hwc
In the Starting Line-Up
- Joined
- Sep 13, 2004
- Messages
- 2,906
- Reaction score
- 1,363
Ok, Ok, I hate him, too. So save the posts about what a despicable POS he is. I get it. But, he is also one of the most knowledgeable successful GM in the history of the league so when he does a segment on the draft on his Sirius XM NFL radio show I listen.
And, please, don't merge this into the draft forum. I have a personal policy of not looking there before the draft for the reasons outline by Polian below:
According to Polian:
1) Forget all the mock drafts and TV experts. He said that after doing it for 25 years, he could NEVER predict who would be available at his draft position. He said the best he could ever do was a list of 4 or 5 players that would be available and a couple of them probably would be. You never trade down to get a specific player because he won't be there. And any draft expert that pretends to know otherwise is just blowing hot (h)air. He says the media experts can figure out pretty much the players viewed as having first round grades and that's it. Predictions of players in specific rounds and specific teams after that is useless. They have no idea.
2) Averaged over the last drafts, according to Polian's data, there has been an average of 19 players with a first round grade each year. This means that playoff teams are usually out of the running for players with first round grades, except when maybe one of them falls down to 25 or so. But, only one. And nobody drafting after 25 gets a first round grade. This is why, Polian continued, the Patriots trade back into the second round frequently. They are getting a player with the same grade they could get at the end of the first round, they are paying less money, and they are stockpiling extra picks.
Of course we all knew this (it's why I don't go into the draft forum), but it was interesting hearing a top GM say the draft prognosticators have no clue. He said that draft day for a GM is all about being quick and nimble to deal with the totally unexpected surprises coming at you. GMs don't go into the draft with any idea which players they will end up getting.
And, please, don't merge this into the draft forum. I have a personal policy of not looking there before the draft for the reasons outline by Polian below:
According to Polian:
1) Forget all the mock drafts and TV experts. He said that after doing it for 25 years, he could NEVER predict who would be available at his draft position. He said the best he could ever do was a list of 4 or 5 players that would be available and a couple of them probably would be. You never trade down to get a specific player because he won't be there. And any draft expert that pretends to know otherwise is just blowing hot (h)air. He says the media experts can figure out pretty much the players viewed as having first round grades and that's it. Predictions of players in specific rounds and specific teams after that is useless. They have no idea.
2) Averaged over the last drafts, according to Polian's data, there has been an average of 19 players with a first round grade each year. This means that playoff teams are usually out of the running for players with first round grades, except when maybe one of them falls down to 25 or so. But, only one. And nobody drafting after 25 gets a first round grade. This is why, Polian continued, the Patriots trade back into the second round frequently. They are getting a player with the same grade they could get at the end of the first round, they are paying less money, and they are stockpiling extra picks.
Of course we all knew this (it's why I don't go into the draft forum), but it was interesting hearing a top GM say the draft prognosticators have no clue. He said that draft day for a GM is all about being quick and nimble to deal with the totally unexpected surprises coming at you. GMs don't go into the draft with any idea which players they will end up getting.