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Interesting article on the National Football Post from Tony Villiotti of draftmetrics.com. Villiotti suggests that draft choices can be grouped into distinct ranges, in which there is approximately equal probability of a pick being successful:
1. 1-13
2. 14-24
3. 25-46
4. 47-73
5. 74-114
6. 115-187
7. 188 and later
The draft: When 13=1 | National Football Post
Villiotti's claim is that a draft pick in each range has approximately equal "value" - i.e., that there is a roughly equal chance of that pick achieving a certain level of success. The 13th pick has roughly the same chance of success as the 1st pick, and so there isn't much benefit to picking #1 over #13 (consider JJ Watt at #11 in 2011, Haloti Ngata at #13 in 2006, Ben Rothlisberger at #11 in 2004, etc.). So in general, it makes sense to trade up to get into a "higher" draft tier, and to trade back when it keeps you within the same tier.
Obviously, this is an imprecise science, but it's provocative.
The Patriots have generally picked near the top end of the third tier of prospects, in the 25-32 range. They traded up into tier 2 in 2012 to get Chandler Jones at #21, who has been an impact player (as was Vince Wilfork at #21 in 2004).
Again, this is very imprecise. The Pats traded up from 44 to 42 in 2010 to get Rob Gronkowski, a 2 spot trade with enormous implications; and they traded back from 21 to 27 in 2010 and got Devin McCourty, a player they had rated worth taking at 21 in the first place. But it's a useful starting point, IMO.
1. 1-13
2. 14-24
3. 25-46
4. 47-73
5. 74-114
6. 115-187
7. 188 and later
The draft: When 13=1 | National Football Post
Villiotti's claim is that a draft pick in each range has approximately equal "value" - i.e., that there is a roughly equal chance of that pick achieving a certain level of success. The 13th pick has roughly the same chance of success as the 1st pick, and so there isn't much benefit to picking #1 over #13 (consider JJ Watt at #11 in 2011, Haloti Ngata at #13 in 2006, Ben Rothlisberger at #11 in 2004, etc.). So in general, it makes sense to trade up to get into a "higher" draft tier, and to trade back when it keeps you within the same tier.
Obviously, this is an imprecise science, but it's provocative.
The Patriots have generally picked near the top end of the third tier of prospects, in the 25-32 range. They traded up into tier 2 in 2012 to get Chandler Jones at #21, who has been an impact player (as was Vince Wilfork at #21 in 2004).
Again, this is very imprecise. The Pats traded up from 44 to 42 in 2010 to get Rob Gronkowski, a 2 spot trade with enormous implications; and they traded back from 21 to 27 in 2010 and got Devin McCourty, a player they had rated worth taking at 21 in the first place. But it's a useful starting point, IMO.