Trent Dilfer knows key to beat Tom Brady

Patriotic Fervor · Jan 11, 2011

Metaphors said:
Really nothing new. Just a variation on the "disrupt his rhythm" and "keep him off schedule" memes. There is a fundamental problem with pulling if off though...the Pats formations and motion cause the defense to reveal and commit a lot pre-snap. At that point, Brady's first read is not dictated by the formation, but by the matchups. Problem for the defense is that even if you can guess the matchup, there may not be anything you can do about it.

Lots of examples from the last Jets game, but a more recent one from the Packer game. 1st and goal and Pats shift from a tight formation so that Hernandez is the lone receiver split left. The nickelback Shields follows him. That is the matchup Brady wants. You know it. I know it. Shields' mom knows it. Quick out route and a touchdown.

The defense is 11 independent brains trying to do a coordinated activity. Change the situation and it is a lot to expect all of them to react appropriately. In the above example, if a safety moves wide with Hernandez, then Gronk or Welker are covered by a LB in the middle of the field. Drop LBs in zone to protect this and Brady checks to a run with Woodhead behind Mankins (which was probably the original call). There literally is no good answer besides hoping for a dropped pass or an offensive penalty.

So far this year Brady has thrown 4 picks...one Hail Mary, one deep to Moss that was like a punt on 3rd-n-long, one that Moss played volleyball with and one nice play (pressure and coverage) by the Ravens. But for a guy that has really only thrown one "legit" pick all year, Brady has hit a couple of defenders square in the numbers. Why? Because those defenders gambled and almost won. The key to messing up Brady is to be random. Just stop in an unexpected place for no particular reason. Hope that Brady loses track of you and throws the interception.

Obviously that is amazingly risky, but dude hasn't thrown a pick in 3 months. And unless you can steal a possession or two, you aren't going to win. So either throw caution to the wind or get your kicker ready for some onside kicks.

That was a nice post. Thanks!

ALP · Jan 11, 2011

man, Dilfer is a genius

on another topic: i know how to get rich.....FIND lost treasure

now WHERE this lost treasure is....well not part of my analysis

Dinigee · Jan 11, 2011

goheels22002 said:
Over on the Jets Board they're analyzing this thing to death. It looks like Darrelle Revis is going to cover Tom Brady's mother with a free safety over the top to take away "his starting point."

That might leave Gronkowski open underneath.

This one cracked me up enough to post.

Thanks!

DaBruinz · Jan 11, 2011

SVN said:
Trent Dilfer knows key to beat Tom Brady - AFC East Blog - ESPN

i dont completely understand dilfer's theory.....

If you did, you'd have to explain it to Dilfer because he clearly doesn't understand it either..

Uncle Rico · Jan 11, 2011

ALP said:
man, Dilfer is a genius

on another topic: i know how to get rich.....FIND lost treasure

now WHERE this lost treasure is....well not part of my analysis

Anyone here read Jim Bouton's "Ball Four"? I forget the catcher and batter involved but he told the story once of them going over an opposing team's lineup. They got to a particularly good hitter and the catcher said ..."Koufax got him out with a curve." This seems like the same type of story. All good concepts, but the execution has to be reeaalllly good.

RyanP421 · Jan 11, 2011

Metaphors said:
Really nothing new. Just a variation on the "disrupt his rhythm" and "keep him off schedule" memes. There is a fundamental problem with pulling if off though...the Pats formations and motion cause the defense to reveal and commit a lot pre-snap. At that point, Brady's first read is not dictated by the formation, but by the matchups. Problem for the defense is that even if you can guess the matchup, there may not be anything you can do about it.

Lots of examples from the last Jets game, but a more recent one from the Packer game. 1st and goal and Pats shift from a tight formation so that Hernandez is the lone receiver split left. The nickelback Shields follows him. That is the matchup Brady wants. You know it. I know it. Shields' mom knows it. Quick out route and a touchdown.

The defense is 11 independent brains trying to do a coordinated activity. Change the situation and it is a lot to expect all of them to react appropriately. In the above example, if a safety moves wide with Hernandez, then Gronk or Welker are covered by a LB in the middle of the field. Drop LBs in zone to protect this and Brady checks to a run with Woodhead behind Mankins (which was probably the original call). There literally is no good answer besides hoping for a dropped pass or an offensive penalty.

So far this year Brady has thrown 4 picks...one Hail Mary, one deep to Moss that was like a punt on 3rd-n-long, one that Moss played volleyball with and one nice play (pressure and coverage) by the Ravens. But for a guy that has really only thrown one "legit" pick all year, Brady has hit a couple of defenders square in the numbers. Why? Because those defenders gambled and almost won. The key to messing up Brady is to be random. Just stop in an unexpected place for no particular reason. Hope that Brady loses track of you and throws the interception.

Obviously that is amazingly risky, but dude hasn't thrown a pick in 3 months. And unless you can steal a possession or two, you aren't going to win. So either throw caution to the wind or get your kicker ready for some onside kicks.

Hey, great read man. Thanks for the insight!

coolworx · Jan 11, 2011

patsfaninpittsburgh said:
Has Trent provided the "How to beat Sanchez" analysis?

That's the read I want.

Let him throw?

RobertWeathers · Jan 11, 2011

During the Jets/Colts they had a focus shot on Sanchez going through his receiver progressions. By no means am I an expert, but on a couple of instances he seemed to spend an unusual amount of time on his first look, then he went to his second.

Quite frankly, that reminded me a lot of Drew Bledsoe. He'd lock in on a receiver and once he made the determination that there was just enough of an opening, he'd groove it in there. Only if he determined it was impossible, he'd go to the next read. Rarely would he make it to the 3rd or 4th option.

Thats where Brady is a master. Manning in Brees too. Their intent to throw it to the primary receiver is always there, but if the coverage, matchup, etc. reduces the liklihood of sucess of the play, they will make their changes at the LoM or determine the best matchup. If the play evolves differently,then they will go back to the primary.

Thats the art of quarterbacking that Sanchez just isn't there with yet: Manipulating the defense. Some QB get it quickly, some QBs it takes time, some it never comes to them.

Titanium Coate Hanger · Jan 11, 2011

To win playoff football, you have to hit the QB and cause turnovers on the defensive side of the ball. The Jets do not have a strong pass rush, they just don't. Part of it is their personnel, part of it is the change in schemes and rules that tend to protect the passing game more for any NFL offense. If you can't hunt the QB any better than what you normally get, you will have to confuse Brady enough to allow your defenders enough time to hit him. We are talking seconds here. Two seconds in the NFL is a long long time. Brady is more likely to make mistakes and possibly turn the ball over if you keep smashing him in the mouth.

The Browns did a good job on the Patriots this year, give Mangini credit, he spent enough time with the Pats and Brady to know how to hurt them. The Pats can be beaten, you just need to hit the QB.

One of the Pats weaknesses is they are young defensively, but growing, but still young and the key to their success is getting a lead early and holding it. If the Jets can make Law Firm and Woodhead the deciding factor for the Pats, maybe they have a chance. Strong offensive teams that lose in the playoffs, IMHO, honestly you can trace their struggles to the lack of an effective running game. The Pats running attack is much much better than in years past, but it's not as good as it might need to be for a long playoff run.

I don't think it's a huge secret, the Jets will need to

1) Hit Brady early and often. Just keep hitting him.
2) Have no turnovers themselves
3) Keep the Pats O on the sideline with a strong rushing/grind it out clock chewing attack/Wear out the Pats D late in the game
4) Stifle the Pats in the early part of the game and keep winning the battle of adjustments

IcyPatriot · Jan 11, 2011

Great idea ... Tom is too dumb to change the starting point ...

That's why you sucked as a QB Trent ... just like you said you don't know how to be great ... and it shows.

ATippett56 · Jan 11, 2011

What does Trent Dilfer know about playing at an elite level as quarterback in the NFL?

IcyPatriot · Jan 11, 2011

ATippett56 said:
What does Trent Dilfer know about playing at an elite level as quarterback in the NFL?

He doesn't and he even has said so ... and then he throws this crap out there.

BelizePats · Jan 11, 2011

I want the 2 minutes back that it took me to read thst utterly useles piece of drivel.

ATippett56 · Jan 11, 2011

IcyPatriot said:
He doesn't and he even has said so ... and then he throws this crap out there.

Trent Dilfer had a worse career than Mark Sanchez. That disqualifies him from pretending to be a football analyst.

Trent Dilfer, QB at NFL.com

Mark Sanchez, QB for the New York Jets at NFL.com

When your career quarterback rating is lower than Mark Sanchez, you should not be allowed any media access whatsoever.

IcyPatriot · Jan 11, 2011

ATippett56 said:
Trent Dilfer had a worse career than Mark Sanchez. That disqualifies him from pretending to be a football analyst.

Trent Dilfer, QB at NFL.com

Mark Sanchez, QB for the New York Jets at NFL.com

When your career quarterback rating is lower than Mark Sanchez, you should not be allowed any media access whatsoever.

Well done .... :yeahthat:

alvinnf · Jan 11, 2011

Take away his hot read and show blitz. Show blitz but only blitz about half the time. Jam his recievers and hope one does'nt get behind you.

Hey look at me, I'm Trent Dilfer!

the taildragger · Jan 11, 2011

I caught this video and nearly spit out my food. Does he actually think there's a formula that you could memorize like first read is X on formation A, the Z on formation B, etc??? Even if true would it be possible not to give up 70 points minimum by sending multiple personnel to cover the "starting point?" And finally if it all was so simple how could he possibly account for the decade of sustained historic excellence, hall of fame career, fastest to 100 wins before or after the super bowl era, etc....wouldn't some defensive "guru" just send everyone to the "starting point?" And finally, if he honestly believes this and wasn't just trying to stir the pot, how could you not fire him? one word: dumb.

Look, all the analysts want a formula...here it is: DOMINATE THE O-LINE. I'm pretty sure TB is undefeated when the O-line is not dominated....someone who has time on their hands can check the facts but I don't remember it.

It's not about "exotic" blitzes and disguises, sorry pundits I know that's sexy but you can't hide weaknesses against this QB, he will expose you. It's not about possessing the ball, sorry Breer. This is one of the most efficient offenses in history, they don't need time. Keeping the Pats offense on the sideline is a nice moral victory. You have to dominate them up front to have a chance. We have an athletic smart line that plays fundamentally sound and cohesively as a unit, they aren't easily tricked and Tom is obviously great at protections (hello Michael Vick please use your fullback to decide where the free rusher is)....you have to manhandle them with four guys....good luck....the Giants did it in 2007. That's the formula. After the first two series, you can usually tell if we are in for a long day or not.

Getting everyone to a "starting point" ....not so much

naF staP · Jan 11, 2011

Trent Dilfer??? You mean one of the top 2 worst QB's to win a Super Bowl Trent Dilfer? The guy who the coaches had in there to hand off so he wouldn't blow the game Trent Dilfer?? Um, not interested in what he has to say.

furley · Jan 12, 2011

To me, this doesn't make a lot of sense. First, Brady throws to the open player whether that be a wide receiver, a running back or a tight end. For the most part, for Brady, there isn't a number one option. Again, it's whoever is open. It was Moss' addition that had changed that logic.

Wait. Isn't the way in which Brady plays methodical? So, what is Dilfer talking about?

"What I mean by that is on each play Tom Brady has a starting point with his eyes. Know where that starting point is, and clutter that area. Make him go to No. 2 and No. 3. Slow him down, make it more methodical and give your pass rush some type of chance to get home.

VJCPatriot · Jan 12, 2011

The problem with Dilfer's 'strategy' is that Brady is one of the fastest in the game today at going through his progressions. Brady's field vision and pocket presence set him apart. Add on top of that he has an extremely accurate arm and the ability to throw the ball to where the defense CANT get at it and you have the guy who broke the passes attempted without an INT record.

The only way to make Brady have a hard time is to consistently get pressure on him. Hit him, knock him to the ground, bat down his passes, etc. Trying to pressure Brady with blitzes is generally risky because he's also one of the best QBs at calling protections and getting the pass off quickly to beat the blitz. Do it with your down linemen and you're golden. But not a lot of teams out there have a DL that can manhandle the Pats OL.

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