Week 14 at Bears pre-game analysis, keys, opinions

[kkpat]

Why the Patriots Don't Particularly Scare Me - Da' Bears Blog
Why the Patriots Don't Particularly Scare Me

The Patriots are not as good as they played Monday night. The Jets are certainly not as bad. But perhaps most importantly, the Bears defense is far better than this current Jets defense and better equipped to play the Pats. Let me explain.

* If Tom Brady is given time in the pocket, he's lethal. The Jets have struggled all season long to generate pressure with four men and been forced into predictable blitz schemes. This made them susceptible to the screen and short routes all night. The emergence of Israel Idonije opposite Julius Peppers seems to have cured this issue for the Bears.
* The Pats can't run the ball effectively and the Bears are not a team they'll want to spread out and throw 50 times at - a la their approach to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
* The Pats passing game is the kind of passing game the Bears love to play. They thrive on the short slant route. They don't really have a home run hitter on the outside since Randy Moss was shipped to Minnesota. The Bears are more than willing to make Brady go 10-12 plays each drive, stiffen up in the red zone and force Shayne Graham to make big field goals.

 

[jmt57]

It's funny that the writer linked above says the Patriots "Pats can't run the ball effectively". I've seen that from fans and writers of opposing teams on a weekly basis this year. I blame the misconception on fantasy football; the Patriots don't have any fantasy football studs other than Brady, so too many people fall into the trap of assuming everyone else is mediocre.

The guy who wrote that should have spent two minutes in research before hitting the submit button. The Patriots are averaging 4.2 yards per carry; slightly above average (13th) - while the Bears are a below average 23rd with 3.9 yards per carry. The Pats are 13th in the NFL with 111.5 rushing yards per game; the Bears are 22nd with 102.9. And the Patriots are second in the NFL with 15 rushing touchdowns; the Bears are 24th with only 7.

If the Pats "can't run the ball effectively", what does that say about the Bears' running game?



Similarly, the writer - just like we have seen every week for a while now - trots out the 'Pats don't have a deep threat since Moss was traded, that makes them easier to defend' line. I can completely understand people saying that when the trade first occurred - but you're still saying that now? That's just plain dumb.


Someone in the comment section - 99% of which is a waste of time - suggested that the Bears leave their linebackers in coverage because that is where they are best. I'll admit I have not watched the Bears much, but it seems to me from watching the Pats all season that is a matchup that has favored the Pats all year long; players like Hernandez and Woodhead will leave linebackers in the dust.

 

[SVN]

ESPN:Martz's teams have struggled vs. Belichick

Martz's teams have struggled vs. Belichick - Chicago Bears Blog - ESPN Chicago

i think the 2004 win was one of my favorites. Pats were coming after a beatdown at pitt with secondary beatup and troy brown playing CB

 

[Kasmir]

It's funny that the writer linked above says the Patriots "Pats can't run the ball effectively". I've seen that from fans and writers of opposing teams on a weekly basis this year. I blame the misconception on fantasy football; the Patriots don't have any fantasy football studs other than Brady, so too many people fall into the trap of assuming everyone else is mediocre.

The guy who wrote that should have spent two minutes in research before hitting the submit button. The Patriots are averaging 4.2 yards per carry; slightly above average (13th) - while the Bears are a below average 23rd with 3.9 yards per carry. The Pats are 13th in the NFL with 111.5 rushing yards per game; the Bears are 22nd with 102.9. And the Patriots are second in the NFL with 15 rushing touchdowns; the Bears are 24th with only 7.

If the Pats "can't run the ball effectively", what does that say about the Bears' running game?

By DVOA, the teams are polar opposites. The Patriots have not only the best overall and passing team DVOA by far, but they are also the most efficient *rushing* team as well:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2010 OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Note that the Bears are 28th in passing DVOA and 26th in running DVOA.

The Patriot's running attack may not get lots of yards, but those yards count a lot. The Bears running attack is very inefficient. As an example of the DVOA system, a 5 yard rush on 3rd and 7 counts for a lot less than a 3 yard rush on 3 and 2. and it's all adjusted for the strength of the opposition. This also corresponds to what our eyes have told us: Benny and Danny are running very effectively. The Bears: not.

To be fair, the Chicago offense has high variance -- 31st in the league -- which means that results may vary from week to week, and they may also be trending upwards.

Chicago's 30th ranked offense is going against the Patriot's 27th ranked defense, and the Patriot's 1st ranked offense is going against Chicago's 5th ranked defense.

Chicago's special teams are 3rd ranked, the Patriot's 10th. This is a big advantage for Chicago particularly in both their return games.

Interestingly, the Patriot's OLINE is 2nd ranked in rushing offense and the Bears DLINE is 1st ranked in rushing defense. The Pats' OLINE is 6th in pass pro vs the Bears' 17th ranking in pass rush. The Pats' DLINE is 24th ranked vs both the run and the pass, while Chicago's OLINE is 28th in run blocking and 32nd in pass blocking.

Overall, the Patriot's net out as the 1st ranked DVOA team at 49.2%, and Chicago the 30th ranked at -10.9%. But the Bears are 31st in overall variance, meaning they are at least unpredictable, and may be improving recently. Chicago will need to play their best game and win the field position and turnover battle to take this game.

With a Monday night shortened week with travel after such a huge game, no question the Patriot's could lose this game if they play flat at all.

 

[RayClay]

It is not so much Cutler being all that much more efficient as it is getting Martz to stop being such a blockhead and giving up that 7 step drop game that was giving Cutler all those concussions. Since they've started mixing it up and giving the run game more of a chance, they've been better.

The key is to hit Marshall Faulk on every play. Yeah, I know he's retired, but hit him anyway, he's a jerk.

 

[RayClay]

Why the Patriots Don't Particularly Scare Me - Da' Bears Blog
Why the Patriots Don't Particularly Scare Me

The Bears are more than willing to make Brady go 10-12 plays each drive, stiffen up in the red zone

Good luck with that strategy.

Red Zone 3rd (32 TDs in 49 trips, 65.3 percent)

I hope this guy's a coach.

 

[BTTA]

After reading the Globe article this morning, I don't think we have much of a chance up there. I guess we are just stuck hoping that Miami whips the Jets. Gosh it's tough being a Pats fan, always playing better teams and being the underdog. Glad we have the Globe to help us keep a proper perspective.

Patriots must bear down against this line - The Boston Globe

 

[Headcase]

The thing about the Bears is they have the type of defense that has the best chance at stopping Brady.

The Key to stopping Brady is being able to apply pressure while only sending 4 and keeping everyone in covereage.

The issue with that is the type of coverage the secondary plays. The deep Tampa-2 forces quick short throws, it is based on stopping the deep ball. What does this offense do best?

I did read somewhere that they are putting down new sod at the stadium this week. Any rain in the forecast this week? If I recall correctly if it rains right after new sod is put down it can really cause havoc - and be worse than if they had just played on the old turf. The other thing I'm thinking is that since the Bears played in Detroit Sunday, why didn't they put down the new sod last week to give it more time to set?

There won't be any rain here this week, it is too cold for it. It is important to know that the Bears don't own Soldier Field, the Chicago Park District does. The Bears had no real control over when the sod was laid down, and most say that the Park District are morons.

SSDD

 

[jmt57]

Kasmir: thanks for looking up that info from Football Outsiders.
I meant to do that last night but got a little sidetracked.



Mike Reiss has a short initial video preview on the game, asking how the Patriots will respond after a big emotional letdown; Reiss feels it won't be a problem. He also talks about Jay Cutler, Julius Peppers, and the Patriots' defense.

Reiss' P.A.T. on Patriots-Bears - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston



Some more on the new turf at Soldier Field:
It Is What It Is: Patriots will be on a new surface this Sunday in Chicago

“The turf is what it is,” Cutler told reporters who asked about the natural-grass surface at a Wednesday news conference. “With our speed, we would like to get something a little bit tighter, but we probably have one of the worst fields in the league at this point. We did last year, as well. We’ve got to deal with it, and our guys know it. They are aware of how to cut and how to move on it. So we’ve just got to go out there and play.”

Cutler added that he hears “a lot of stuff [from opposing players] after the game and during pre-game about what cleats to wear … exactly how torn up [the surface] is. There’s usually a [high school] game the day before. It’s a shame.”

The Chicago Park District resodded the playing surface late last month, and Sunday’s game will be the first time the Bears have played at home since the turf was replaced. New England coach Bill Belichick is well-aware of the fact that the Patriots will be playing on a new surface.

“We’ve been through that before here. We know what it’s like to sod a field in December,” Belichick said. “You can imagine how well that’s going to take. But, it is what it is. Both teams are playing on the same field. You just have to play with your feet under you, play with good body balance and bend your knees, make sure you’re using proper technique and cutting off your inside, outside foot and play with good balance. That’s what it comes down to. If you’re out of control, then chances are the field isn’t going to be able to support those cuts.

“We practice on grass all the time. I don’t think it’s that big of a thing. Whatever the conditions are out there, they are. It’s the middle of December and we’re in Chicago. I don’t think anyone is thinking of suntan lotion.”

Belichick, Pats have to cram for the Bears 'O' | csnne.com

Getting ready to travel to play the 9-3 Bears just five days after dispatching the 9-2 Jets, Belichick is wary of the turnaround. The Bears are different than they were in 2009, especially offensively under new offensive coordinator Mike Martz.

"It's the same players, but how [Martz] uses them is going to be a little different from the '09 season," Belichick explained. "You prepare for that the best you can, but on a short week you try to get a little bit of a jump on them during the Monday night week.

"You just have to do the best you can here on Tuesday and make Tuesday into a Monday and Tuesday," Belichick explained. "Try to cram it in there and try to get the players caught up to speed on Wednesday. I think today will be tough day for everybody. It already has been. But what you hope for is that when you come back in here tomorrow, you're on schedule for a normal Thursday. Our goal today is to get to where we normally are by tomorrow morning. It's a challenge. One of the main things we emphasized to players this morning was paying attention in the walk-through, in films and in the game-planning."

The weather in Chicago this weekend is going to be heinous. This has Belichick terribly unnerved.

"It's the middle of December and it's Chicago. I don't think anybody's bringing their suntan lotion," he shrugged

 

[jmt57]

Lovie Smith talks about several topics, including Julius Peppers, the Bear's defense, Tom Brady, Logan Mankins and the Pats' offensive line, and Jay Cutler:

Bears coach Lovie Smith discusses Patriots - Extra Points - Boston.com

Q: To what do you attribute Jay Cutler’s better decision making this past month?

LS: I just try not to go back too far, back to what happened in the past. I just know what’s happening now and he is making great decisions. We put in a whole new offensive system this year. It takes a little bit of time to get it down, and that’s what Jay’s done. I know he’s just continued to work hard every day he’s been here. He’s always taken responsibility as the quarterback and on the team for anything that’s going on. I just know he’s making great decisions now. I’m not just talking about decisions on when to run, but to throw. I couldn’t be more pleased. [Tom] Brady is playing great football, but Cutler since the bye is playing great football also.

It Is What It Is: Bill Belichick takes on Mike Martz… again

So, Bill, how has Martz put his imprint on this Bears offense led by Jay Cutler.

“Everywhere,” Belichick said with no hesitation. “The way they break the huddle. From there on, it’s Mike Martz. They shift. They motion. They use a lot of different formations. They run the concepts that he’s always coached – the passing concepts, the running-game concepts they have. Mike has a great set of complementary plays so if you stop one thing, then he’s got the complementary play. If you’re stopping one, then you’re really not going to be able to stop the other. It’s always a bit of a guessing game with that. He’s got a scheme that’s very challenging to everybody on the defense: the coaching staff, the front, the linebackers, the secondary.”

Martz has something he didn’t have in Detroit or San Francisco - a classic, strong-armed quarterback who can get the ball down the field.

 

[jmt57]

It Is What It Is: The Big Nickel: Tom Brady preaches the value of YAC and the future of Dan Koppen

2. The Patriots went through a walkthrough in the Dana Farber Field House, and cornerback Jonathan Wilhite, defensive lineman Mike Wright and center Dan Koppen were not present for the media portion of practice. The absence of Koppen — and the report from Adam Caplan of Fox Sports that the Patriots worked out veteran center Jake Grove — is enough to cause speculation that New England could be concerned about the long-term health of Koppen, especially given the fact that it was a walkthrough and not a full-pad practice.

Two points to keep in mind here: One, Koppen appeared to go wire-to-wire on Monday night, and he was pleasant and chatty with the media in the wake of Monday night’s win, usually a sign that there are no injury issues with a player. Two, teams will often work out available players at this time of the season to gauge their ability in case they do need to pick them up somewhere down the line. Regardless, more about the state of Koppen’s health should be revealed when the injury report is released at 4 p.m. on Wednesday.

It Is What It Is: Jonathan Wilhite and Mike Wright miss practice, while Dan Koppen not listed

The Patriots had two players miss Wednesday’s walkthrough — cornerback Jonathan Wilhite and defensive lineman Mike Wright. In addition, center Dan Koppen, who wasn’t seen during media portion of practice, not listed on injury report. (UPDATE: A Patriots spokesman indicated that Koppen did join the team at practice.) Here’s the complete report:

Did Not Participate
CB Jonathan Wilhite (hip)
DL Mike Wright (concussion)

Limited Participation
QB Tom Brady (right shoulder/foot)
NT Myron Pryor (back)

It Is What It Is: Three miss practice for the Bears

The Bears had three players out of practice on Wednesday. Here’s the complete report from Chicago.

Did Not Participate
LB Nick Roach (back)
RB Chester Taylor (knee)
LB Piso Tinoisamoa (knee)

 

[jmt57]

Is Bears' Defense the Best Defensive Unit Patriots Will Face This Year? - NESN.com

Peppers may be the single-biggest reason the Bears are in control of the NFC North, a division no one saw them finishing better than third in. The defensive end is helping the Bears generate a pass rush that they've lacked in years past, and as a result, Chicago is in the top half of the league's passing defense.

Their run defense, aided mostly by linebackers Urlacher and Lance Briggs, is one of the best in the NFL against the run. In fact, they're second to only the Steelers in run defense.

The Bears are giving up a little more than 300 yards a game (third in the league), and they've given up the third-fewest points in the league. Interestingly enough, though, the Patriots have played or will play, seven of the teams in the top 12 in the league in terms of points allowed.

Of course, the Patriots are certainly responding in those games. In their six games with those teams (they've played the Jets twice and still have to play the Bears, Packers and Dolphins again), the Patriots are averaging 29 points. That's again, against the league's best scoring defenses.

The Patriots have played three teams already this season -- Jets, Ravens and Steelers -- that were considered to be at least in the discussion for the league's best defense, and the Patriots handled them all quite easily for the most part. Are the Bears better than those defensive units?

 

[JSn]

Brady said he did some work on the Bears defense before diving into Jets tape during the long week. I doubt he was the only one. No way the Pats had to cram for this. They've also got game-plan installation down to one day.

 

[IllegalContact]

its a standard tampa 2......

the 2 TE offense with short routes is the perfect solution for that.

 

[IllegalContact]

the best defense for the bears will be their playing surface....

Jay Cutler piles on, rips Soldier Field playing surface - NFL - Yahoo! Sports

 

[Sivy]

Cutler is not a good QB.

 

[KoolAid]

The key is to hit Marshall Faulk on every play. Yeah, I know he's retired, but hit him anyway, he's a jerk.

LOL - this might not win the game, but I like it as a plan every week:rocker:

Call Big Willie, if he's not too busy I am sure he would oblige

 

[jmt57]

its a standard tampa 2......

the 2 TE offense with short routes is the perfect solution for that.

I was thinking the same thing. I saw on a Bears' fan site that some there thought their Tampa 2 was the perfect defense to neutralize the Pats' offense. I don't really follow that line of reasoning, but perhaps one of the guys here who understands and can communicate X's and O's better than I do can elaborate on how the Pats offense matches up against their style of defense.

 

[jmt57]

Some more articles from the Chicago Sun-Times:


Team short at LB after Pisa's surgery - Chicago Sun-Times

Linebacker Pisa Tinoisamoa underwent what coach Lovie Smith described as a “minor scope” on his sore right knee. How long he will be sidelined remains to be seen, which could be a concern since backup linebacker Nick Roach also left Sunday’s 24-20 victory against the Lions with a hip injury and did not return.

Rod Wilson filled in for Tinoisamoa and Roach against the Lions and might continue to do so if neither linebacker is available for Sunday’s game against the Patriots at Soldier Field. It’s also possible Brian Iwuh could get some playing time. Iwuh filled in capably when weak-side linebacker Lance Briggs missed the Seahawks game earlier this season with an ankle injury.

Lovie close to hitting return key - Chicago Sun-Times

One more win may not guarantee the Bears their first postseason berth in four years, but it will all but guarantee that coach Lovie Smith will return next season, according to league sources.

Holding the Bears’ coach to a playoffs-or-bust mandate is more problematic considering there likely will be quality teams unable to find a spot at the postseason buffet in the top-heavy NFC, where seven teams with seven or more wins are competing for five playoffs spots. Therefore, a 10-win season — playoffs or not — should bring Smith back for the final year of his contract.

Whether Smith is offered a contract extension likely will depend on how far the team advances in the playoffs, according to the league sources.

Players admitted during training camp that they felt pressure to perform for their coach, who was under intense pressure to win after the Bears posted a 23-25 record in the three seasons since their Super Bowl appearance following the 2006 season. With the team far exceeding expectations this season, the criticism of Smith has gone from a roar to a murmur.

And even the murmur has been mostly silenced since a 31-26 victory over the Eagles on Nov. 28.

Bears RBs praise run-and-fun offense - Chicago Sun-Times

In the two games before the bye — losses to the Seattle Seahawks and Washington Redskins at Soldier Field — Martz held back Forte and Taylor, calling only 30 runs in the two games. But during the Bears’ five-game winning streak since the bye, they’ve averaged 33 carries and more than 100 yards. That’s a marked difference, considering the Bears were held under 100 rushing yards in five of their first seven games.

But beyond that, Martz has emphasized their role, and they’re in a rhythm. Forte and Taylor only combined for 97 rushing yards in a 24-20 victory Sunday over the Detroit Lions, but they came up with timely plays that were key in the Bears’ victory.

None was bigger than a run in the second quarter. Forte lined up in his usual spot, but Taylor lined up in front of him in the I-formation. Cutler faked the handoff to Taylor, who burst right, then tossed the ball left to Forte, who breezed toward the left sideline and into the end zone.

“There are a lot of things we can do when we’re both in the game,” Forte said. “A lot of things we can do like that. Coach Mike knows the advantages of putting us in the game at the same time.

“We have different styles of running, and it suits the offense both ways. It kind of catches [defenses] off-balance.”

Both players, for instance, are versatile and solid-enough route runners that they can line up in the slot or even outside. In the fourth quarter, Forte lined up in the slot and went in motion, and he got behind a linebacker to catch a pass and gain 20 yards.

Two plays later, Taylor caught a pass for six yards, and the Bears scored three plays later.

Martz thinks small, gets big turnaround - Chicago Sun-Times

The request for change came from every area, including coach Lovie Smith and GM Jerry Angelo One source said even team president Ted Phillips talked to Martz about altering his scheme during the bye week. But the greatest impetus for change, according to a different source, was a heart-to-heart meeting between Martz and offensive line coach Mike Tice. Tice, the source said, told Martz exactly what the offensive line could and could not do and emphasized deep drops by quarterback Jay Cutler were only leading to disaster.

Whatever the inspiration, Martz effectively abandoned what he was doing through the first seven games. He changed to the point where one veteran scout who watched the Detroit game on Sunday said the Bears look as if they are running a completely different scheme. A cynic might wonder why it took half a season and two bad losses before the Bears got back to the kind of offense they played at the end of last year, or why it took near disaster to bring change.

Even Pats have flaws - Chicago Sun-Times

The Patriots are not without flaw. Their defense ranks 31st and features an inexperienced, finesse group that was manhandled earlier this year by the woeful Cleveland Browns.

Cleveland’s offensive line, led by left tackle Joe Thomas, left guard Eric Steinbach and center Alex Mack, aided by fullback Lawrence Vickers, helped the Browns attack Patriots star linebacker Jerod Mayo and free bruising 6-1, 240-pound running back Peyton Hillis to a 184-yard rushing day. The Browns put up 404 total yards, including 230 on the ground and dominated time of possession (38:08).

The Bears don’t have that kind of beef, but need to commit to the running game in order to keep Patriots quarterback Tom Brady off the field. It starts with the opening coin toss where the Jets deferred and allowed New England to build a 17-0 lead. The Bears deferred against Detroit and fell behind by a touchdown themselves.

Teams with faith in their defense will do that with the idea of getting a final possession of the opening half and the first possession of the second half, but against New England it’s important to play from a lead.

The team is unlikely to make any lineup changes while on a winning streak, but infatuated as they may be by rookie offensive tackle J’Marcus Webb, it’s probably time to move veteran Kevin Shaffer into the starting lineup. Webb has good feet and natural pass blocking ability, but when the Bears get to their evaluations at the end of the year will they be looking for an upgrade at right tackle? The way the offense is geared these day, a mauler like Shaffer is a better fit.

The Bears are unlikely to change up their defense to match New England, other than running more nickel with D.J. Moore, a good idea anyway since linebacker Pisa Tinoisamoa is down with a knee injury. If the team can win in the red zone this week, the victory will be theirs. Forcing field goals is the way to go.

 

[DaBruinz]

Here is what I see as the keys:

On offense:
Use the same or similar scheme/game plan as used against the Steelers. The Bears secondary is made better by their pass rush. The 2TE sets that they used against the Steelers allowed them to do, pretty much, whatever they wanted.

Having the 2 TEs will also help neutralize any bonus they get from Peppers..

On Defense:

Use the same scheme they used against Big Ben and Sanchez. Keep Cutler in the pocket. Force him to make bad throws by putting pressure on him and limiting his view to the inside routes.. That way, when he tries to go outside, McCourty/Sanders/ et al. will be there for the pick.