Week 14 at Bears pre-game analysis, keys, opinions

[kkpat]

It's funny that the writer linked above says the Patriots "Pats can't run the ball effectively". I've seen that from fans and writers of opposing teams on a weekly basis this year. I blame the misconception on fantasy football; the Patriots don't have any fantasy football studs other than Brady, so too many people fall into the trap of assuming everyone else is mediocre.

The guy who wrote that should have spent two minutes in research before hitting the submit button. The Patriots are averaging 4.2 yards per carry; slightly above average (13th) - while the Bears are a below average 23rd with 3.9 yards per carry. The Pats are 13th in the NFL with 111.5 rushing yards per game; the Bears are 22nd with 102.9. And the Patriots are second in the NFL with 15 rushing touchdowns; the Bears are 24th with only 7.

If the Pats "can't run the ball effectively", what does that say about the Bears' running game?



Similarly, the writer - just like we have seen every week for a while now - trots out the 'Pats don't have a deep threat since Moss was traded, that makes them easier to defend' line. I can completely understand people saying that when the trade first occurred - but you're still saying that now? That's just plain dumb.


Someone in the comment section - 99% of which is a waste of time - suggested that the Bears leave their linebackers in coverage because that is where they are best. I'll admit I have not watched the Bears much, but it seems to me from watching the Pats all season that is a matchup that has favored the Pats all year long; players like Hernandez and Woodhead will leave linebackers in the dust.

sshhhhhh....

Don't wake up the sleeping dogs...

These myths are all the product of watching the statistics and listening to dumb heads of ESPN. Our next door neighbor Sexy Rexy and his players bought these too. They are worst defense. They are 9-2 but scraped through. They have no running game. TB just throws all day. We beat up Brady and we are all set.

The superficial knowledge is time and again repeated and reinforced by mediots and players. I hope the Bears players and coaches think the same way. They will find out on Sunday how hard and tough our players are. After the MNF, it is difficult for us to stay under the radar.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

When did the "Tampa 2" become such a problem even when we had Moss? Seems that Moss never had any problem against Indy.

Maybe they think that having BU/LB as good cover LB's helps them out? Does this infer their personnel have the speed to defend the entire field?

Perhaps one of the Bear's visitors can provide some personnel groupings to handle certain situations.

 

[mgcolby]

It's funny that the writer linked above says the Patriots "Pats can't run the ball effectively". I've seen that from fans and writers of opposing teams on a weekly basis this year. I blame the misconception on fantasy football; the Patriots don't have any fantasy football studs other than Brady, so too many people fall into the trap of assuming everyone else is mediocre.

The guy who wrote that should have spent two minutes in research before hitting the submit button. The Patriots are averaging 4.2 yards per carry; slightly above average (13th) - while the Bears are a below average 23rd with 3.9 yards per carry. The Pats are 13th in the NFL with 111.5 rushing yards per game; the Bears are 22nd with 102.9. And the Patriots are second in the NFL with 15 rushing touchdowns; the Bears are 24th with only 7.

If the Pats "can't run the ball effectively", what does that say about the Bears' running game?



Similarly, the writer - just like we have seen every week for a while now - trots out the 'Pats don't have a deep threat since Moss was traded, that makes them easier to defend' line. I can completely understand people saying that when the trade first occurred - but you're still saying that now? That's just plain dumb.


Someone in the comment section - 99% of which is a waste of time - suggested that the Bears leave their linebackers in coverage because that is where they are best. I'll admit I have not watched the Bears much, but it seems to me from watching the Pats all season that is a matchup that has favored the Pats all year long; players like Hernandez and Woodhead will leave linebackers in the dust.

I almost started a thread on the "cold weather and how that favors the bears" misconception last night, but I was to tired. I keep hearing this repeated throughout the media, even locally. The Bears are not a good running team, primarily because they are not a good run blocking team. As some members have pointed out in other threads, the Bears have run the ball more over the past few weeks. But with limited success. Actually over the past three games they have run the ball 68 times (QB runs not included) for 328 or 4.8YPC which seems impressive, but 89 of those yards came on 2 carries. Remove the two big runs and they average 3.6 YPC.

They don't run well with any consistency. Forte is always a home run threat, but most of that is as a receiver out of the backfield. He isn't going to pound it in between the tackles, and if it snows they will need to do that. I read that Taylor missed practice yesterday with a knee injury, but I have not been able to find out if it is a serious injury or not. If he can't go or is limited, the Bears will have no shot at running the ball inside this week.

With that said our O-line can get down and pound the ball and Lawfirm is built to be a mudder. If it comes down to who can run the ball more effectively my money is on the Pats even against a good Bears defense.

Now about that Chicago run D, they are 2nd against the run in yards per game. But I don't really care how many yards they allow per game, its yards per carry that really matter. And in that category they are still a solid 5th (tied) with a 3.7 YPC. The issue is they have only played 3 teams with a solid running game (running back) Minny, NYG and Philly. They allowed Bradshaw to run for 129 yards at 5.6 YPC, McCoy only carried the ball 10 times, but he averaged 5.3 per. To their credit they did shut down Peterson. But they let Ryan Torrain run all over them 125 yards at a 6 yard per carry clip.

My point is when you dig in and really look at the Bears run defense, it doesn't look as impressive as it does at first glance.

 

[jmt57]

The Spread Offense vs The Cover 2 - DaBears.com

The Spread Offense vs The Cover 2

After watching the game last night I noticed that the Pats offense is unique to the NFL and looks difficult to stop.
I feel that the Cover 2 has a great shot at slowing down the dink and dunk passing attack.

-Tom Brady feasted on the blitz when the small throws became huge gains in one on one situations.

The Bears do not blitz and with the exception of the first half on Sunday they have tackled well and gang tackled.

-The Jets LB core got turned around and on half of the completions were facing away from Brady when the ball was completed.

The Bears LBs have played really well and they are always facing the line of scrimmage.

-The Patriots want to throw it 6-7 yards from the line of scrimmage and do not really have a deep threat.

The Bears in their Cover 2 have 5 guys standing in the 6-7 yards from scrimmage, which will hopefully cloud the throwing lanes.

I think that our defense has a real shot to slow down the Patriots.

After that the Bears fans there (this is the same site that most of the Bears fans here this week are from) go on with some interesting observations and opinions on what would be the best way for the Bears to defend against the Pats' offense.

 

[BradyManny]

The Spread Offense vs The Cover 2

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but...

Brady typically chews up Cover 2. Typically. I believe the Giants were a playing a lot of cover-2 when they knocked us off in the game that should not be mentioned.

It all comes down to pressure, I would think. In cover 2, if you can't get pressure, someone will get open - the seams are open, tight ends can do damage (see: the Pittsburgh game earlier this year). And the underneath stuff is there, but the YAC is limited by design.

But if you can pressure with 4, like the Giants did, then you can slow down Brady and this offense.

 

[jmt57]

Some columns from Chicago Tribune writers:


Former Patriot Troy Brown says Patriots will be ready for Chicago's cold - chicagotribune.com

Former Patriots wide receiver Troy Brown says the cold conditions at Gillette Stadium on Monday night will help prepare the Pats for Sunday's game at Soldier Field.

"It's a tough place to play in this kind of weather," Brown told us by phone from Foxboro, Mass., Monday before the Pats hosted the Jets. "It comes down to being a tough football team. It reminds me of old-school football."

Brown, who played 15 seasons (1993-2007) for the Patriots and is the franchise's all-time leader in receptions (557), sees the Bears receiving corps making progress.

"They do a pretty good job. I think (Devin) Hester is the guy who struggled the most in that new offense with Mike Martz there," he said. "I think they have some work to do to get on the same page. They are starting to look better as an offensive unit, and of course the defense always looks great."

Biggs: 10 thoughts looking ahead to Patriots - Chicago Breaking Sports

Hopefully, the Bears' defensive players will enjoy what they see when they watch the Patriots. Because when they report to Halas Hall on Wednesday to review the game film of the 24-20 win over the Lions, well, it isn't going to be pretty. Where do you start? The Lions rolled up 253 yards of offense in the first half, and it was a sloppy effort even before Detroit drove 91 yards on two plays to score in the final minute.

But on those two plays, there were a couple problems. First, Jahvid Best had a 45-yard run around the wide-open right side. Best went into the line and kind of disappeared before he emerged from the pack and went around the unmanned right side.

"I'll go ahead and say that was my fault," Tillman said. "I saw the running back go to my right. I thought he cut across so I was trying to pursue. I've got to be a smart enough player to stay outside to the edge of the defense."

There was a clear breakdown on the next snap when Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson was able to beat nickel cornerback D.J. Moore off the line of scrimmage and run free over the middle on his 46-yard touchdown. Safety Chris Harris took a bad angle. Johnson shooed Moore away like he was a gnat near the goal line.

But these two plays only highlight what was a sloppy effort defensively, across the board. Weak-side linebacker Lance Briggs gave up outside contain on the three-yard quarterback draw for a touchdown by Drew Stanton. The film review should offer plenty of teaching points.

Why the Patriots Don't Particularly Scare Me - Da' Bears Blog

If Tom Brady is given time in the pocket, he's lethal. The Jets have struggled all season long to generate pressure with four men and been forced into predictable blitz schemes. This made them susceptible to the screen and short routes all night. The emergence of Israel Idonije opposite Julius Peppers seems to have cured this issue for the Bears.

Middle linebacker Brian Urlacher says Chicago Bears can handle Tom Brady and New England Patriots - Chicago Tribune

"Remember, we have them at home … the same like Philly,'' Urlacher said, referring to the Bears' 31-26 triumph over the Michael Vick and the Eagles. "When we played Philly, everybody was saying they were the best, right? It's the same situation, and hopefully the same result.

"New England is the best team in the NFL, record-wise. But I feel like we're the best team, period. That's why I say record-wise. They have the best quarterback, numbers-wise. And everybody likes to go by numbers, right?''

"Right now, he's playing better than anybody,'' Urlacher said. "There's no doubt about that. Comparing with Peyton Manning, they're just different. Well, maybe they're not different because both run their offenses. Whatever they want to do, they do it. But Brady's doing it better right now.

"He doesn't make any mistakes with the football. You're not going to trick him. You just better stick to your roles.''

"Brady will take the dinks and dunks; he'll throw the check down,'' Urlacher said. "He'll keep drives alive, so we have to be aware of that.

"They lost Randy Moss, but they still have the guy who has the most catches in the NFL the last three or four years in Welker. They have tight ends who are pretty good. Danny Woodhead, he's not a household name but he's a fast running back. They've got BenJarvus Green-Ellis. It's not like they have nobody on offense. And, of course, having Tom Brady doesn't hurt.''

 

[sevengables_2207]

I live in the Chicago area and was just listening to "The Afternoon Saloon" on ESPN 1000. John Jurkovic said that the Bears have been playing a conservative cover 2 type defense during their winning streak, daring teams to execute 10 play, 80 yard drives. He then added that Brady is the ideal quarterback that can take advantage of this defensive strategy, and if the Bears want to slow down the Patriots offense, they need to change things up on defense, despite the fact that it has been very effective the past few weeks.

 

[jmt57]

I live in the Chicago area and was just listening to "The Afternoon Saloon" on ESPN 1000. John Jurkovic said that the Bears have been playing a conservative cover 2 type defense during their winning streak, daring teams to execute 10 play, 80 yard drives. He then added that Brady is the ideal quarterback that can take advantage of this defensive strategy, and if the Bears want to slow down the Patriots offense, they need to change things up on defense, despite the fact that it has been very effective the past few weeks.

Lovie Smith doesn't strike me as a guy that would make that type of dramatic change. His resume was built in Tampa Bay under Tony Dungy, a team that was conservative to a fault during those years. I don't follow the Bears closely, but I don't see anything that would lead me to believe Lovie Smith would make a radical change now.

 

[jmt57]

Sanders on Bears offense - Extra Points - Greg A. Bedard - Boston.com

Safety James Sanders is one of the smartest players on the Patriots' defense so I like hearing what he has to say about the upcoming opponent.

Here's Sanders answering questions from members of the media on a few of the Bears.

TE Greg Olsen: "Vertical threat, good speed, good receiving tight end. He’s a big guy, runs well. We’re going to have our hands full with him, he’s a great player and we get a lot of good work in practice. We’ve got some of the best tight ends, I feel, in the league and we get a good look each and every day and they prepare us as much as possible leading into the game.

On the importance of keeping QB Jay Cutler in the pocket: "It’s extremely important. He’s a very athletic guy. There’s times on film where he’s running away from (defensive backs) so we’re going to have to keep him in the pocket and limit his scramble plays. And when he does get out of the pocket, we’re going to cover the receivers because they do a good job of uncovering and getting open down the field."

On if receivers Devin Hester and Johnny Knox are among the fastest they've gone against: "Oh, definitely. They’re extremely fast, explosive big-play guys so we’ve got to contain those guys as well."

 

[jmt57]

Bedard's 3 keys to beating the Bears - Extra Points - Boston.com

1. Patriots must disguise coverages and confuse Bears QB Jay Cutler
- getting to Cutler is not a problem; Pats need to force turnovers
2. Stay balanced on offense
- work play-action passes to hold the linebackers
3. Contain game-breaker Devin Hester
- Hester can turn the game around with one play



It Is What It Is Pats prepping for the ‘ridiculous’ Devin Hester and the fastest offense in the NFL

In Week 6 against Seattle, Hester returned a punt 89 yards for a touchdown - his second TD on a punt return this season and 13th kick return TD in his career, tying Brian Mitchell for most in NFL history. Mitchell needed 223 games. Hester is playing in his 73rd NFL game this Sunday. Those don’t even include his legendary 108-yard return against the Giants at the Meadowlands in 2006 and the 92-yarder opening Super Bowl XLI.

These 2010 Bears, winners of five straight and owners of a 9-3 mark, are even more dangerous. They certainly have more speed than ever. Just ask the Patriots and their defensive backs.

Corners Devin McCourty and Kyle Arrington and safeties Jarrad Page, Patrick Chung and James Sanders will have their hands full - and their feet running - trying to keep up with Johnny Knox and Matt Forte. Knox and Forte have joined Hester as weapons for their new strong-armed quarterback Jay Cutler.

“Of course, Knox and Hester are home run hitters,” Pats coach Bill Belichick said. “Those guys can strike from anywhere in a hurry. They’ve got a lot of things that are a problem.”

Don’t forget Danieal Manning, who took over kick return duties when Hester became a wide receiver.

“Obviously they’ve got a strong return game with Hester and Manning,” Belichick said. “Those guys can score from anywhere; [they’re] extremely dangerous – really a problem in the return game.”

“They’re extremely fast, explosive big-play guys so we have to contain those guys,” Sanders said.

Belichick has been relying more and more on his big-play secondary, going with nickel, ‘Big Nickel’ and dime (6 DB sets) to produce big turnover numbers over a four-game winning streak. He’ll certainly be relying on them this week and safety Jarrad Page knows it.

“With Knox and Hester, they’re two of the fastest guys in the league and then Forte has shown his speed with plays over 60 yards, over 50 yards, he’s got a few of them,” Page said. “We definitely see that on film and took notice of it.”

Video: Brady vs. Bears' Cover-2 - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

In the NFL Live video above, Trey Wingo, Herm Edwards, Mark Schlereth and Kordell Stewart discuss and demonstrate what Tom Brady will see when the Patriots battle the Bears on Sunday.

 

[sevengables_2207]

Lovie Smith doesn't strike me as a guy that would make that type of dramatic change. His resume was built in Tampa Bay under Tony Dungy, a team that was conservative to a fault during those years. I don't follow the Bears closely, but I don't see anything that would lead me to believe Lovie Smith would make a radical change now.

I agree, he is extremely inflexible and it drives the die-hard Bears fans crazy. I know a few people out here who are upset that the 9 -3 record means they have to endure another season with Lovie at the helm. I can see the defense sticking with what has worked during their winning streak. The problem is, it plays right into the Patriots hands, because Brady will take what the defense gives him. It will be a death by a thousand slashes if the Bears stick with a conservative Tampa 2 against the Patriots offense. The Bears are going to rely on their front four to get pressure, and although they have Peppers playing well (Israel Idonije too), the pass rush generated by the front four has been inconsistent all year and the Patriots offensive line is humming right now.

 

[mgcolby]

Looks like snow is out of the forecast now. But they are calling for sub-freezing temps and 30-35 MPH winds.

 

[thechris]

If the Pats can handle the Bears front 4 then I think they win by double-digits.

 

[Metaphors]

Bears' Assets

1. Field Position
   
   The Bears typically start drives after kickoffs around the 35, which is outstanding. They also change field position well on punt exchanges. The Pats coverage teams likely won't win this game, but they could very well lose it.
   
   
2. Outside Runs
   
   The Bears can't run inside to save their lives, but can do damage if they can get outside. This is probably the singular game on the schedule where it is critical for the OLBs to set the edge well. If the Bears RBs are turned back inside, their ability to do damage is very limited.
   
   
3. Earl Bennett
   
   Knox, Hester and Olsen get all the press, but this is the guy the Pats need to worry about. Think Bess on the Fins. Cutler is extremely comfortable throwing to Bennett (must be a Vandy thing) and a comfortable Cutler makes fewer mistakes. Not saying he is a threat that needs double coverage...just don't forget about him.
   

Bears' Liabilities

1. Interior OL
   
   The OL in general is garbage but Kreutz is really showing his age, which has dragged down their whole interior line. If you can win inside against a skittish QB, it can mean a bad time for the offense. Would be nice if Pryor can come back into the rotation since this is a team that he should be able to do well against (assume they will continue to be careful with Wright's concussion).
   
   
2. Running at Peppers
   
   It is difficult to run on the Bears and they do a fine job establishing and holding the LOS. However, you can pick on Peppers if you can catch him heading upfield. If Light and Mankins work together well, BJGE and expecially Woodhead should be able to rip off a couple of big gainers in a game where ground yards will be hard to come by.
   
   
3. Inconsistency
   
   The Bears have played just well enough to win recently, but they really haven't excelled in any areas. They have just made big plays at key times. That is good quality (and one they share with the Pats defense), but I'm not sure that is enough against a team that doesn't seem to make those types of mistakes. Cutler will likely feel pressure to go downfield and that defense may get antsy and start blitzing. That is when their inconsistency will show and big plays (positive and negative) will be the result.
   

Bottom line...if the Pats are focused and play to a draw on ST, the Bears present positive matchups for them. The Bears do have playmakers in all 3 phases, so there is a danger in not bringing their A game. I don't see that happening and the Bears (like the Jets) get exposed as a team with a better record than their talent would suggest.

 

[Haley]

I am a little nervous about this:
Cold, Hard Football Facts.com: 2010 Defensive Passer Rating

We probably won't have too much off the run and Chicago is much, much better against the pass than most teams we've played. However with the Brady Bunch playing the way they've been playing, I still see us winning this in a narrow victory.

 

[weswelker#83]

I am not sure if this was posted.

NFL Video: Week 14: Patriots vs. Bears Preview
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-...8/Week-14-Patriots-vs-Bears-Preview#recommend

 

[Metaphors]

I am a little nervous about this:
Cold, Hard Football Facts.com: 2010 Defensive Passer Rating

We probably won't have too much off the run and Chicago is much, much better against the pass than most teams we've played. However with the Brady Bunch playing the way they've been playing, I still see us winning this in a narrow victory.

Cold Hard Football Facts generally need context. Here are the QBs they have gone against, with their overall rating and rank in parens:

Top
Vick 94.2 (105.7, #2)
Rodgers 92.5 (100.3, #4)
Romo 78.4 (94.9, #7)

Mediocre
Goober Jr. 79.2 (88.6, #17)
Fitzpatrick 67.4 (84.5, #19)

Garbage
Hill 38.9 (78.6, #22) - partial game
Hasselbeck 87.7 (76.9, #26)
McNabb 56.8 (75.2, #27)
Favre 44.5 (69.6, #29)
Clausen 29.7 (55.3, #31) - partial game

Non-Qualifiers
Stanton 102.4 (84.8)
Stafford 86.3 (91.3) - partial game
Thigpen 63.4 (63.7)
Moore 18.8 (55.6) - partial game

Or if you like FO passing offense ratings, the Bears have faced:

#6 PHI
#7 GB
#12 MIA
#14 NYG
#17 DAL
#20 DET (x2)
#23 WAS
#24 BUF
#26 SEA
#30 MIN
#31 CAR

That is 4 games against top-half passing offenses and 8 games against the bottom-half...2 top, 5 middle and 5 bottom.

So if you just take passing offenses comparable to the Pats, here is how they did:

Rodgers 34-45/316/1/1 with 0 sacks (pick was a Hail Mary)
Vick 29-44/333/2/1 with 4 sacks (pick was from the Bears 4 yd line)

Both close home wins for the Bears. The Pack missed a short FG and fumbled late with the score tied. The Eagles had 10 drives, 7 of which ended inside the Bears 30. Key turnovers. Settling for FGs in the red zone. If the Pats can avoid these things, I haven't seen anything to suggest they can't be very successful against the Bears defense.

 

[NYCPatsFan]

With Spikes out, I am a bit concerned.

 

[SuperPatsFan]

If Fletcher's playing for Spikes, this is a great opportunity for the kid. Hope he steps up.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

I am much more worried about this game then the NY game