Measuring "Movement"

[mayoclinic]

Yesterday I started a thread using an old Pat Kirwan measurement for "explosiveness":

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/13/1100859-measuring-power-explosion.html

It's a crude metric, and certainly only 1 small piece of the puzzle, but it's not a bad screening tool. As Kirwan noted today:

When the ball is snapped in the NFL, at least half the players on the field collide and the more explosive player wins the battle.

2014 NFL Draft: What comes next for clubs after combine? - CBSSports.com

I think that "explosiveness" is most important for players that "collide" early after the ball is snapped: linemen on both sides of the ball, TEs, LBs, and RBs.

Another important characteristic to evaluate is what I'll call for lack of a better term "movement" - how well a prospect moves. That includes:

- Straight line speed (measured most commonly by the 40 yard dash)
- Short area speed (measured most commonly by the 10 yard split)
- Quickness (measured most commonly by the 10 yard split and short shuttle)
- Lateral movement skills (measured most commonly by the 3-cone and SS)

Kirwan wrote another article in 2005 for NFL.com on the relationship between speed and quickness:

THE HUDDLE REPORT - NFL DRAFT

He suggested that the "normal" relationship worked out to about a 0.5 second difference between the 40 and short shuttle times, and suggested that a prospect with a larger differential was more quick than fast, and a prospect with a lesser differential was more fast than quick. Tyler Starr would be a poster child for this test - 4.95 40 but 4.15 short shuttle (and 6.64 3-cone). Of course, this is just a crude screen. Ron Brace (5.48 40, 4.73 short shuttle) was more quick than fast according to this screen, but the fact is he was horribly slow and not particularly quick.

As a really crude and quick screening tool for evaluating overall movement - including all 4 of the components listed above - I thought about the following:

"General movement" = 40 time + 10 yard split + 3-cone + short shuttle

I.e., add up a prospect's straight line speed, short area speed/quickness, lateral agility, and lateral speed/quickness and get a rough idea of how they move in space. It's very crude, but it gives an overall sense of general movement skills - straight line speed, short burst, and lateral movement and agility. An exceptional number in one area and help, but a terrible number in another can even things out.

Using this, I came up with a few guidelines:

1. Not very useful for NTs. They aren't graded on movement skills. OTOH, those with rare movement skills are interesting.

2. For DBs, movement skills are paramount. I used a cutoff of 16.5 seconds for elite, and 17 for excellent.

3. For LBs and DE/OLBs, I used a cutoff of 17.5 seconds for elite and 17.75 seconds for excellent.

4. For big DEs and 3-tech DTs, I used a cutoff of 18.25 seconds for elite and 18.5 seconds for excellent.

Some numbers that I came up with, FWIW:

DBs: (elite < 16.5)

- Darelle Revis (2007): 4.38 40 + 1.46 10-split + 4.08 SS + 6.56 3C = 16.48. Freakish. The gold standard, as DeMarcus Ware is for DE/OLBs.
- Aqib Talib (2008): 4.42 40 + 1.47 10-split + 4.25 SS + 6.83 3C = 16.96. Elite, especially for a big (6'1" 205#) DB.
- Earl Thomas (2010): 4.37 40 + 1.49 10-split, but didn't do SS or 3C.
- Devin McCourty (2010): 4.38 40 + 1.53 10-split + 4.07 SS + 6.7 3C = 16.68. Elite movement skills.
- Kam Chancellor (2010): 4.59 40 + 1.60 10-split + 4.41 SS + 7.36 3C = 17.96. There's more to his game than raw movement skills, obviously.
- Patrick Peterson (2011): 4.31 40 + 1.49 10-split + 4.07 SS + 6.58 3C = 16.45. Unreal. Even more freakish than Revis, especially at 6' 219#.
- Richard Sherman (2011): 4.53 40 + 1.56 10-split + 4.29 SS + 6.72 3C = 17.1. A little off excellent, but not bad, and his game is obviously not based on raw athleticism.
- Alfonzo Dennard (2012): 4.48 40 + 1.55 10-split, but didn't do SS or 3C.
- Tavon Wilson (2012): 4.52 40 + 1.60 10-split + 4.16 SS + 7.04 3C = 17.32. Borderline excellent overall movement skills.
- Trumaine Johnson (2012): 4.5 40 + 1.62 10-split + 4.15 SS + 7.2 3C = 17.47. Mediocre.
- Harrison Smith (2012): 4.54 40 + 1.54 10-split + 4.12 SS + 6.63 3C = 16.83. Freakish movement skills, especially for a 6'2" 213# safety.
- Kenny Vaccaro (2013): 4.59 40 + 1.60 10-split + 4.06 SS + 6.78 3C = 17.03. Borderline excellent, but exceptional lateral movement skills.
- Jonathan Cyprien (2013): 4.64 40 + 1.52 10-split + 4.44 SS + 7.10 3C = 17.7. Mediocre movement skills for a safety. Aaron Donald moves as well.
- DJ Swearinger (2013): 4.63 40 + 1.52 10-split + 4.11 SS + 6.7 3C = 17.03. Borderline excellent - mediocre straight speed, but exceptional lateral movement skills.
- Xavier Rhodes (2013): 4.39 40 + 1.55 10-split + 4.65 SS + 7.29 3C = 17.88 Terrible - great straight line speed, but no lateral movement ability at all.
- Logan Ryan (2013): 4.53 40 + 1.55 10-split + 4.06 SS + 6.69 3C = 16.83. Elite movement skills.
- Duron Harmon (2013): 4.51 40 + 1.60 10-split + 4.4 SS + 7.02 3C = 17.53.
- Jason Verrett (2014): 4.38 40 + 1.47 10-split + 4.0 SS + 6.67 3C = 16.92. Excellent.
- Lamarcus Joyner (2014): 4.55 40 + 1.50 10-split + 4.4 SS + 7.26 3C = 17.71. Abysmal lateral movement skills for a DB.
- Dontae Johnson (2014): 4.45 40 + 1.56 10-split + 4.24 SS + 6.82 3C = 17.07. Borderline excellent for a 6'2" 200# DB.

A lot of the 2014 DBs either didn't have 10 yard split times posted, or didn't do one of the drills. Bummer.

(continued due to length restrictions)

 

[mayoclinic]

(continued from previous post)

LBs/pass rushing DEs: (elite < 17.25, excellent < 17.5)

- DeMarcus Ware (2005): 4.56 40 + 1.62 10-split + 4.07 SS + 6.85 3C = . 17.1 Freakish at 251#, combined with an explosiveness of 75. The standard by which everyone is judged.
- Patrick Willis (2007): 4.51 40 + 1.53 10-split + 4.46 SS + 7.23 3C = 17.73. Good, but not exceptional. Though his pro day (4.37 40, 7.10 3-Cone) pushes him down to 17.36, which is excellent.
- Jerod Mayo (2008): 4.54 40 + 1.50 10-split + 4.29 SS + 7.31 3C = 17.64. Very good, but not exceptional.
- Connor Barwin (2009): 4.47 40 + 1.53 10-split + 4.18 SS + 6.87 3C = 17.05. Freakish. The board's all time binky improved on DeMarcus Ware's numbers at 256#, and had elite explosiveness (71) to boot.
- Michael Johnson (2009): 4.61 40 + 1.54 10-split + 4.37 SS + 7.42 3C = 17.94. Great straight line speed but mediocre lateral movement skills. But also elite explosiveness (76).
- Navorro Bowman (2010): 4.62 40 + 1.60 10-split + 4.2 SS + 6.7 3C = 17.12. Elite movement skills - solid straight line speed, but unreal lateral agility. Compare with Luke Kuechly.
- Sean Lee (2010): 4.6 40 + 1.54 10-split + 4.16 SS + 6.89 3C = 17.19. Elite movement skills for one of the most fluid ILBs in the league.
- Jason Pierre-Paul (2010: 4.71 40 + 1.65 10-split + 4.67 SS + 7.18 3C = 18.21. Not elite.
- Von Miller (2011): 4.42 40 + 1.57 10-split + 4.06 SS + 6.70 3C = 16.75. Unreal. Would make the cutoff for excellent for DBs.
- Aldon Smith (2011): 4.74 40 + 1.66 10-split + 4.5 SS + 7.19 3C = 18.09. Not elite.
- Robert Quinn (2011): 4.60 40 + 1.61 10-split + 4.31 SS + 6.99 3C = 17.51. Borderline elite.
- Chandler Jones (2012): 4.77 40 + 1.66 10-split + 4.38 SS + 7.07 3C = 17.88. Pretty solid overall.
- Dont'a Hightower (2012): 4.62 40 + 1.58 10-split + 4.64 SS + 7.55 3C = 18.39. Not good movement skills - decent straight line speed, but no lateral movement.
- Lavonte David (2012): 4.57 40 + 1.56 10-split + 4.22 SS + 7.28 3C = 17.63. Very good movement skills, but not exceptional - David's rare instincts probably have a lot to do with his overall play.
- Bobby Wagner (2012): 4.46 40 + 1.57 10-split + 4.28 SS + 7.1 3C = 17.41. Excellent movement skills and elite explosiveness (73).
- Mychal Kendricks (2012): 4.44 40 + 1.53 10-split + 4.14 SS + 6.68 3C = 16.79. Freakish movement skills and elite explosiveness (73).
- Luke Kuechly (2012): 4.58 40 + 1.56 10-spit + 4.12 SS + 6.92 3C = 17.18. Elite movement skills and explosiveness (75) combined with great motor and processing speed = freakish prospect.
- Demario Davis (2012): 4.49 40 + 1.54 10-split + 4.28 SS + 7.18 3C = 17.49. Excellent movement skills, combined with explosiveness (70). One of my binkies in 2012.
- Zach Brown (2012): 4.44 40 + 1.52 10-split + 4.32 SS + 7.26 3C = 17.54. Borderline excellent, but better straight line speed than lateral movement.
- Courtney Upshaw (2012): 4.74 40 + 1.67 10-split + 4.6 SS + 7.32 3C = 18.33. Like his teammate Hightower, poor movement skills.
- Jamie Collins (2013): 4.59 40 + 1.58 10-split + 4.32 SS + 7.1 SS = 17.59. Borderline excellent, combined with exceptional explosiveness (71).
- Alec Ogletree (2013): 4.64 40 + 1.56 10-split + 4.39 SS + 7.07 3C = 17.66. Good but not elite.
- Dion Jordan (2013): 4.54 40 + 1.61 10-split + 4.35 SS + 7.02 3C = 17.52. Borderline excellent.
- Ziggy Ansah (2013): 4.56 40 + 1.62 10-split + 4.26 SS + 7.11 3C = 17.55. Borderline excellent.
- Barkevious Mingo (2013): 4.53 40 + 1.57 10-split + 4.39 SS + 6.84 3C = 17.2. Elite movement skills. Though compare Aaron Donald's numbers at 285# - not that far off.
- Anthony Barr (2014): 4.66 40 + 1.56 10-split + 4.19 SS + 6.82 3-cone = 17.23. Barr has elite movement ability for a big pass rushing LB.
- Khalil Mack (2014): 4.65 40 + 1.56 10-split + 4.18 SS + 7.18 3-cone = 17.57. Borderline excellent. Mack is more explosive than Barr, but Barr has better movement skills.
- Kevin Pierre-Louis (2014): 4.51 40 + 1.53 3-cone + 4.02 SS + 6.92 3-cone = 16.98. Freakish movement skills, combined with explosiveness (77) - a freak athlete.
- Jordan Tripp (2014): 4.67 40 + 1.58 10-split + 3.96 SS + 6.89 3-cone = 17.1. Elite movement skills combined with borderline-elite explosiveness (69).
- Kyle Van Noy (2014): 4.71 40 + 1.60 10-split + 4.02 SS + 7.22 3-cone = 17.55. Borderline excellent.
- Tyler Starr (2014): 4.95 40 + 1.65 10-split + 4.15 SS + 6.64 3C = 17.39. Poor long speed, but excellent overall movement skills for a 250# guy. Better than Jamie Collins. If he were a bit faster he'd be elite.
- Trent Murphy (2014): 4.86 40 + 1.66 10-split + 4.22 SS + 6.78 3-cone = 17.52. Borderline excellent. Note that Murphy's movement skills are almost identical to JJ Watt's (though Watt was much heavier, and had freakish skills for his size). He's not particularly explosive and lacks straight line speed, but he moves fairly well overall.

Unfortunately, there are no short shuttle times posted yet for most of the 2014 DEs, including Jadeveon Clowney.

big DEs/3tech DTs: (elite < 18.25, outstanding < 18.5)

- Geno Atkins (2010): 4.75 40 + 1.68 10-split + 4.43 SS + 7.33 3C = 18.21. Elite movement skills combined with elite explosiveness.
- Ndamukong Suh (2010): 5.03 40 + 1.69 10-split + 4.44 SS + 7.21 3C = 18.37. Excellent movement skills for a guy who's game was based on explosiveness (75).
- Gerald McCoy (2010): 5.04 + 1.68 10-split + 4.48 SS + 7.32 3C = 18.52. Borderline excellent.
- Lamarr Houston (2010): 4.84 40 + 1.68 10-split + 4.71 SS + 7.61 3C = 18.84. Good but not great. Lacks lateral movement skills.
- JJ Watt (2011): 4.81 40 + 1.64 10-split + 4.21 SS + 6.88 3-cone = 17.54. Amazing, competitive with LBs/pass rushers. Combined with his 81 explosiveness score, it suggests that Watt was a freakish athletic talent. Off the charts.
- Nick Fairley (2011): 4.84 40 + 1.72 10-split + 4.56 SS + 7.14 3C = 18.26. Borderline elite movement skills.
- Cameron Jordan (2011): 4.74 40 + 1.64 10-split + 4.37 SS + 7.07 3C = 17.82. Freakishly elite movement skills.
- Marvin Austin (2011): 4.84 40 + 1.64 10-split + 4.40 SS + 7.33 3C = 18.21. Athletically, Austin was exceptional (explosiveness rating of 77 as well). But above the neck, he just didn't have it.
- Fletcher Cox (2012): 4.77 40 + 1.65 10-split + 4.53 SS + 7.07 3C = 18.02. Exceptional movement skills.
- Sheldon Richardson (2013): 4.96 40 + 1.68 10-split + 4.59 SS + 7.33 3C = 18.56. Borderline excellent.
- Sharrif Floyd (2013): 4.87 40 + 1.70 10-spit + 4.75 SS + 7.40 3C = 18.72. Good but not exceptional.
- Lawrence Okoye (2013): 4.84 40 + 1.67 + 4.65 SS + 7.52 3C = 18.68. Great speed but limited lateral movement. Still not bad overall. Combined with his explosiveness number of 76, an elite athletic specimen, which is why I wanted the Pats to take a late round flier on him.
- Aaron Donald (2014): 4.68 40 + 1.59 10-split + 4.39 SS + 7.11 3C = 17.77. Freakish movement skills (comparable to Cameron Jordan) in addition to an explosiveness score of 76.

No short shuttle times recorded yet for Ra'Shede Hageman, Timmy Jernigan or Caraun Reid, unfortunately.

Again, this is only intended as a quick screening tool, and it only looks at one component of athleticism, which itself is only a small part of the overall picture. But when I look at Aaron Donald, for example, I see a prospect with a combination of elite explosiveness (75) and elite movement skills; factor in his technical prowess, motor and football intelligence and I get very excited. JJ Watt is sort of the prototype for a prospect who had both off the charts explosiveness (81) and movement skills, plus a non-stop motor and drive to excel. Luke Kuechly also showed a freakish combination of movement skills, explosiveness, instincts, processing speed and work ethic.

I'm curious as to whether people think this has any utility.

 

[sircole]

With my very limited knowledge, I think this is a great start when trying to quantify a defender's performance on the field.

But I really want to thank you for these types of detailed posts that spur conversations on this forum.

 

[mayoclinic]

BTW, some other Patriots' defenders:

- Chris Jones. Explosion score: 31 BP + 30 VJ + 8 BJ = 69 (borderline elite). Movement score: 5.1 40 + 1.87 10-split + 4.44 SS + 7.34 3C = 18.75. Good, but not great.

- Rob Ninkovich. Explosion score: 23 BP + 34 VJ (outstanding) + 9 VJ = 66 (very good). Movement score: 4.80 40 + 1.66 10-split + 4.18 SS + 6.96 3C = 17.6 (very good). Ninkovich is an above-average athlete at his position, which, combined with his intelligence and field-generalship, makes for a very good player.

 

[mayoclinic]

With my very limited knowledge, I think this is a great start when trying to quantify a defender's performance on the field.

But I really want to thank you for these types of detailed posts that spur conversations on this forum.

Yeah, I'm bored. That's part of the reason. The other is that the Combine just finished, and we have all this information, with no framework for what to do with it.

Pro days will be coming up, and lots more prospects will have "complete" data to plug in. I personally plan on using these 2 as athletic screens. Someone who jumps out in terms of explosiveness or movement skills is worth a look. Someone combining both is particularly noteworthy. Again, I'm not by any means suggesting that this is anything more than a tool, or a tiny part of what makes a good prospect; but it helped me, and I think it would have been useful at looking at prospects in the past.

Imagine what our defense would look like (both athletically and in terms of overall play) if we had traded up for Harrison Smith in 2012 to go with Chandler Jones, and then taken a LB like Lavonte David, Bobby Wagner or Mychal Kendricks.

 

[mayoclinic]

Looking at the Pats' defense, from a purely athletic perspective:

DL:

- DE's Chandler Jones (67 explosiveness, 17.88 movement score) measures up very well athletically for a 6'5" 265#+ RDE. He compares reasonably well athletically with Robert Quinn, Aldon Smith and Jason Pierre-Paul, even though he may lack an "elite 1st step". Rob Ninkovich has above average explosiveness (66) and excellent movement skills (17.6) as well. Michael Buchanan has decent explosiveness (64) and movement skills (17.71, notably with a 6.91 3C). Jake Bequette had exceptional lateral mobility and overall movement (4.07 SS, 6.9 3C, overall movement score 17.38) and good explosiveness based on his vertical and broad jump (34" VJ, 9'5" BJ; no BP recorded) - his athleticism isn't the reason why he hasn't been able to get on the field.

- Vince Wilfork was an elite NT in terms of explosiveness (70), with above average agility for the position. Sealver Siliga has above-average explosiveness (66). Chris Jones has borderline elite explosiveness (69) and decent mobility for the position (18.75). Joe Vellano has poor movement skills (19.21) and marginal explosiveness (61) - he's an "effort" player. With Wilfork a question-mark to return to his prior form, there is a big need to upgrade the athleticism and explosiveness at this position.

LB:

- Jerod Mayo is a very good overall athlete, more explosive (71) than exceptionally mobile (17.64). He has above-average athleticism combined with exceptional processing speed and field-generalship and a great work ethic, which is why he is a cornerstone player.

- Jamie Collins has freakish athleticism, with elite explosiveness (71) and borderline elite movement skills (17.59). He needed to get stronger, and I believe he has.

- Dont'a Hightower is limited athletically, neither very mobile (18.39) nor particularly explosive (33" VJ, 9'9" BJ; no BP recorded). He's a tough, savvy player, but I'm not sure I see the raw athleticism to stand out.

- Brandon Spikes had very limited explosiveness (29" VJ, 9'3" BJ, no BP recorded) and terribly straight line speed, though his 6.97 3C showed better lateral mobility.

- Dane Fletcher has surprising explosiveness (74) and excellent mobility (17.49).

Secondary:

- Devin McCourty (16.68), Logan Ryan (16.83) and Aqib Talib (16.96) all have elite movement skills. Tavon Wilson (17.16) is slightly above average athletically, Duron Harmon (17.53) very pedestrian. Nate Ebner is actually the standout athlete of the group in terms of both explosiveness (72) and mobility (16.72). Athletically he could be a tremendous strong safety, but it obviously takes more than just athleticism to succeed in the NFL.

 

[manxman2601]

I'm glad you created this over two posts. It gave me the chance to "like" it twice. Very interesting stuff. Great job.

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm glad you created this over two posts. It gave me the chance to "like" it twice. Very interesting stuff. Great job.

As I said, I was bored, but I think it's a decent quick screening approach. Obviously, not the whole picture, but hopefully useful.

 

[mayoclinic]

Some numbers for offensive prospects of interest:

- Brandon Cooks 4.33 40 + 1.51 10-split + 3.81 SS + 6.76 3C = 16.41.
- Odell Beckham 4.43 40 + 1.5 10-split + 3.94 SS + 6.69 3C = 16.56.
- Michael Campanaro 4.46 40 + 1.53 10-split + 4.01 SS + 6.77 3C = 16.77. Explosiveness = 69.
- Kevin Norwood 4.42 40 + 1.56 10-split + 4.32 SS + 6.68 3C = 17.04.
- Jeff Janis 4.48 40 + 1.47 10-split + 3.98 SS + 6.64 3C = 16.51 (at 6'3" 219#!), with an explosiveness of 67. Damn fine.
- Kelvin Benjamin not very explosive (45) or mobile (17.93). Mike Evans much more mobile (17.42), though that's not his game.

And, BTW:

-LeGarrette Blount: explosiveness 62, mobility 17.45
- Shane Vereen: explosiveness 74, mobility 17.28
- Stevan Ridley: explosiveness 63, mobility 17.2 (but 6.78 3C)
- Julian Edelman: explosiveness 60, mobility 16.58 (exceptional lateral movement skills with SS of 3.92 and 3C of 6.62)
- Aaron Dobson: explosiveness 61, mobility 17.4 (good straight line speed, poor lateral agility)
- Kenbrell Thompkins: explosiveness 51 (limited by 8 BP reps), mobility 17.11.
- Josh Boyce: explosiveness 66, mobility 16.66. Outstanding.
- Mark Harrison: explosiveness 65 (limited by 17 BP), mobility 17.28.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Interesting work. I don't know that the Patriots use any sort of "formula" here, but, just a thought: it wouldn't surprise me at all if their formula used a weighted average, much like QB ratings do—putting more weight on, say, SS and 3-cone than 40s.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

I'm curious as to whether people think this has any utility.

It's better than Explosion.

 

[manxman2601]

I'm just about to go to work so can't do it myself. Is there any chance you could compare Julian Edelman and Michael Campanaro? He didn't quite have his short area movement skills but seemed very similar to Edelman otherwise. If we are going to lose Edelman, Campanaro seems like a good day 3 replacement. Would appreciate it.

 

[manxman2601]

It's better than Explosion.

Why? I think explosion is a crucial asset for an NFL player. Or are you specifically criticising the formula used?

 

[doesntmatter1]

If you don't mind, can you tell me how receivers Jordan Matthews, Allen Robinson, and defensive end James Gayle stack up?

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

Why? I think explosion is a crucial asset for an NFL player. Or are you specifically criticising the formula used?

The formula. I don't like that short armed player have an advantage in Kirwin's Explosion stat.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

I'm just about to go to work so can't do it myself. Is there any chance you could compare Julian Edelman and Michael Campanaro? He didn't quite have his short area movement skills but seemed very similar to Edelman otherwise. If we are going to lose Edelman, Campanaro seems like a good day 3 replacement. Would appreciate it.

Sure.

If you don't mind, can you tell me how receivers Jordan Matthews, Allen Robinson, and defensive end James Gayle stack up?

You know it's just simple addition right? "Movement = 40 time + 10 yard split + 3-cone + short shuttle"

 

[doesntmatter1]

Also, one last one. Linebacker James Morris of Iowa. Overall I didn't like any of the instincts of the lb in this draft then I found him.

 

[manxman2601]

The formula. I don't like that short armed player have an advantage in Kirwin's Explosion stat.

It's the use of the bench press that bothers me. 10 yard split would be better.

 

[manxman2601]

Interesting to note that, although Tavon Austin didn't run a 3 cone, Brandin Cooks beat or tied Austin on every single measure (including official 40 by one one hundredth).

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

I'm just about to go to work so can't do it myself. Is there any chance you could compare Julian Edelman and Michael Campanaro? He didn't quite have his short area movement skills but seemed very similar to Edelman otherwise. If we are going to lose Edelman, Campanaro seems like a good day 3 replacement. Would appreciate it.

Campanaro: 16.75
Edelman: 16.58

If you don't mind, can you tell me how receivers Jordan Matthews, Allen Robinson, and defensive end James Gayle stack up?

Matthews doesn't have 10-yard splits available. Gayle's faster 40 doesn't have a corresponding 10 yard split, but his slower one does.

Robinson: 17.1