a guess. I try and look at what I think BB values, and the way things seem to be heading in terms of the team's approach. But I recognize that it's quite possibly to miss wildly.
My personal opinion - again, early in the draft process, and subject to change - regarding the 3 guys you have mentioned recently:
1. Ameer Abdullah. Fine prospect. Very good RB. I'd compare him to Bishop Sankey last year. Solid 2nd round pick. I think he'll be off the board before the Pats pick in the 2nd, and I certainly wouldn't use a 1st on a RB. I like Abdullah, but I prefer Tevin Coleman and Jay Ajayi - bigger backs with better receiving skills (and both also with very good production at the college level). I question whether Abdullah will be more than a [very good] 3rd down back in our system. Again, I have nothing against the player, but I don't see him as at the top of my RB list, or likely to fall to the Pats.
2. Nate Orchard. He's a good pass rusher with a great motor and work ethic. A bit like Scott Crichton last year in terms of his motor and willingness to work on every play (though his game is very different from Crichton's). I personally give him a late 2nd/early 3rd round grade, though I'm guessing he'll go high 2nd round. I think he'll carve out a solid NFL career - nothing earth-shaking, but solid - as a situational pass rusher. I question his fluidity in space to be a full time OLB, and his ability to anchor to be a full time DE, and he struggled in a hybrid role earlier this year. He doesn't seem like the best fit for what the Pats do, and I'd be surprised if he ended up a Patriot, but he's certainly a decent prospect.
3. Gerod Holliman. He's a good ballhawk, but he's got signficant fundamental issues in tackling and run support, and questions about a chronic shoulder problem that need to be evaluated. One [anonymous] scout calls him "a mess", and I think that his interceptions overshadow some fundamental issues, so I personally wouldn't consider him before the 3rd/4th round, though I think he'll go sooner than that. It's quite possible that (if the medical issues are resolved) he can be coached up in the fundamentals and become a very good safety, but a lot would depend on the quality of his coaching and his work ethic, intelligence, and perseverence. He's an intriguing prospect, but right now I have a "buyer beware" label on him.
Again, these are just my personal views, and it's still early in the evaluation process. I can't claim any special insight into these prospects, and could easily be wrong.
