Seymour got a signing bonus of $5.34M when he redid his deal. A portion of that would probably be recoverable (one quarter or one third).
The $18M+ option bonus is not. An arbitrator ruled in the Ashley Lelie case that only signing bonus is subject to proportional recovery for failure to perform. Option or roster bonuses are deemed earned when received even if they are pro rated (including roster bonuses converted to signing bonus) for cap purposes. Signing bonus is considered like a down payment on the entirety of the deal. That's why fewer players are accepting them lately and more are inclined to go for the guaranteed language.
Not exactly. The arbitrator ruled that all bonuses must be considered to be EITHER signing bonuses OR performance bonuses, and that only the former are recoverable.
The rules for determining whether or not a Roster or Option bonus should be treated as a signing bonus or a performance bonus (for the purpose of recoverability) are in flux.
In the Lelie case, the Broncos never claimed that the option bonus was a signing bonus, so the arbitrator never had to rule on this.
In the Vick case, the owners did make this claim. The arbitrator, based on a very narrow reading of Vick's contract, sided with the owners. It is likely that if the arbitrator's ruling is upheld, each contract will have to be carefully parsed to determine which type of bonus a payment is.
The arbitrator's ruling in the Vick case was reversed, and appealed to the eighth circuit where I believe it is still pending. Vick has since entered into a settlement concerning all but a token $1M of the disputed amount. The terms of this settlement imply a roughly 20% chance of the arbitrator's ruling being upheld, but this figure was most likely determined by the structure of Vick's bankruptcy and may bear little resemblance to the actual probability of either side prevailing. (It could be higher or lower).
So, is Seymour's bonus safe from recovery? Probably, but he shouldn't bank on it. If the Seymour situation gets ugly (and it really isn't yet), and the Vick arbitrator's ruling is upheld, I'd bet that management will pursue substantially more than just the prorated portion of Seymour's signing bonus.