If forced to predict, I think Buffalo will be a relatively easy win. They'll likely be a few weeks removed from playoff elimination and NE always handles them the second time around. They might throw a first half scare in before rolling over in the second half (like 2011), but I doubt that game will come down to the wire.
As for Miami, they'll still be in the thick of things, but these two teams have a long track record of dramatic shifts in quality of play based on locale. Even more so when the Miami game is in early and NE is late. I also don't think he first match has any predictive ability when you consider that, sans RB, every position on the team is playing better now than they were then; most substantially so. Could it be close? Sure, but I still see NE winning that game 8 out of 10 times.
"Collapse" may have been too strong a word, but under the assumption that NE beats Miami, then the Patriots could lose three of their next four games - with Miami winning every game here on out except in Foxboro - and NE would still hold the AFCE tiebreaker with a better division record.
Of course, if Miami wins, then any other loss along the way hands control to the Dolphins. But even that scenario requires that Miami wins out, and I consider them underdogs in three of their next four games (@Den, Bal, @NE).
The only real monkey wrench in my plans is the Jets. NE can afford to lose to any of the upcoming teams (for division purposes only, of course, a loss to Indy would make earning a bye difficult), but NY is always a tough matchup and a loss to them would potentially give Miami the tiebreaker again. The good thing is, Miami also faces NY twice and their history with the Jets is as checkered as NE's is.
Ultimately, Miami would need to start playing a lot better than they have lately or NE would need to revert back to their early season form. I don't see either happening, which is why I don't fear the Dolphins.
