DraftMetrics.com - pretty cool

Great article on NationalFootballPost.com listing stats for NFL starters based on round drafted.

Games started by draft round | National Football Post

That was a pretty cool article. I just had time to skim it, but what jumped right out to me was this. There were more starts by UDFA's (14%) in the league, than 3rd rounders and only 2% less than 2nd rounders. I think that's a pretty astounding number, made more amazing by the fact that its been that way for the last 10 years.

Clearly UDFA's make up a significant number of starters. A number larger than all but the top 2 rounds in the draft. Obviously its a key element in roster development. Those teams that do it well, are the teams that DO well....like our Pats.

patfanken said:

That was a pretty cool article. I just had time to skim it, but what jumped right out to me was this. There were more starts by UDFA's (14%) in the league, than 3rd rounders and only 2% less than 2nd rounders. I think that's a pretty astounding number, made more amazing by the fact that its been that way for the last 10 years.

Clearly UDFA's make up a significant number of starters. A number larger than all but the top 2 rounds in the draft. Obviously its a key element in roster development. Those teams that do it well, are the teams that DO well....like our Pats.

Click to expand...

One thing to keep in mind is that there is one 2nd rounder per team, and 2-6 udfas per team.

What I found fascinating was that 2 7th rounders were more likely than a 4th to start, and almost as likely as a 3rd. Really gives interesting perspective to those trades where Mad Bill demands a late pick to finalize deals.

Interesting study on the type of schools teams like to draft from. Patriots takeaway? Don't mock anyone from a non-BCS school - there's only a 3% chance of you being right.

Draft tendencies of NFL teams | National Football Post

I found it interesting that Belichick and the Patriots were 5th for SEC (makes sense with Nick Saban at LSU & Alabama and Urban Meyer at Florida).

It also makes sense that New England is lowest on FCS/D-II schools as most of the coaches that Belichick is friends with came from FBS programs (Pat Hill, Kirk Ferentz, Nick Saban, Al Groh, Charlie Weis, etc.)

I.M. Fletcher said:

One thing to keep in mind is that there is one 2nd rounder per team, and 2-6 udfas per team.

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Yep. Since 120+ UDFA get signed after the draft each year, even at a lower success rate you'd see more break into the league than 7th rounders, of which there are 30+ per year.

I.M. Fletcher said:

What I found fascinating was that 2 7th rounders were more likely than a 4th to start, and almost as likely as a 3rd. Really gives interesting perspective to those trades where Mad Bill demands a late pick to finalize deals.

Click to expand...

That is fascinating. Here's the explanation I'd offer up. Outside of the first 3 rounds the draft is pretty much a "crapshoot" so to speak*. How much worse is a 7th rounder than a 4th rounder? I think teams just generally use the 4th rounders on boom/bust guys they want a shot at, and use the 7th rounders on reliable but limited players. A stat such as starts is more likely to favor reliable/limited players, a pool for whom there is always need, than the boom/bust mid-late picks, like the 'QB who could maybe be a WR or maybe end up flipping burgers' types.



* - While the 3rd round success rate is low I firmly believe a top GM can work the 3rd round at a distinctly higher success rate than the "weak" parts of the draft, so I would include it with the 1st and 2nd as distinctly more valuable than the rest of the draft.

Damned Skippy.

This is a major reason why I'm always advocating Trade Downs & accumulation of Draft Picks.