Colts Cap Mismanagement in Focus

[solman]

Long story short: Our depth takes a hit (a la Indy,) our D takes a (comparative) hit, our O Line takes a (comparative) hit, or we push costs into the future, if our WR corps is going to be star-studded.

I suspect that the 2007 Patriots may be the greatest team in the history of the NFL. It may not even be close.

In this salary cap era we will NOT be able to retain that level of talent in 2008.

By back loading contracts, we can keep most of the gang together through 2008 and 2009. But there won't be much room on our team to develop new (underpaid) talent.

Absent some great fortune (on the level of obtaining Randy Moss for a 4th round pick) we are going to either have to rebuild in 2010, or let more people go in 2008 than I would like.

I say 2010 because of the magnitude of that year's free agent crop and the apparent improbability of retaining many of them.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

I think a lot of people are thinking in their heart of hearts things like "maybe Randy Moss just likes winning so much he'll play for 3M/annum for the rest of his career."

Somehow we've got to bridge a gap that already includes rebuilding, just due to age, within that same 2009-2010 timeframe. Can we keep those name/skill players on offense we all know and love? Sure. But what else? The O-line is young too. We can keep Brady throwing to Moss and Welker, maybe even Stallworth, behind a familiar O-line. But...

In 2010:
Bruschi will be 37 (probably gone)
Rodney Harrison will be 38 (probably gone)
Junior Seau will be 41 (probably just hitting his peak - JUST KIDDING... probably gone)
Mike Vrable will be 35 (and getting long in the tooth after his 20th TD pass)

I'm going by year of birth to keep it simple... but using this convention, Tedy is 34 this year. Just to get you an idea of the difference we may see in Vrabel by then.

Continuing the practice of cycling in veteran linebackers, again, will take money, money currently envisioned as the province of the WRs. Just for an example.

I don't mind the idea that this gang has a window of a couple more years after this run, which is fantastic this time through. I also don't envision a 49ers style fire sale when you say the word "rebuilding." I could see us winning the East handily while "rebuilding." But I do see another year a bit like 2005-2006 during that time, just in another area. In 05-06 the problem was primarily the absence of a WR corps decimated by free agency. In 2010, as we so often now say of the on-field offense, it will be a case of pick your poison. But it will be in the sense of picking which piece to miss.

Well, there is nothing to say, other than we're currently very, very spoiled. It feels vaguely horrible to admit that we'll one day not be the "complete team" we talk about so often now.

PFnV

 

[Truck]

In this salary cap era we will NOT be able to retain that level of talent in 2008.

True, although we may see 2-3 more players like Moss & Stallworth who decide to give the Pats a significant discount to play for NE next year. So we lose a couple of expensive ppl (like Samuel), and they get replaced by bargain super-bowl seeking players. I would definitely expect to see more good part-time veterans like Seau join the team on the cheap (esp if they havent ever been in a superbowl).

 

[PatsSteve1]

To be fair here, last year the Patriots roster wasn't as strong as it needed to be either. Weak WR's and not much for backup LB's or S's. Sometimes you hit and sometimes you miss a little with FA's and DP's. Both the Colts and Patriots have had thier hits and misses and also both have paid out large contracts for some players.
The impending doom of the Colts with thier salary cap management has been predicted here for a few years. Having 1 year where maybe the roster isn't strong ennough top to bottom has hit both these teams, but over the last 6-7 they have both been strong teams.

 

[solman]

True, although we may see 2-3 more players like Moss & Stallworth who decide to give the Pats a significant discount to play for NE next year. So we lose a couple of expensive ppl (like Samuel), and they get replaced by bargain super-bowl seeking players. I would definitely expect to see more good part-time veterans like Seau join the team on the cheap (esp if they havent ever been in a superbowl).

I think we'll retain Moss, and either retain or effectively replace some of the lesser free agents (Gafney, Wilson, Gay, Izzo).

I figure we'll lose Bruschi/Seau to retirement.

We'll lose Asante, Stallworth and Washington to FA and cap considerations.

We may see some cap friendly restructuring from Faulk and Harrison.

We may see some cap friendly extending from Colvin.

We may see some cap unfriendly extensions from other players due to become free agents in future years (like Ty Warren's deal).

We'll use our new draft picks and our recent draftees (CJ, Meriweather) to help fill the holes, and that will be it. Our remaining cap room will be just enough to handle emergencies (although we have room to restructure contracts in the event of an emergency) and provide us with a little flexibility.

If a useful free agent offers his services to us at a huge discount, that would be nice, but I don't think you can plan on such things (nor do I expect this to happen again).

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Even if they don't win another game this year, I say it wasn't a dumb move. Not every team can do what the Pats do. Convince players to take a pay cut for a shot at a ring, or be outstanding in the draft.

Sounds like you got two choices:

Option A: Top Heavy Got a 25% chance of a SB, 25% chance of a losing season, 50% chance at the middle

or

Option B: depth: assured winning season but almost no shot of winning the first playoff game.

I go with option A.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

True, although we may see 2-3 more players like Moss & Stallworth who decide to give the Pats a significant discount to play for NE next year. So we lose a couple of expensive ppl (like Samuel), and they get replaced by bargain super-bowl seeking players. I would definitely expect to see more good part-time veterans like Seau join the team on the cheap (esp if they havent ever been in a superbowl).

Depending on how things go that might be more difficult. Some players might be reluctant to soil a good image by choosing to join the "evil" team. Sure there are other for whom joining "the bad boys of the NFL" would be a plus. But do we really want the TOs, & Ricky Williams of the league on a team that plays as a team.

 

[RayClay]

EDIT: Stratos, enough already. This is a football board, not a playground.


By Larry Weisman, USA TODAY
New England Patriots defensive lineman Richard Seymour earned the most money during the 2006 season of any NFL player, but his reign at the top will be short.
Seymour, who signed a contract extension that included about $24 million in bonuses, socked away nearly $24.7 million for the past year's work, according to USA TODAY's annual survey of player compensation. But for 2007 he has a base salary of $600,000 and will drop down the list after his moonshot payday.

Same goes for Peyton Manning. The Indianapolis Colts quarterback signed a contract worth nearly $100 million in 2004 and it included a record $34.5 million signing bonus. But as the years go by and other players come to the head of the line for deals, he recedes a bit on the gross-dollars list. Manning's $10M take ranked him 31st, though his average per year value is $14 million.

Is their any point to this post? You know that contracts, bonuses are paid in different years and comparisons of any one year of individual contracts is meaningless.

The stat you are looking for is how many players are paid one million (or other decent, not bottom of the barrel, figure) or more. That's your depth.

 

[RayClay]

The Colts were indeed heading for CAP Hell, but Polian addressed the problem this past off season. He did relieve the coming CAP hell, as Miquel will attest.

To do it, he took a long-odds, calculated gamble and is predictably losing that bet. What he did was to let 8 to 10 of his veteran starters (and their high salaries), depart in Free Agency and replace them with their backups, who were trained, and in some cases pushing for playing time, like his CBs.

When he did this though, it meant that the new starters backups would have to be raw rookies or UDFA free agents. He gambled that his starters would not get injured; he gambled that his low round draft picks would be extraordinarily successful. He gambled that he could get away with this lack of depth for a couple of drafts, until he could rebuild his team's depth.

Polian thought he would get away with it, because the team had not suffered from injuries the past few seasons, and he reasoned that the finesse, speed, game they played, led to fewer injuries than playing power football.

In the end, he gambled because he essentially had no choice. If he did nothing, then the Colts would descend into the CAP Hell that forced the Titans and 49ers to dismantle their Teams. he would have to start doing that in 2008 and 2009. Now he doesn't anymore, at least for a few more years.

But a couple of things intervened. A very good player Tarik Glenn retired. Marvin Harrison started to act like a brittle 35 year old that he is. Both have big DEAD CAP money due, and they will be payed whether they play or not. And Peyton is 33 and he is already entering the declining years of QBs. He has only five more years at best as a top QB.

I can't verify it, but it seems like a very good post. I'm very impressed by the fast cheap defense, but they would have liked a couple low injury years for the backups to mature I guess.

 

[RayClay]

Don't forget, the Pats have left themselves vulnerable by their inability to replenish the linebacker position since 2000. I hope they can make that turnaround gracefully.

 

[Miguel]

Do you not agree that Polian responsibly addressed and solved his CAP problems by letting many starters go in Free Agency this past off season?
Don't you agree that this was a prudent and foresighted CAP management, but that it constituted a gamble on the replacements stepping up and playing well?

I do not accept the premise that the Colts had cap problems. They entered free agency 5 million under the cap. They could have been under the cap by $20 million. In the salary cap era teams had to turn over their roster. Each year there are about 8 to 12 new players on each and every team. If a team kept every player, how do they make room for their draft class.

Whether Glenn has a high dead money or not, it is there and he is not;

Substitute Dillon for Glenn.

Even if Harrison returns, he may be a shell of his former self. Troy like Marvin is not what he was, and both are now coming off injuries to their wheels. But Troy's compensation reflects that fact, and Harrison's does not, as yet.

IMO, Marvin Harrison was worth $4 million in new money this year.

 

[Miguel]

I'm just saying that they lack the cap flexibility to keep up with their rapidly improving (and cap rich) divisional rivals.

How much room do they need to have to construct a Super Bowl contending team in 2008?? I think that they have enough without pushing out a ton of money into the future

[*]There are dozens of articles that characterize Clark as being in a contract year, but I can't find confirmation of this in any of the usual sources. Is he heading into a voidable year?

I believe that Clark can void his contract after this year but I could be wrong.

 

[Miguel]

I suspect that the 2007 Patriots may be the greatest team in the history of the NFL. It may not even be close.

In this salary cap era we will NOT be able to retain that level of talent in 2008.

By back loading contracts, we can keep most of the gang together through 2008 and 2009. But there won't be much room on our team to develop new (underpaid) talent.

Absent some great fortune (on the level of obtaining Randy Moss for a 4th round pick) we are going to either have to rebuild in 2010, or let more people go in 2008 than I would like.

I say 2010 because of the magnitude of that year's free agent crop and the apparent improbability of retaining many of them.

To amplify what Solman is saying these are the people currently scheduled to become UFAs in March, 2010.

Eric Alexander, LB
Willie Andrews, CB
Kevin Faulk, RB
Stephen Gostkowski, K
Jarvis Green, DE
Ellis Hobbs, CB
Nick Kaczur, G
Chad Jackson, WR
Matt Light, OT
Logan Mankins, G
Stephen Neal, G
Richard Seymour, DE
David Thomas, TE
Mike Vrabel, LB
Ben Watson, TE
Vince Wilfork, DT
Billy Yates, G

with Brady and Maroney due to be UFAs in March, 2011.

For the record, I like to enjoy the current season.

 

[He Ban Me]

There is a 50-50 chance Harrison will return to the Jags game.

There is a 50-50 chance Harrison will return in week 8.

There is a 50-50 chance Harrison will return in week 9.

There is a 50-50 chance Harrison will return in week 10.

There is a 50-50 chance Harrison will return in week 11.​

I didn't realize you were the one asking the question. Could you do that for Bob Sanders for last year? I think he missed 9-10 games in a row. That would look cool.