Offseason talk - would you trade Chandler Jones?

[Ivan]

So, you think it's reasonable to have about 20 million dollars of cap hits tied up in Jones, Sheard, and Ninkovich as our DEs, AND you want to "find another Sheard" at a 7 million dollar cap hit in free agency as well?

Free agency is a nice tool to add some missing pieces at reasonable cost every year, but it is the draft which has proven to be our bread and butter in the era of the salary cap.

Why do you think we sit back and watch key pieces such as Seymour, Wilfork, Woodhead, Vereen, Revis, and Welker leave? Because Belichick is looking at the next player on a cheaper, rookie contract that gives us more value. That's how he stays ahead.

Disagree completely. You take different measures at different times and now isn't the time to sell off pieces of their defense it's time to finish building it and reap the rewards from that. They will save money by getting new deals with Hightower and Jones, and the same goes for extending Sheard. The common denominator on all the players you listed was that they wanted more than Belichick had decided they were worth and to this point there is zero evidence that is the case with Jones any more than it is with Hightower or Collins. The cap is going up substantially, the Patriots have plenty of ways to clear space if they want, and they can get Hicks, Jones, and Sheard done and have an excellent young defensive line for the next three seasons and that would be a great position to be in.

 

[supafly]

Disagree completely. You take different measures at different times and now isn't the time to sell off pieces of their defense it's time to finish building it and reap the rewards from that. They will save money by getting new deals with Hightower and Jones, and the same goes for extending Sheard. The common denominator on all the players you listed was that they wanted more than Belichick had decided they were worth and to this point there is zero evidence that is the case with Jones any more than it is with Hightower or Collins. The cap is going up substantially, the Patriots have plenty of ways to clear space if they want, and they can get Hicks, Jones, and Sheard done and have an excellent young defensive line for the next three seasons and that would be a great position to be in.

I really don't think we're that far off with the general thoughts here, but I respectfully disagree that we'll be able to keep all of those players, especially now that Butler is in the mix as well for 2017.

It's no coincidence that Belichick was able to find cheaper, younger talent in MOST of the examples that I gave--sans Richard Seymour, who may have been moved a year or two too early, but also was an offer that couldn't be refused. That said, we heard posters make the same argument that "we could keep them both if we really wanted to," (Wilfork/Seymour) and that was always very unlikely to happen. You know this team. That just isn't the way that Belichick works. He has replaced almost all of those players on cheaper draft picks without missing much of a beat.

In my opinion, the writing is on the wall for the future of Chandler Jones due to taking 2 higher round DEs in last year's draft (and passing on Jeremy Langford...damn) while also bringing in Sheard as our biggest FA signing. With big pieces of our defense coming up for new deals, we're unlikely to keep them all, and Jones is not only going to be the most expensive, may also be the most expendable. Now...I have no idea as to whether or not Belichick would explore the possibility of trading him this offseason or not, as that's up for debate, but I can understand why people will bring it up.

It's probably more likely that we just ride him out the last year and then receive a comp pick if/when he leaves, but it's something that we'll be discussing at length over the next handful of months.

 

[patsbrasilpatriotas]

I'm sorry. I'm not fully understanding the question.

Is that a hypothetical trade scenario which would get rid of ALL three big defensive players? If so, why would anyone want to do that?

If you're just offering an example as to what each player could get in a trade, I still think that you're overestimating trade compensation. No one is giving up 2 second rounders and a third. They would be better off just giving up a first.

Dear friend. I dont want to trade Jones. I like him. But we cant keep all of then. Its impossible to have depth and keep all studs together... So, IMO Jones is the worst of the 4 ( Collins, HT, Buttler). You have to give something to get something. So IMO if the price is right Jones value this year is far superior than next year. Ok i know that will get at least a late 3rd for him, but if we can get a player in the first round this year I am confident that he can play right away. See Malcom Brown...

If we trade him there is ZERO impact in the cap, we can get 2 picks (IMO) at least a first and 4th( we already debate that) and we can extend the other 3 players... So it is not about want, it is about need and choice: keep him in 2016 and get a 3rd next year or trade him right now and get more this year? IMO they should trade him.


When you said that only two players of each team are worth a 1st round pick I just asked based on your answers if you would trade HT and Collins for 2nd round picks + something .... If you say that they are worth a 2nd and some GM offer more its a no-brainer right? If your house is worth X, and i give you x+1 you sell right?

Why Patriots trade down in the draft? Because the value of the trade is right. Right now IMO Collins and HT are worth A LOT MORE than a 1st. You disagree. You said that they are worth one 2nd round each. So if the value is one 2nd round and i asked you if you would trade for 2 second round picks + a 3rd for both of then, I think you answer is yes, correct?

 

[supafly]

Dear friend. I dont want to trade Jones. I like him. But we cant keep all of then. Its impossible to have depth and keep all studs together... So, IMO Jones is the worst of the 4 ( Collins, HT, Buttler). You have to give something to get something. So IMO if the price is right Jones value this year is far superior than next year. Ok i know that will get at least a late 3rd for him, but if we can get a player in the first round this year I am confident that he can play right away. See Malcom Brown...

If we trade him there is ZERO impact in the cap, we can get 2 picks (IMO) at least a first and 4th( we already debate that) and we can extend the other 3 players... So it is not about want, it is about need and choice: keep him in 2016 and get a 3rd next year or trade him right now and get more this year? IMO they should trade him.


When you said that only two players of each team are worth a 1st round pick I just asked based on your answers if you would trade HT and Collins for 2nd round picks + something .... If you say that they are worth a 2nd and some GM offer more its a no-brainer right? If your house is worth X, and i give you x+1 you sell right?

Why Patriots trade down in the draft? Because the value of the trade is right. Right now IMO Collins and HT are worth A LOT MORE than a 1st. You disagree. You said that they are worth one 2nd round each. So if the value is one 2nd round and i asked you if you would trade for 2 second round picks + a 3rd for both of then, I think you answer is yes, correct?

I'm not trying to claim that neither Collins nor Hightower are worth anything more than a second round pick, because I think it could be a second PLUS another selection or player. I'm just not sure that they are both worth firsts, that's all.

I agree with you that 1) Jones may be considered for trade, and is not only going to be the most expensive to resign, but also the most expendable of the 4 players. It's quite possible that Belichick will consider it. The move would instantly save us almost 8 million dollars in cap room, so it certainly affects the cap dramatically. 2) Many are automatically assuming a 3rd rounder as a comp pick, but Jones could have a poor season, become injured again, or have repercussions from his incident with drugs last week. Any of those could reduce the value of a future contract, which could end up as a much shorter term deal than we expect. He could sign a 2 year deal, for instance.

 

[RayClay]

Junior GMs. You can keep the players you want if you plan. You don't think the Patriots plan?

Also, a draft pick is nothing. a draft pick has never played in the NFL and has never proven to be better than a different draft pick ans certainly is not comparable to a proven NFL player who has succeeded on a high level.

Also, you are going to have to somehow find a 6'5" elastic man armed pass rusher and overall disruptive player.

How much is that going to cost and how long will it take? You think Vernon Gholston is available?

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Collins and DH a must..jones isn;t a MUST in my eyes..but he's still important.

 

[AzorianPats]

Collins and Hightower are the priorities. They are the heart beat of the defense.

 

[50-yard-line]

BB's defensive philosophy has always been "set the edge." Jones does it, gives them a pass rush, and made several big plays taht turned games in each of his years.

Yeah, let's dump him. I mean, Flowers and Grissom are certainly going to be as good, right?

RIGHT??????

The Patriots will approach all their players with "this iis the value" attitude. Those who want more will be gone. The guys I think most likely to leave in a couple of years are Collins and Butler. Butler because #1 corners make huge money, and Collins because he is the one most likely to see a Suh-type dealif he keeps developing.

I don't want either to leave, of course, but those are the two I see as most likely to price themselves out of a BB team.

 

[patsbrasilpatriotas]

BB's defensive philosophy has always been "set the edge." Jones does it, gives them a pass rush, and made several big plays taht turned games in each of his years.

Yeah, let's dump him. I mean, Flowers and Grissom are certainly going to be as good, right?

RIGHT??????

The Patriots will approach all their players with "this iis the value" attitude. Those who want more will be gone. The guys I think most likely to leave in a couple of years are Collins and Butler. Butler because #1 corners make huge money, and Collins because he is the one most likely to see a Suh-type dealif he keeps developing.

I don't want either to leave, of course, but those are the two I see as most likely to price themselves out of a BB team.

Suh-type of deal?? Jesus, you mean 5x KJ Wright? 2x LUKE KUECHLY? LOL

 

[Big Bucks]

So, you think it's reasonable to have about 20 million dollars of cap hits tied up in Jones, Sheard, and Ninkovich as our DEs, AND you want to "find another Sheard" at a 7 million dollar cap hit in free agency as well?

Free agency is a nice tool to add some missing pieces at reasonable cost every year, but it is the draft which has proven to be our bread and butter in the era of the salary cap.

Why do you think we sit back and watch key pieces such as Seymour, Wilfork, Woodhead, Vereen, Revis, and Welker leave? Because Belichick is looking at the next player on a cheaper, rookie contract that gives us more value. That's how he stays ahead.

No. I think as a replacement for Chandler Jones. My first preference though is not to change the three and hope to use a hybrid DT or LB that can fill the 4th position. But if we were to receive something for Jones then I prefer our chances of replacing his production through free agency or a trade ourselves than gambling in the draft although as you state, its been of comfort of late that we have hit recently.

 

[Ivan]

I really don't think we're that far off with the general thoughts here, but I respectfully disagree that we'll be able to keep all of those players, especially now that Butler is in the mix as well for 2017.

It's no coincidence that Belichick was able to find cheaper, younger talent in MOST of the examples that I gave--sans Richard Seymour, who may have been moved a year or two too early, but also was an offer that couldn't be refused. That said, we heard posters make the same argument that "we could keep them both if we really wanted to," (Wilfork/Seymour) and that was always very unlikely to happen. You know this team. That just isn't the way that Belichick works. He has replaced almost all of those players on cheaper draft picks without missing much of a beat.

In my opinion, the writing is on the wall for the future of Chandler Jones due to taking 2 higher round DEs in last year's draft (and passing on Jeremy Langford...damn) while also bringing in Sheard as our biggest FA signing. With big pieces of our defense coming up for new deals, we're unlikely to keep them all, and Jones is not only going to be the most expensive, may also be the most expendable. Now...I have no idea as to whether or not Belichick would explore the possibility of trading him this offseason or not, as that's up for debate, but I can understand why people will bring it up.

It's probably more likely that we just ride him out the last year and then receive a comp pick if/when he leaves, but it's something that we'll be discussing at length over the next handful of months.

They have been bringing in DE prospects all along, e.g..Buchanon abyss Moore, and they are always continuing to, build every, unit as much as possible. So far the "writing on the wall" has been fan speculation and I don't know why anyone would put stock in that. And Wilfork and Seymour were on their 3rd and 4th contracts, not their 2nd, they aren't analogous.

As far playing it out goes that would be a far better approach imo. I believe there's a good chance Jones will re-sign in New England but even if he didn't they would get a 3rd rounder for him and it would be tradeable, and imo playing next year in another run for a super bowl and taking the 3rd makes far more sense than trading him for a 2nd and having to fill the void created by losing him, and the argument they could simply plug in Sheard does nothing as then you have to fill the void created by replacing Jones with Sheard. Better to have both of them and keep them long term.

As far as Butler goes they can do Jones and Hightower this year and Collins and Butler the next, and still have tags available for both years.

They should do all they can to keep this defense intact as long as possible, I see no gain in trading away important pieces for trade prospects that may not even pan out. Those deals make more sense when you don't want a player or they want out, neither are the case with Jones.

This place is ADDH when it comes to trading established players for draft picks, it never stops and rarely happens or makes sense.

 

[Froob]

So ridiculous to lust after cutting good players when it's so hard to obtain and develop them.

Just bizarre and ridiculous.

Well they did trade Seymour after one of his best years.

 

[Ivan]

Collins and Hightower are the priorities. They are the heart beat of the defense.

They can keep Collins until 2019 simply by tagging him once, the "urgency" to get his deal done isn't about reality it's about making an argument to ship Jones out of town.

 

[AzorianPats]

They can keep Collins until 2019 simply by tagging him once, the "urgency" to get his deal done isn't about reality it's about making an argument to ship Jones out of town.

The urgency to get Collins done is to lock up our best players.

There was no urgency to sign Gronk to an extension back on 2012 but we did. And id argue Collins is the Gronk of the defense.

Its unrealistic to think we can lock up all 4 of Collins, Jones, Hightower and Butler, and to me, Jones is the most expandable.

 

[Ivan]

The urgency to get Collins done is to lock up our best players.

There was no urgency to sign Gronk to an extension back on 2012 but we did. And id argue Collins is the Gronk of the defense.

Its unrealistic to think we can lock up all 4 of Collins, Jones, Hightower and Butler, and to me, Jones is the most expandable.

If Collins wants to sign a deal that team friendly they should sign him right now as well but that in no way would preclude them from getting deals done with three others, in fact itt would help that goal.

Once again, they have 3 years to get 4 deals done with the cap going up, rapidly, asked they have tags to use when needed, there is no reason at all they can't get these done.

 

[50-yard-line]

Suh-type of deal?? Jesus, you mean 5x KJ Wright? 2x LUKE KUECHLY? LOL

Meaning top of the market. Collins, with a great year next year will be in elite territory and ready to cash in, if he's so disposed. Collingsworth pretty much said that the only defensive player other than Watt whom D coordinators plan around is Jamie Collins, and he said that in quoting some coaches.

 

[Ivan]

Meaning top of the market. Collins, with a great year next year will be in elite territory and ready to cash in, if he's so disposed. Collingsworth pretty much said that the only defensive player other than Watt whom D coordinators plan around is Jamie Collins, and he said that in quoting some coaches.

Keuchly is the best LB in football and he is getting 60 million, Suh is getting over 100 million. There is a big difference. Collins market value right now would be around 40 million for 5 years, maybe a little more. If he has a big year next season then her might be able to get it up around 50 for 5.

 

[patsbrasilpatriotas]

Meaning top of the market. Collins, with a great year next year will be in elite territory and ready to cash in, if he's so disposed. Collingsworth pretty much said that the only defensive player other than Watt whom D coordinators plan around is Jamie Collins, and he said that in quoting some coaches.

He is getting 8 -9 same as HT and buttler if they extend him early 7-8. Jones is the worst player and will get a lot more...

 

[Ivan]

He is getting 8 -9 same as HT and buttler if they extend him early 7-8. Jones is the worst player and will get a lot more...

Says who?


Teams aren't going to be giving Jones 80 million if he is as bad as his detractors here claim he is. You guys are making two arguments on the same issue that completely contradict each other, on the one hand you claim he's really not that good and the other that he's going to break the bank. And although DEs with good sack numbers tend to get big deals they don't go into the 80-90 million range people here think it will go unless it is a truly great player, such as Watt and Suh have been, although Suh dropped off this season after getting the big money. Right now Jones is another player in the 40-50 million range and the Patriots can get that deal done if they want to.

 

[varjao]

Look not trying to diminish Jones play but double digit sacks and other numbers may be a bit misleading, he gets some stats in garbage time or easy games, I remember very few impact plays he made in important moments. As some have said, he disappears from games quite often. He is not a guy that you know is going to get to the QB and create some mess like Von Miller. BUT, I don't care about the stats, I care about his play and since we don't know the playbook and his assignments it's difficult to judge, BB may be very happy with him.

I agree with some that say trading him may create a hole and a problem that do not exist today but I think Flowers was drafted to replace him and with all the other players I don't see a huge drop off, but again, as I said, we don't know the assignments. The eye test tells me we could get his production replaced by other players. That said, I would consider a trade, but not for a draft pick (I think we could get a 2nd round tops) instead I would consider a trade for a above average veteran player, maybe a guard and a 5th round pick or something, maybe a package deal. The learning curve for rookies in New England is big so trading Jones for a pick not only is an uncertainty but it would pay off in the future and weaken the team right now when we have a good thing going.

There is the money thing, he will definitely be in for a nice pay check when he hits the FA, a contract that we are not going to match and he's due to 8 Mi in 2016 and that's a considerable amount of money. With another cuts we could be in good position to bring some experienced players in the Free Agency, I'm not saying a 15Mi a year player but who knows maybe 2 players in the 7Mi range would be nice. Also the depth this past season was not like the depth we had in Casillas and Ayers so I wouldn't mind have some guys a little bit better in the bench.

This will be the subject of the off-season IMO as there are several possibilities. Some people were talking about this trade last off-season but it's going to regain total force this year, especially after this drug incident he got involved, that was really bad and could drop his market value, I'm sure BB was not happy with that event in a AFCCG week.