I have tried looking at this game from a distance to see if I can find a way for Baltimore to win this game straight up, and I can't. The Ravens offense is pretty basic, they pretty much run on first down and pass if the down and distance chart says that you should. So then I looked at the Pats defense, thinking that they are maybe the worst defense I have ever seen, but what I saw really surprised me. Especially late in the season the NE defense has gotten considerably better as the game has progressed. They have won nine straight games and in those games they have blown people out, and come back from huge deficits to win.
For the Ravens to win they have to dominate the defensive front and Rice has to run all over them. Their record has been used to explain this, because their four losses came in games that Rice touched the ball less than 20 times, but that stat is backward. The reason Rice didn't touch the ball was because their offense wasn't working and they had to throw the ball. That also points t the fact that Flaco is just an OK QB at this point in his career. If you look at last week's game, he was awful, he missed recievers and worse, lead recievers into hits. If the Pats can sack him early and put any pressure on him the rest of the way, he becomes a liability. Their offensive scheme is really basic also. They don't do a whole lot of bunch formations, not a whole lot of misdirection. They run the ball, and run the ball some more. Stop Rice, stop the Ravens.
For the Pats to win the offensive line has to keep Brady clean, it is really that easy. The way to beat Brady is to apply pressure up the middle. Once he gets hit a couple of times he starts looking for the rush and hurries his progression. The Pats offense is far too diverse to be stopped by rushing 4. Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez each deserve to be double teamed but the Ravens can't commit 6 DB to their base defense. The Jets won last year doing that, but that problem has been solved and Brady won't let the Jets happen to him again. So the Ravens will have to use zone blitzes and disguise their coverages, but are they going to drop Ray Lewis or Suggs into coverage against Gronk? Maybe once or twice, but if they do that on a regular basis they will get crushed. Also, if they do decide to load up on DB's, BJGE and Woodhead have a field day between the tackles and on the edge.
All week I was looking for a close game, 3 to 4 points, but the more I looked at these two teams I see a different game. If the Pats can keep the pass rush off of Brady the Pats win by two touchdowns. If Brady is hit and sacked, the Pats lose by a touchdown. The offensive line is playing really well right now, and as long as that continues I do not see how the Ravens can score enough to win.
