Patriots 4.5 favorite vs Bengals

[Triumph]

Can we please stop with the 10 yard cushion bs.
Watch and try to understand what you are seeing.
We dont put corners man to man on WRs and give a 10 yard cushion. That is idiotic and a Pop Warner coach wouldnt do it.
If the corner has a deep 1/3 he isnt going to be covering the WR in the first 10 yards of the pattern.
We play a lot of zone. Please try to ask questions when you see something you don't understand instead of acting like something that makes absolutely no sense is happening.

Bwaaaahhhhh

Youre too funny.

Hobbs played off WRs and is gone. Wilhite is good at chasing WRs after the catch. Mcourty has shown signs of covering WRs close. Manning had his way the NE secondary last season to the point where BB knew his defense could not stop him. Watch the film instead of being a myopic Homer who puts every NE player on a pedestal.

 

[jah]

Your ******ed get off this forum if your going to be stupid

:ban?:

Also,

:welcome:

 

[Synovia]

I never said the bookies care whether the Patriots are good or not. Helloooooooooooooo.....
Of course bookies have to have knowledge of the sport and teams they're setting lines and taking bets on. It's pure folly to suggest they only take the public's temperature when setting lines. Based on your premise the Patriots should be an outright favorite in this game since the public perception is the Bengals are good and the Patriots are old and have no defense. Making the Patriots a clear favorite would draw lots of juice no?? And when the Patriots won the game all that juice that was placed on the Bengals would mean big big profits no?? Bottom line is it's silly to suggest bookies are indifferent to the actual strengths and weaknesses of teams.

Again, absolutely not.


Vegas sets the odds to that they have an equal amount of betters on either side. That way, there is no way they LOSE money. They make money off the juice, and never lose money off the actual wager.

Vegas absolutely does not want the public betting one way.

 

[Synovia]

The only odds that are based on how the public is placing their bets is at the tracks and the odds are determined by the american totalisator tote boards and computers.

Absolutely not.


The Spread on the patriots/bengals game started out as -6. Its gone to -4.5 because more people are betting on the bengals than the Pats.

 

[Triumph]

I agree. We will begin to see a change in that defensive philosophy this season.

The reason why Mcourty was drafted.

He will give up some plays no doubt. Thats all part of learning process, but I believe he will eventually be a damn good Corner.

Its Bulter Im concerned about.

 

[Garbanza]

Carson Palmer may look like the Carson Palmer of old with this defense and lack of pass rush. Still, Brady, two years removed from his injury, may look like Brady of 2007. Bengals defense is good...but Brady and co is better. It will be a shootout.

 

[Triumph]

Play action is the last thing you want to be doing when your OL sucks. Andy has already answered the 10 yard cushion myth.

The only thing I am worried about is Cedric Peerman, their new RB. He is lightning fast.

I disagree. The run sets up the pass and vice-versa.

The 10 yard cushion is a figure of speach of not covering downfield. Not getting off the field on 3rd down. Stuff NEP fans have seen plenty over the last few seasons. You know, when the opposing QB completes a pass and you ask yourself "How can he be that wide open?" Nobody ever suggested that NE purposely plays off that far or the rest of that drivel in his tangent.

Benson is no slouch either. I watched him albeit pre season and he ran hard and did not quit.

 

[Ring 6]

The 10 yard cushion is a figure of speach of not covering downfield. Not getting off the field on 3rd down. Stuff NEP fans have seen plenty over the last few seasons. You know, when the opposing QB completes a pass and you ask yourself "How can he be that wide open?" .

You must either not watch games and get your analysis from message board complainers or have an attnetion deficit.
Care to guess at where the Patriots D ranked last year in 3d down conversions, of B comp %? The year before? The last 10 years?
Teams convert 3rd downs against us, just like they do against everyone. But they convert them less against us than they do against most teams.
Amazing that you chose a statistic stength as the weakness to support your negative argument.

FACTS:
1) Patriots are good on 3rd down D and have been or years
2) Patriots are good at defensive completion % and have been for years
3) No matter how good the Patriots are any time a 3rd down is converted or a QB passes for the league average in a game there is a facition of fans who will whine that we cannot get off the field

 

[Ring 6]

The only odds that are based on how the public is placing their bets is at the tracks and the odds are determined by the american totalisator tote boards and computers.

Point spreads are, usually, determined by the bookies themselves, based on what they believe would be the final outcome of the game at hand.

A 4.5 point spread for a home team that has a solid home field record is very weak, but it is being determined by what happened to the Pats thus far, injuries, players not being able to play and what, allegedly, looks like a defense that is either too young, or in disaray.

Last seasons finish does not play a major part in determining point spread for a new season's games as teams are not the same as they were in the previous season.

Example would be, lets say that the Pats won last year's super bowl. They would probably be a big favorite this Sunday, at home.

Same situation this year except Brady, Moss and Welker are out with injuries.

In all probability, because they were at home, they might be a 1 point fave, or so, or the visiting team might be the favorite.

Last year's stats count very little in determining this year's point spreads. What the team looks like, including missing players, that will be onthe field this Sunday determines the major part of a point spread that is established by the bookies, themselves.

Odds, however, are determined by the nature of the bets that are being placed...

You keep posting this same silliness that a team that is rated a 1.5 point favorite over a division winning team on a neutral site is being called weak.

And you are totally wrong about the lines, they are SOLELY desgned to get equal money on both sides, and move based on the bets.

 

[Triumph]

You must either not watch games and get your analysis from message board complainers or have an attnetion deficit.
Care to guess at where the Patriots D ranked last year in 3d down conversions, of B comp %? The year before? The last 10 years?
Teams convert 3rd downs against us, just like they do against everyone. But they convert them less against us than they do against most teams.
Amazing that you chose a statistic stength as the weakness to support your negative argument.

FACTS:
1) Patriots are good on 3rd down D and have been or years
2) Patriots are good at defensive completion % and have been for years
3) No matter how good the Patriots are any time a 3rd down is converted or a QB passes for the league average in a game there is a facition of fans who will whine that we cannot get off the field

Do you ever tire of being wrong Coach Andy? And, yes its 2008, but you opened that can of worms not me.

After all, the Patriots’ defense only halted 55.6 percent of third-down plays last season, which tied them for 26th in the league.


Patriots' Defense Focused on Generating More Quarterback Pressure - New England Patriots - NESN.com

 

[Ring 6]

Do you ever tire of being wrong Coach Andy? And, yes its 2008, but you opened that can of worms not me.

After all, the Patriots’ defense only halted 55.6 percent of third-down plays last season, which tied them for 26th in the league.


Patriots' Defense Focused on Generating More Quarterback Pressure - New England Patriots - NESN.com

2009 t10
2008 t26
2007 4
2006 8
2005 5

Thats the 5 years since the last SB win
4 top 10s, 2 top 5s, and of course the one you decide to isolate

 

[Ring 6]

Do you ever tire of being wrong Coach Andy? And, yes its 2008, but you opened that can of worms not me.

After all, the Patriots’ defense only halted 55.6 percent of third-down plays last season, which tied them for 26th in the league.


Patriots' Defense Focused on Generating More Quarterback Pressure - New England Patriots - NESN.com

By the way, you left out the sentence before the one you quoted

In the end, though, it’s not just about one guy, one situation or one area of the field. The Patriots have to minimize their opponents’ yardage on first and second down to create a definite passing situation on third down.


which suggests the problem (as I believe really was the case) was that a lot of the3rd downs were converted on the ground, which contradicts your comments about the 3rd down PASS defense.

 

[mgcolby]

On the ground, it is. But through the air, I'm not so sure they're going to be able to torch us like everyone else thinks they will. That offensive line has SUCKED in the preseason and Palmer has been running for his life. For all of our problems on defense right now, I'm sure Bill will be able to scheme something up to get a good amount of pressure on Palmer from all angles. Their O-Line's inability to pass block this season should be the Bengals' undoing.

Its amazing what you learn about teams when you actually watch them, rather than just watch the big names they sign or read magazine reviews!

 

[wiggins!]

I feel like some people on this board need either a weekly/daily/yearly reminder as to how lines are set and the reason they're set the way they are.

Remember guys (and gals) when Vegas sets a line they're number 1 goal is to get "equal action". 50-percent of the bets on one team and 50 on the other. then they hope for the game to end on the number EXACTLY so they're the only one's who win.

New England's a 4/ 4.5 favorite because they think 50 percent of bettors like the Bengals plus the points (not even caring if cincy wins - i'm in this category). vegas also thinks there's 50 percent of bettors that think the pats will win by 4 plus.

In the case of underdogs, Vegas doesn't care if the dog wins (when just using point spreads and NOT money lines - different story all together).

Don't get all riled up that the Pats are just a 4-point favorite in this one!!!!! They were 14 point favorite's in the Super Bowl...and how'd that work out!

 

[Kontradiction]

Your ******ed get off this forum if your going to be stupid

Good post man welcome to the forum your gonna have a real good posting career here i can see it run on sentence

 

[Deus Irae]

Your ******ed get off this forum if your going to be stupid

Spelling, punctuation and grammar are generally not a big deal on message boards. However, if you're going to insult the intelligence of another person, it would behoove you to demonstrate that you understand the appropriate times to use "you're" and "your", and to understand when to use a period and begin a new sentence.

 

[BradyFTW!]

By the way, you left out the sentence before the one you quoted

In the end, though, it’s not just about one guy, one situation or one area of the field. The Patriots have to minimize their opponents’ yardage on first and second down to create a definite passing situation on third down.


which suggests the problem (as I believe really was the case) was that a lot of the3rd downs were converted on the ground, which contradicts your comments about the 3rd down PASS defense.

According to football outsiders, the Pats' defense was actually pretty good on third down, when you adjusted for yardage. The third down conversation rate was so bad because they were consistently in third-and-short.

 

[Wolfpack]

Yes indeed, in 6 more days the Patriots play their first regular season game against the Bengals. The paper today shows the Patriots 4.5 favorites.

So what does that mean, if anything?

Assuming that is the line and it remains constant, it means that half the gambling public believes the Patriots will win by more than 4.5 points and half the gambling public believe the Patriots will win by fewer than 4.5 point or lose outright.

 

[Patspsycho]

I disagree. The run sets up the pass and vice-versa.

The 10 yard cushion is a figure of speach of not covering downfield. Not getting off the field on 3rd down. Stuff NEP fans have seen plenty over the last few seasons. You know, when the opposing QB completes a pass and you ask yourself "How can he be that wide open?" Nobody ever suggested that NE purposely plays off that far or the rest of that drivel in his tangent.

Benson is no slouch either. I watched him albeit pre season and he ran hard and did not quit.

When your OL is collapsing, you are not going to have any time for play-action. If you go to play-action, you lose the hot read which is what you need to beat the rush or blitz. The way to kill play-action is to collapse the pocket before any play-action has a chance to develop.

The purpose of play-action is to force the defense to play honest, but they are not going to bother with that if the OL is a sieve, because that is smelling blood in the water.

And yes, the 10 yard cushion is a myth. Every time it happens, I don't ask "how can he be that wide open?" I ask "Who blew that assignment?" It's either that or poor zone communication.

 

[Patspsycho]

How do you, or anyone else, know that our O line sucks? They havent played a game yet. A reasonable question, I believe.

Also, there is no myth about the 10 yard cushion The Pats cornerbacks in recent years were weak links on thedefense and out of fear that they could not keep up with the receivers, they played with a cushion..... allegedly to give them more reaction time. It didn t work. With the newer, smarter, and more talented corners this year, albeit youthful, We will see fewer 10 yard cushions, IMO of course.

I do not believe we will see as much of that soft cushion any longer.

I wasn't talking about our OL.

The "10 yard cushion" was not a byproduct of skill or talent, it was a byproduct of inexperience, of not being able to identify the offense, and therefore what to check into, on defense, which is when the assignments are made.