Thompson and Dobson tied for 2nd with most drops, Edelman tied for 4th in NFL

Dropped Passes - 2013 NFL Season Statistics

Obviously the "drops" statistic is pretty subjective as to which throws were catchable. Regardless of the actual numbers I think we can all agree the drops by all our WRs this year have been ridiculously high.

Now Im sure people will interpret this information differently but for me this gives me a huge amount optimism for this offense going forward. Its easy to argue that the rookie WRs have been steadily improving each week, and I see drops for WRs much like fumbles for RBs: a correctable mistake. Not sure if its big stage jitters, adjusting to Bradys ball velocity, carelessness or whatever but obviously all 3 WRs need to improve in this category. Add in the fact that we will eventually get our two most sure handed pass catchers, Gronk and Amendola, back sometime (right? one of them has to play 3 games in a row at some point RIGHT?). That means there is a very easy and achievable method to greatly improving this offense: stop dropping the damn ball!

muslimman said:

Dropped Passes - 2013 NFL Season Statistics

Obviously the "drops" statistic is pretty subjective as to which throws were catchable. Regardless of the actual numbers I think we can all agree the drops by all our WRs this year have been ridiculously high.

Now Im sure people will interpret this information differently but for me this gives me a huge amount optimism for this offense going forward. Its easy to argue that the rookie WRs have been steadily improving each week, and I see drops for WRs much like fumbles for RBs: a correctable mistake. Not sure if its big stage jitters, adjusting to Bradys ball velocity, carelessness or whatever but obviously all 3 WRs need to improve in this category. Add in the fact that we will eventually get our two most sure handed pass catchers, Gronk and Amendola, back sometime (right? one of them has to play 3 games in a row at some point RIGHT?). That means there is a very easy and achievable method to greatly improving this offense: stop dropping the damn ball!

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Right on the money.

The right approach to look at this is that despite arbitrary statistics like this, the team is still 5-1. Drops are a correctable issue. The offense only stands to improve as the season goes on.

I'm not (overly) worried about this.

Re: Re: Thompson and Dobson tied for 2nd with most drops, Edelman tied for 4th in NFL

muslimman said:

Dropped Passes - 2013 NFL Season Statistics

Obviously the "drops" statistic is pretty subjective as to which throws were catchable. Regardless of the actual numbers I think we can all agree the drops by all our WRs this year have been ridiculously high.

Now Im sure people will interpret this information differently but for me this gives me a huge amount optimism for this offense going forward. Its easy to argue that the rookie WRs have been steadily improving each week, and I see drops for WRs much like fumbles for RBs: a correctable mistake. Not sure if its big stage jitters, adjusting to Bradys ball velocity, carelessness or whatever but obviously all 3 WRs need to improve in this category. Add in the fact that we will eventually get our two most sure handed pass catchers, Gronk and Amendola, back sometime (right? one of them has to play 3 games in a row at some point RIGHT?). That means there is a very easy and achievable method to greatly improving this offense: stop dropping the damn ball!

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I would value drop percentage over the actual number of drops. Dobson and Thompkins both see a lot of targets and they're not #2 in percentage dropped so that number is flawed.

Brady6 said:

I would value drop percentage over the actual number of drops. Dobson and Thompkins both see a lot of targets and they're not #2 in percentage dropped so that number is flawed.

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This is a good point. If you rank the league by drop % Edelman is 64th worst dropper in the league. It makes sense since he is clearly #1 target in this offense and a 8.2% drop rate over the course of the year is not bad and I believe right around the same rate as Welker in his prime (read pre-2011 SB drop) NE years... My problem with Edelman isnt obvious clear cut drops but more the way he catches the ball. Almost every catch he makes is on his body and many times he unnecessarily jumps in the air. Not only that I get the feeling he doesnt tuck the ball fast enough and a few times Ive seen defenders poke out the ball when it should have been a catch. Im sure Edelman will be the first to agree that he can definitely stand to improve his caught target %.

That said I only put Edelman up there for emphasis as his his raw drop numbers are comparable to the rookies. There is no denying they both had terrible pure dropped ball issues earlier in the year, in my eyes both have improved the last few games in that regard but I definitely have still seen (AD in particular) recent terrible, drive killing drops. Being 5-1 is great but if we expect to continue to win these close games these drops need to go!

If Welker drops a ball...it's proof he's washed up.
But for rookies...just a blemish on their path to greatness.
No "is what it is" on this subject.

Andelman has a 67% catch rate - 2 completions out of 3 or higher is right where youd like to see the NE WRs.

Thompkins has a 42% catch rate - in the past, Brady would not even look at a WR in this range. Thompkins best game was vs the Saints IMO.

Dobbs has a 51% catch rate - same for Dobbs. Andelman had a 50 something % catch rate a few years ago and Brady almost ignored him as an option.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | WIDE RECEIVERS 2013

Look how low the NE WRs are in the standings? Brady is winning with a group thats learning and only gaining more confidence and experience. You can see Dobbs and Thompkins improvement from game 1. Andelman is improving as well making some clutch grabs. I have high hopes for Collie too and if they dont amputate Gronks arm as Dues has implied, his return will surely bring forth positive results.

For the Saints game at least, Brady is back spreading the ball around to multiple targets similar to the Super Bowl championship seasons.

Hooman 4 rec for 57 yards
Dobbs 6 rec for 63 yards
Andelman 5 rec for 57 yards
Thompkins 3 rec for 45 yards

To me, this is a positive sign going forward because the Pats are back winning as a team and not fantasy stat players. No one NE WR or TE is lighting up the NFL. Look what happened when the Pats took away Gonzalez and Graham?

Re: Re: Thompson and Dobson tied for 2nd with most drops, Edelman tied for 4th in NFL

borg said:

If Welker drops a ball...it's proof he's washed up.
But for rookies...just a blemish on their path to greatness.
No "is what it is" on this subject.

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Austin who is also a rookie is #1.

nothing new..we all know Dobson has butter fingers...just hope he fixes it. He must get so nervous during games because at marshall he was fine...

borg said:

If Welker drops a ball...it's proof he's washed up.
But for rookies...just a blemish on their path to greatness.
No "is what it is" on this subject.

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Rookies, Edelman, and Welker have to do better. Dobson is #21 in dropped catch rate, Thompkins #38, Edelman #64, Welker #65. All in the top (i.e., bottom) quarter of receivers in the league.

Only difference is, Welker makes about 10 times more money than each of these guys. Oh, and he is never asked to run fades, deep routes or other plays with lower completion rates and higher degrees of difficulty on the catch. In fact, all he does is run around uncovered 5 yards from the LOS while defenses rightfully focus on stopping Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas and Eric Decker. "It is what it is"

Brady_to_Moss said:

nothing new..we all know Dobson has butter fingers...just hope he fixes it. He must get so nervous during games because at marshall he was fine...

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Still think it might be a case of at Marshall he ran simple routes with a not so great QB so he will have had to make a lot of spectacular catches - which you don't think about it's more of a reaction BUT in New England he has a complex route tree and an all time great getting the ball to him so he has more to think about (am I running the right route? Did I read the defense correctly? etc).

If they dumbed down the playbook for now so Dobson (and Thompkins) might start catching the ball better but on the other hand if you take the rough now by the playoffs and into next season when he's acclimatised to the NFL and the playbook then it should be better in the long run.

Triumph said:

Andelman has a 67% catch rate

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That's a pretty good catch rate for a fat old commentator like Eddie Andelman.

Big-T said:

If they dumbed down the playbook for now so Dobson (and Thompkins) might start catching the ball better but on the other hand if you take the rough now by the playoffs and into next season when he's acclimatised to the NFL and the playbook then it should be better in the long run.

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I don't think that will help at all. With Dobson it seems it's all about confidence. He sees the ball perfect....gets both hands on it and we know the rest. Should catch the dam ball no matter how hard the route is

Let's hope that the rookies can improve their consistency with more experience. I don't recall Gronk and AH having problems with the drops, they were making NFL type plays consistently in their rookie season. I am more optimistic about Collie than I am about the rookies and Edelman. To me they fall in the category of the players that make great plays when the opposing team don't expect them.

Palm Beach Pats Fan said:

That's a pretty good catch rate for a fat old commentator like Eddie Andelman.

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Eddie? I thought it was Dave...

We can be mad at their drops, but they have improved each week in this category, especially Dobson. The more comfortable they get, the more passes completed.

I just hope we see less of their drops in the Second Half.

Archeryaddict12 said:

We can be mad at there drops, but they have improved each week in this category, especially Dobson. The more comfortable they get, the more passes completed.

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What is your definition of "improved"? Dobson has the same number of drops as Thompkins on fewer targets and his 4th down drop Sunday was the most important drop of the season. Not a lot of data to make a case for a trend and the unreliability of the receivers has been a problem that might or might not improve over time. Collie had two big catches during the winning drive and I expect to see more of him Sunday. With injuries to Amendola and Edelman, and Boyce demoted to inactive, I would not be surprised to see them bring in help at the position as Pioli suggested.

Archeryaddict12 said:

We can be mad at there drops, but they have improved each week in this category, especially Dobson. The more comfortable they get, the more passes completed.

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Dobsons drop on 4th down late in the 4th could have cost us the game...I don't consider that getting better. Key situation right there

Brady_to_Moss said:

Dobsons drop on 4th down late in the 4th could have cost us the game...I don't consider that getting better. Key situation right there

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How many other passes did he drop beyond that one? And looks at how many targets he had and catches. Go back to the jets game and compare, he has improved. Both of them.