Question 2: Is Pittsburgh’s defense really that bad?
Yup.
Moving on…
Question 3: Why exactly is it so bad when they’ve invested so many high round picks over the past 3 years in the defense?
It’s a combination of inexperience, a new defensive scheme, a tendency towards overly aggressive/undisciplined play, and suspect talent at the key positions.
Pittsburgh doesn’t exactly lack for talent per se on defense. Cameron Heyward is a stud 3-4 DE, and Stephon Tuitt looks like he’ll be a monster bookend for years to come (although Tuitt is dinged and may not play). There is talent and depth at ILB (Timmons, Shazier), and we’ve invested heavily all across the linebacking core with 1st round picks. I actually don’t think the CB situation is as bad as advertised – they may have a bunch of average corners at best IMO, but CB isn’t their biggest issue.
The biggest issue with the defense IMO is recognition and football IQ – players routinely break down in their assignments, either due to poor recognition, poor understanding of the defense, or pure over-aggressiveness. Shamarko Thomas – the heir apparent to Troy P, who the Steelers traded up to grab a couple of years ago – is the most egregious offender here. He has been caught out of position on at least two TD passes this preseason, and I’m starting to doubt whether he has the between-the-ears component required to play safety in the NFL. Jarvis Jones is another – several times a game he crashes inside and vacates containment. Shazier is a whirlwind, but lacks ballast and can be blown out of plays if OLinemen reach the 2nd level. Put these things together, and there are frequent, major gaps each game that an offense can easily exploit.
[EDIT: As of Sunday, Shamarko Thomas is benched and Will Allen is Thursday’s starting strong safety. Allen is a savvy veteran...with none of Thomas’ speed or athleticism.]
Pitt also has a new D Coordinator (Keith Butler), and they seem intent on playing a new scheme that involves more push upfield from the DL on pass rushing downs, and more Cover 2 on the back end. The problem is that Thomas and the free safety, Mike Mitchell, have only played a handful of downs together this preseason, and in any event seem miles away from having the savvy and communication level needed to successfully execute the Cover 2. This issue extends to the ILBs, who have to quickly determine if they have to sprint back to get adequate depth in a cover 2…I’ve noticed several occasions this preseason where the ILBs have sprinted back only to get gashed by a delayed handoff or draw. I’m concerned that Pitt simply lacks the veteran smarts required to run the Cover 2 at this time.
Finally, I fear that Pittsburgh may simply not be very good at safety or OLB. James Harrison had a great camp and seems to have found the fountain of youth, but it’s not a good sign that he is clearly still Pittsburgh’s best pass rusher…how long until he breaks down? Jarvis Jones flashes but is undisciplined; Arthur Moats is mostly a journeyman on the other side, and Bud Dupree is a year away (at least). And aside from a single nice season in Carolina, Mitchell is almost as much an unproven commodity at safety as Thomas.
One last note re/ the defense: it’s worth monitoring the conditions of starters Lawrence Timmons, Stephon Tuitt, and Mike Mitchell in the days leading up to the game. All three were dinged to varying degrees over the last couple of weeks of the preseason. It would not be surprising to me if any of these guys were to miss the game, or at least be significantly limited within it; Timmons is really the guy to watch here as he makes all of the defensive calls. Pitt also added a 7th DLineman Sunday--a possible indicator that Tuitt will not be able to go.
Bottom line: it will not take much in the way of scheme or talent for New England to exploit the Pittsburgh defense. I know NE’s offense has struggled somewhat in the preseason, and I know there have been some concerns on this board about NE’s talent and depth at wideout and RB…but frankly it just won’t take much to confuse our defense badly (and repeatedly). Against less cerebral quarterbacks and coaches, we might be okay…I really doubt this will be the case against Brady and BB.
