Devin McCourty

[Bruins29]

Also, Mcclusky can you do a full "film" breakdown of all the other FSs in the league so that we can have some context when we discuss whether DMC is worth XXX amount of dollars. Without a comparison this whole exercise is useless.

I expect the report to be in my inbox by the end of next week.

 

[Ivan]

Don't have the article but I believe BB said Dmac is one of the few players who knows everyone's assignment on every snap.

One guy, I think his name is Revis, said McCourty is the best safety in football, lmao, what a footie pajama wearing Homer.

 

[Ivan]

The weird thing about having some of the regulars who just really hate everything is that I see a post like the one off the grid made above and it makes absolutely no sense to me.

How do people not have the boat rocking chicken little's on ignore yet?

No need to, they all went missing in October. Triumph is just dipping his toes in the water to see if it is safe for them to come back in here and say stupid sh.t again. Speaking personally I can't wait for him to start telling us all how bad a GM Belichick is and how that is keeping them from winning championships. It should be hilarious.

 

[McClusky]

Were you paying attention to the Safetys we had before DMC took over one of the spots?

Appreciate you taking the time to break it down - but what is McCourty doing there: as BB would say he's doing his job. Look, before McCourty, we couldn't even afford to play 1 deep safety. His range is the reason we can play the way we do. Our pass defense since he took over the safety position has improved from day 1.

It absolutely was. The secondary has become leaps and bounds better than it was in the earlier part of the decade. McCourty has certainly been a part of that. He's a well above average safety in this league, and when compared to James Ihedigbo, Matt Slater, Nate Ebner, Rookie Tavon Wilson, Brandon Meriweather, Stever Gregory, Chung in cover 2, ect, he has been an enormous upgrade. McCourty is easily the best safety we've had since early decade Harrison. There are other factors that have played in to our improved defense as well including the injection of 2 of the better cover corners in the NFL into the lineup, Browner and Dennard pushing Arrington into more of a slot role, the emergence of Collins and Hightower, Chung's progression ect.

In a perfect world we'd keep McCourty. It's unlikely that any of the safeties we have on our roster are as good as him, nor would anyone we could draft or sign either. However, the cap makes it so each team has a finite amount of resources. We just won the SB with one of our most talented rosters in awhile, and if we added up what we pretty much agree everyone is worth we'd be well in excess of the cap. The last thing in the world I want to turn into is the Steelers of the last few seasons, keeping base salaries artifically low in year 1, and renegotiating everyone to the point where potential dead money is a problem.

I've reviewed the tape and have come to the conclusion that McCourty in his role does not warrant $9 million APY, partially because I think we have a competent player playing behind him making <$800k, but also because his impact each game isn't quite what people think. He's a good player, and what other people have posted as evidence of his worth is true, but being a great help defender or knowledgeable of other rolse does not really make someone worth one of the 5 highest APY's on the team. I think we have bigger issues at other spots, and the defense with the amount of investments we've made to that side of the ball, can soldier on without McCourty.

There are certainly worse ways to spend your money than on someone like McCourty, but I also think with who we have on the roster presently and how we play that cover 1 safety, there are better ways as well

 

[Bruins29]

No need to, they all went missing in October.

SPO, IApatsfan, Fredfromdartmouth etc etc

All losers

 

[patchick]

Don't have the article but I believe BB said Dmac is one of the few players who knows everyone's assignment on every snap.

One of the reasons the Pats have always been willing to shell out for their own young vets is the huge reduction in risk and uncertainty. You know what you're getting, mentally and physically. You know that the player can succeed HERE, with these coaches, in this defense. That means McCourty's expected value to the Patriots is higher than a comparable FA's would be.

 

[Ivan]

Are you implying that a junior analyst can't watch 725 different snaps in a span of 16 hours, and give each of them a carefully nuanced analysis? You sir are a hater

I have always wondered how anyone could truly evaluate players without actually knowing what their assignments and responsibilities really are and how those change as plays develope. I realize there is the obvious, like Trent Richardson sucks and Chad Jackson has absolutely no idea what he is doing, or Stephen Hill couldn't catch a beach ball, but you really have to know football at a coaching level to be truly able to recognize the nuances of player analysis to be able to really be insightful about it.

 

[Ivan]

One of the reasons the Pats have always been willing to shell out for their own young vets is the huge reduction in risk and uncertainty. You know what you're getting, mentally and physically. You know that the player can succeed HERE, with these coaches, in this defense. That means McCourty's expected value to the Patriots is higher than a comparable FA's would be.

Right on the money. Recognizing physical ability is much easier than determining the mental makeup of players, and that's the most important aspect in choosing players.

 

[Bruins29]

This has become another exercise in comedy. Lot of that around here lately.

 

[BradyManny]

There are certainly worse ways to spend your money than on someone like McCourty, but I also think with who we have on the roster presently and how we play that cover 1 safety, there are better ways as well

Fair post. I haven't been watching the all-22, so I can't really engage in the rebuttal that my gut instinct would like to.

 

[Deus Irae]

One of the reasons the Pats have always been willing to shell out for their own young vets is the huge reduction in risk and uncertainty. You know what you're getting, mentally and physically. You know that the player can succeed HERE, with these coaches, in this defense. That means McCourty's expected value to the Patriots is higher than a comparable FA's would be.

The 2014 franchise tag number for safeties was 8.433 million. McCourty's agent, and the Patriots, will likely use that as the basis for discussion. Whether McCourty's a $9 million player, an $8.5 million, more than that, or less than that, is going to be a function of that number applied to the specifics of McCourty, with a side of Patriots hard line negotiating style thrown in the mix.

We can sit here and talk about WAR, or DVOA, or PFF but, in the end, McCourty plays FS the way BB wants McCourty to play FS, and produces the results that BB wants. Discussion about "Well, in these pictures here, he's just playing a deep cover 1" ignores the elephant in that room, which is that BB wants him doing exactly that, because BB's biggest issue is giving up the huge play.

And that's why I expect that he'll be back, either with a shiny new long-term contract or on a one year Franchise deal.

 

[Marqui]

We need EVERYBODY from our starting secondary from last year this year. It's not a coincidence that the teams with the best 2 secondaries in the league were the best teams in the regular season and were in the superbowl. You need an elite secondary to win the superbowl in today's game, period.

 

[FourierSeries]

I was critical of BB's coaching through the first 4 games of the year. I've been critical of him as a GM for a while now. I should have known better, though. He's been incredibly successful and it's been a pleasure to watch one of the greatest coaches of all time ever since he was hired back in 2000. I thought he may have started to lose it, but he's proven me wrong this year given how the season concluded.

So I trust that he will do what is best for the team in regards to McCourty. I'd like him back, and from everything I've read he wants to be back. But who am I to question Bill?

 

[McClusky]

The 2014 franchise tag number for safeties was 8.433 million. McCourty's agent, and the Patriots, will likely use that as the basis for discussion. Whether McCourty's a $9 million player, an $8.5 million or less is going to be a function of that number applied to the specifics of McCourty.

We can sit here and talk about WAR, or DVOA, or PFF but, in the end, McCourty plays FS the way BB wants McCourty to play FS, and produces the results that BB wants. Discussion about "Well, in these pictures here, he's just playing a deep cover 1" ignores the elephant in that room, which is that BB wants him doing exactly that, because BB's biggest issue is giving up the huge play.

And that's why I expect that he'll be back, either with a shiny new long-term contract or on a one year Franchise deal.

I honestly expect the exact same thing. BB and I don't always see eye to eye. I've been right a handful of times, expectedly he's been right more. That's what makes this all fun. If your range of opinions is limited to, "this is what I expect BB to do, who am I to doubt him, so its not worth discussing otherwise" what is the point of a site like this? Any discussion is incredibly dull.

I see McCourty as more of a Reshad Jones than a ETIII (Performance wise not stylistically). If he signed a 5 year $33 million contract I'd jump for joy, but I don't have this inelastic valuation of McCourty because of how I interpret his impact vs. his replacement game to game.

 

[Oswlek]

I've reviewed the tape and have come to the conclusion that McCourty in his role does not warrant $9 million APY

This seems to be a nice summary of your position. It leaves open the possibility that Devin is worth $9mm in and of himself, but not if he is just going to play single high 80% of the snaps. Not an unreasonable position to hold.

So, assuming you are correct, the key question is, "what are the plans for the defense moving forward?", with secondary and tertiary questions of, "how much does having Devin give Bill the willingness to do other things?" and "how much better is Devin than Duron?"

 

[Deus Irae]

I honestly expect the exact same thing. BB and I don't always see eye to eye. I've been right a handful of times, expectedly he's been right more. That's what makes this all fun. If your range of opinions is limited to, "this is what I expect BB to do, so its not worth discussing otherwise" what is the point of a site like this? Any discussion is incredibly dull.

I'm not one on the "BB says, so...." posters. I'm one of the posters who gets bashed for not being one of those guys.

I see McCourty as more of a Reshad Jones than a ETIII. If he signed a 5 year $33 million contract I'd jump for joy, but I don't have this inelastic valuation of McCourty because of how I interpret his impact vs. his replacement game to game.

McCourty is playing the position at a high level. You acknowledge that he's a top 3-10 safety, which sets him up to be paid at least in franchise tag territory. The position paid $8.433 for its franchise tag value last year, and the cap is going up, not down. Your real issue about the money seems to be that, in an NFL where deep and 'cover' safeties are becoming more important, and making more money, you're still devaluing the position by comparison.

 

[Ivan]

I'm not one on the "BB says, so...." posters. I'm one of the posters who gets bashed for not being one of those guys.



McCourty is playing the position at a high level. You acknowledge that he's a top 3-10 safety, which sets him up to be paid at least in franchise tag territory. The position paid $8.433 for its franchise tag value last year, and the cap is going up, not down. Your real issue about the money seems to be that, in an NFL where deep and 'cover' safeties are becoming more important, and making more money, you're still devaluing the position by comparison.

You said the 2014 team was " the culmination of all of Belichick's mistakes. " and that pretty much sums up the tact you have been talking for years. Short of acknowledging just how consistently wrong you have been you deserve to get bashed.

It never ceases to amaze me that Belichick's biggest critics continue to insist how right they are, and that those who agreed with him and supported him are just blind homers when the reality is that it is the so called homers who have been the ones who were right all along.

 

[McClusky]

I'm not one on the "BB says, so...." posters. I'm one of the posters who gets bashed for not being one of those guys.

McCourty is playing the position at a high level. You acknowledge that he's a top 3-10 safety, which sets him up to be paid at least in franchise tag territory. The position paid $8.433 for its franchise tag value last year, and the cap is going up, not down. Your real issue about the money seems to be that, in an NFL where deep and 'cover' safeties are becoming more important, and making more money, you're still devaluing the position by comparison.

The NFL isn't exactly littered with high end safeties at the moment, I mean ETIII, Harrison Smith, and Devin McCourty aren't exactly Brian Dawkins, John Lynch, Rodney Harrison, and Ed Reed. Being a top 10 player could mean vastly different things if you were lets say a receiver vs. a safety.

Players valuations could mean drastically different things in the NFL by team. If I were a Jets fan and since the Jets are a rebuilding team, the prospect of an experienced 27 year old cover safety to mentor my young high round DB's, would probably make me argue for McCourty as a $9 million APY guy. Especially since that $9 million would just be a drop in the bucket for a team with $50 million in cap space.

We're in a bit of a different spot. We have a veteran secondary, and with Revis's contract likely renegotiated we're set to spend $25 million in cap space on our top 3 corners. Is it worth quite as much to us to have McCourty covering deep for those guys in case they make a mistake? I'd argue no.

In our system we prioritize man coverage. To me making sure we lock down enough guys who can handle being tested 1x1 is important. To me finding guys who can limit the catch from happening is more important than keeping the guy who holds 25 yard gains from becoming 35 yard gains. Just my opinion.

 

[Deus Irae]

The NFL isn't exactly littered with high end safeties at the moment, I mean ETIII, Harrison Smith, and Devin McCourty aren't exactly Brian Dawkins, John Lynch, Rodney Harrison, and Ed Reed. Being a top 10 player could mean vastly different things if you were lets say a receiver vs. a safety.

Players valuations could mean drastically different things in the NFL by team. If I were a Jets fan and since the Jets are a rebuilding team, the prospect of an experienced 27 year old cover safety to mentor my young high round DB's, would probably make me argue for McCourty as a $9 million APY guy. Especially since that $9 million would just be a drop in the bucket for a team with $50 million in cap space.

We're in a bit of a different spot. We have a veteran secondary, and with Revis's contract likely renegotiated we're set to spend $25 million in cap space on our top 3 corners. Is it worth quite as much to us to have McCourty covering deep for those guys in case they make a mistake? I'd argue no.

In our system we prioritize man coverage. To me making sure we lock down enough guys who can handle being tested 1x1 is important. To me finding guys who can limit the catch from happening is more important than keeping the guy who holds 25 yard gains from becoming 35 yard gains. Just my opinion.

Belichick's philosophy is to avoid the big plays first, and he did that this year by having McCourty, his second best player in the secondary, often staying deep to allow for different scheming underneath. So we're now at a point where you're arguing against Belichick's schematic focus. So you've now essentially argued that:

Safeties aren't worth the money
Belichick's defensive priority is not worth the money it would take to pay for it
The defense, which was #7 in scoring overall, #5 in scoring after Browner's return, #2 in scoring after the bye and #1 in the playoffs, was disappointing in the aggregate.


I don't really know where we're supposed to go from there.

 

[McClusky]

Belichick's philosophy is to avoid the big plays first, and he did that this year by having McCourty, his second best player in the secondary, often staying deep to allow for different scheming underneath. So we're now at a point where you're arguing against Belichick's schematic focus. So you've now essentially argued that:

Safeties aren't worth the money
Belichick's defensive priority is not worth the money it would take to pay for it
The defense, which was #7 in scoring overall, #5 in scoring after Browner's return, #2 in scoring after the bye and #1 in the playoffs, was disappointing in the aggregate.


I don't really know where we're supposed to go from there.

I'd actually disagree with the first sentence of your statement. The Pats coverage shell is actually quite aggressive in nature, a basic cover 2 or cover 3 is a far safer coverage against the big play. We use our cover 1 guy to prevent 20 yard gains from becoming long TD's, but in terms of big play prevention we were pretty middling.

We were tied for the bottom 3 in 20+ yard plays, and we were middle for 40+ yard plays. We use Our deep safert to prevent those 20 yard pass plays from becoming longer ones, but based on the technique used by the safeties in the gifs from earlier in the thread I'd say it doesn't necessarily matter too much if that guy is Harmon or McCourty. That has pretty much been my point all along.