On the question of potential weaknesses of the Patriot Offense ...
Pressure up the middle, getting to Tom, has typically been the only way to slow the O down. There are a lot of "hot read" weapons you have to cover if you do that though- Welker, Gronk, Hernandez (hopefully), and Lloyd.
It is also hard to blitz when the Pats are in hurry-up mode, because the pace is unlike any hurry-up you have seen. You can't often use a specialty personnel package, because TB will make sure to exploit it and never let it get off the field, and communication is bound to be rushed.
Up here, on Thursdays 950 KJR-am's Mitch Levy holds a Seahawks Roundtable with local beat writers and Hugh Millen (former NFL and Husky QB). During their discussions there, they talked about the fact that Seattle may actually be the best suited of any NFL team to deal with the substitution issue. One thing that Carroll and the rest of his staff have sought to build in to this team is versatility. For example, with LB's you traditionally think of drafting guys who are either small and extremely fast ... or large and powerful (sacrificing some of that speed). The Seahawks have chosen a middle ground, going after that 235-240 pound LB who is a bit of both. They have also prided themselves in training all of their LB's to play all 3 LB positions (WLB, MLB, and SAM). Many of their defensive lineman are kind of like that as well -- guys who are a bit interchangeable in terms of their roles. Versatility is something that Carroll has highly valued. So, there may honestly not be a whole lot of substituting going on, as there are a lot of guys on this defense who are equally good at playing either the run or the pass. The only exceptions to that might be Red Bryant (who is a real run stuffer) ... and Bruce Irvin (simply more of a pass rush specialist at this point). So this defense's overall versatility might come in to play here in terms of that no huddle attack.
- Last year, the Patriots were the worst in the NFL at giving up plays of 20 yards or more. So far this year, the Patriots are the worst in the NFL at giving up plays of 20 yards or more, having already allowed 27 of them in 5 games.
- They're allowing opposition passers a QB rating of 96.3, which is the 11th worst in the NFL.
- They allow an average of 7.7 yards per pass, which is good for 10th worst in the NFL.
- They allow a completion percentage of 65.1, which is 8th worst in the NFL.
- They are tied for second worst, with 12 TDs allowed.
- They are tied for 19th in sacks
In short, the pass defense still sucks, although there seems to be some improvement when you use the eye test, and the front seven seems a lot stronger overall. If I were a Seahawks fan, I'd be pinning my hopes on a breakout passing game by young Mr. Wilson. Until the Patriots prove that they can slow down an opponent's passing attack, there's really no reason for teams to do anything else.
Hawkblogger (a very well respected Seahawks blogger, even by the local media) talked about those statistics himself over
on his site on Tuesday. He compared some of those statistics in relation to the Panthers, asking the question of whether the Seahawks offense will be able to have similar (or even better) success. Another one he shared was this ...
New England allows 44% of 3rd downs to be converted (25th in the NFL), compared to 46% for the Panthers. They allow 291.6 yards passing per game (30th in the NFL), a full 40 yards more than the Panthers.
[Shaking my own head] If the Patriots pass defense is truly THAT bad ... I would think that would be sheer blasphemy for a defensive minded coach like Bill Belichick.
Anyway, Hawkblogger also did a very nice job of diagramming a play from that Panther game that I'd completely forgotten about that really shows the continued improvement/maturity of Russell Wilson -- the Read Option. After he started talking about it, I remembered that particular play -- a heck of an effective misdirection play. In previous games, what's driven me a bit crazy is that Wilson had shown an apparent hesitancy to hit the downfield receiver (thinking the coverage was too tight for his liking), choosing instead to go with the safe check down option. On that play, Wilson sees Miller coming open on a shallow out ... but instead chooses to fire it down field to Baldwin -- a play that ended up netting 15 yards IIRC. It's a good read if anyone's interested.
The Seahawks Read Option
So we appear to be seeing Russell Wilson starting to become more confident in firing the ball down the field more. If what you say is true that Patrick Chung truly can't cover a dead mouse in a shoebox ... and the secondary as a whole is truly that inept ... that probably will embolden Wilson to take some shots down the field. This could very well be a breakout game for him -- especially since the Hawks are at home. We'll see though.
