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Patriots 4.5 favorite vs Bengals


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Wrong. Point spreads are established by the bookies depending on certain factors....player injuries, past poerformance, etc..

It is ODDS that are determined based on what the public believes and their pattern of betting, and ODDS on a given game change as the bedtting changes, and as other factors change....
OK, look everyone keeps telling you that you are wrong and you keep banging your head against the wall. Why does the point spread change if it isnt based on the bets being made?
And as far as the 10 yard cushion, go ahead and believe what you want, you have proven incapable of understanding or conversing reasonably.
Have a nice evening.
 
I wasn't talking about our OL.

The "10 yard cushion" was not a byproduct of skill or talent, it was a byproduct of inexperience, of not being able to identify the offense, and therefore what to check into, on defense, which is when the assignments are made.
Actually it was due to a zone defense where the corner had the deep 1/3 and guys like him think the corner has man coverage and plays 10 yards off.
 
Actually it was due to a zone defense where the corner had the deep 1/3 and guys like him think the corner has man coverage and plays 10 yards off.

That is what I meant. They keep checking into zone.
 
Actually, it may be hard to believe, but some people believe that it is you that is wrong.

The Pats corners sucked and recently they were forced to play a soft defense. WQithout going into all the X's and O's, which you appear to like, you wont see that as often this year with the change in personnel at the corners, which appear to be heading in the right directiion.

Everything, my friend, is not always black and white, and on occasion it is possible that you too could be wrong. Or, for that matter, I, and others who disagree with you, we could be wrong. We shall see.

In either case, we all seek the same end game, don't we?

You are the only one saying that pointspreads are arbitrarily chosen by bookies and not based on bet $$. There is no opinion there its a fact, and you happen to be on the wrong side of it.
There is no defense in the world where corners are lined up 10 yards off the receiver playing man. The offense against that defense would run slants and complete 100% of their passes. You are wrong because what you suggest happened is idiotic.
What you saw was a zone where the corner had deep zone (probably 1/3) and the 10 yard area was not his responsibiity. You dont give a 'cushion' when you are playing zone, because you are not assigned to the receiver that you thinkl a cushion is being given to.
Perhaps a good argument may be that you feel man on 3rd down is more effective or would be with these players, but you are all mixed up in what you say happened, both in execution and results.
I have no problem accepting when I am wrong. In fact I posted yesterday that I was wrong about a long held believe I have posted on this board for years. I wont say I an wrong when I am not though, no matter how many times you repeat yourself and refuse to accept the fact.s
 
By the way, you left out the sentence before the one you quoted

In the end, though, it’s not just about one guy, one situation or one area of the field. The Patriots have to minimize their opponents’ yardage on first and second down to create a definite passing situation on third down.


which suggests the problem (as I believe really was the case) was that a lot of the3rd downs were converted on the ground, which contradicts your comments about the 3rd down PASS defense.

Of course you do. Its a way out from being wrong.

Read the article.

Clearly, the Patriots were hindered last season by a thin secondary that couldn’t stay in coverage long enough to force quarterbacks to hold the ball for an extended period of time. That figures to be an improved area in 2009 with the additions of cornerbacks Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden.


Revisionist history will not change what actually happened.
 
Of course you do. Its a way out from being wrong.

Read the article.

Clearly, the Patriots were hindered last season by a thin secondary that couldn’t stay in coverage long enough to force quarterbacks to hold the ball for an extended period of time. That figures to be an improved area in 2009 with the additions of cornerbacks Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden.


Revisionist history will not change what actually happened.
It doesnt matter, that had nothing to do with my point which is they were top 10 4 of the last 5 years. If you want to prove that the 5th year was for the reason you are stating then go get the stats.
 
Why is it that if someone disagrees with you, you call them a complainer or someone with an attention deficit?
Its not because you disagree with me its because you are stating that something happened that did not. could not and will not. You either dont understand what you were seeing or were not paying attention very closely.


Not everyone is as astute as you seem to be, or at least think that you are. Apparently, from what little I have read thus far, you never are wrong.
Interestingly I just posted a reference to a post I made yesterday volunteering that I was wrong about something I have argued pretty forcefully. But lets not let facts get in the way of a nice accusation.


Unfortunately, most of us, if not all of us, are human, and sometimes we are right, sometimes we are wrong... I assume, at least I hope so, that you fall into that same category...human.
Not quite sure what this means? Are you now saying you were wrong and dont like that I figured it our before you? Or something else?

In either case, as I said, we all have the same end game in mind for the Patriots, even if we have differing opinions on how they can get there.
I dont understand the relevance to this discussion.

I, for one, believe that they will have a good season, in fact a very good season. What am I basing this on? Not much, just a gut feeling and the knowledge that most fans acquire by watching the games being played.
I think they will have a good season too, but my nature is to look for the best in the team and no doubt this year there are more challenges than others.

And, as I said, sometimes we are right, sometimes we are wrong, including me. I would assume that it includes you too, right?

Like I said, X's and O's are great for a blackboard. It's what's on the field that counts, and our corners have been eaten alive in recent seasons....
That is just not accurate. Being above the average in virtually every pass D stat virtually every season is not being eaten alive.
This is one of my major gripes with this board. Every facet of the team that is not perfect is overexxagerated as awful. Brady was sacked the 3rd fewest times, 2nd fewest by %, and we consistently have whining that the OL can't protect him. Brady will get him. But it will be less than normal. Our pass D has allowed completions and 3rd down conversions but they do so less than normal. Say you want it to be excellent and near perfection, dont call it awful when it isnt.




i
t's time for an entirely new defensive philosophy, and with the corners we now have, young as they may be, look for drastic changes in corner play on trhe WR's.
Why would BB change his philosophy? It works.

I really like our new, young, chomping at the bit secondary. Do you?
I have very high hopes for McCourty and Chung.
I am not sold on Butler, but he definitely won't suck.
I really hope we don't have to rely a lot on Wilhite, but Wheatley could be a good nickel.
Meriwhether is an excellent safety. Sanders is a good reserve, and we know nothing about Page.
 
I accept facts. What we have seen from the Pats pass defense the past couple of years has been a disaster. Regardless of why the corners have been playing 10 yards off the LOS is irelevant...the FACT is they have been doing it and have been chewed up and spit out.
No. thats exactly the point. They are aligned there because they are supposed to be aligned there when its a zone and they have deep responsibliities.
And again, our pass D has been at least above average, and sometimes excellent virtually every season BB has been here.
This is the whole point. When the corner is playing back because he has deep 1/3 on his side of the field and a 10 yard pass is completed, he wasn't covering that man or area of the field, but you are saying our conrer sucked because that pass was completed.


It may be why you say, it may not...
It is, but regardless of whether i am right it isnt even debatable that they aren't playing 10 yards off a guy they have man coverage on as you said.


in either case, our corners have made inexperienced and green quarterbacks look like the next coming of Joe Montana, etc.....
Blah, blah, blah. Thats just not true. Please list all of the inexperinced and green QBs who have beaten us in the last 10 years, and then list the ones who didnt. You will find over 90% success.
If you can't get the fact that part of a gameplan is to make the young QB beat us by taking away the runnng game and making him throw you just wont understand why we do what we do on defense.
Yes, young QBs will put up more passing yards against us than against most teams very often. But they will not beat us, because we are forcing them to do what they cannot sustain, and while they will have some success, they will rarely have enough to beat us.



and its been the 10 yard cushion,
There is no 10 yard cushion, you need to understand what you are seeing.


for whatever reason we are using it, that has been a major contributor to the success those quarterbacks have had against our pass defense. (Yes, lack of a pass rush does not help, either)
QBs by and large are less success than average against us.

Would you agree that it is time to tighten up the pass defense philosolphy, yes or no?
No. I am fine with the philosophy but hopeful the execution will improve.

BTW, I appreciate good two way, stimulating, conversation. Do you?

Also, I never use dthe word "arbitrarily" when saying that the bookies determine the point spread. I said that the point spread is established by the bolokies based on certainb factors.
You dont have to use the word to describe it. You just pretty much described arbitrary, which is not what they do, the line moves based on the bets, The line is set by predicting what # will produce equal money on both sides, then adjusted for the bets made. It has absolutely nothing to do with how the book things the game will turn out.
If the book thinks the Pats will destroy the Jets in week 2 but perceives that fans have the Jets severely overrated he will not set the line at the result he predicts, he will set it how he expects people to bet. This is a well known fact that should have been accepted pages ago.

I was making the distinction between how the point spread is determined and how odds are determined. They are to totally different entities
Wrong

Money being bet is the sole determining factor in odds.... it establishes the betting favorite, and the betting underdog(s)
Money being bet determines every line.


Many different factors go into deciding the point spread, home field advantage, injuries, weather, etc.... and those factors are what enablke to bookies to determine the point spread.... which can change daily....
wrong

Money being bet does not make the point spread change .. circumstances do.
wrong, in fact completely backwards
Money being bet DOES make the odds change.
Yes, and it changes the spread also.
The only goal of Vegas is to get equal money on each side. Way, way more money is bet with the spread than the money line. Both the spread and the money line move based on the bets.
The spread is the enticement or discouragement of making the bet.
If the underdog is getting most of the action, the spread drops (as does the money line) to entice betting on the favorite and even out the bets.
Vegas collects 10% off of every bet. Thats what they want. They are not in it to predict who is going to win and set lines that will get everyone to bet on the loser. They wouldnt have all of those nice hotels and casinos if they did that.
Again this is simply common knowledge. You need to ask someone you know who is knowledgeable in this area that you trust to explain it to you, because you really are just 100% wrong and you keep going on and on and on and are losing credibility on this board.
 
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Yes indeed, in 6 more days the Patriots play their first regular season game against the Bengals. The paper today shows the Patriots 4.5 favorites.

So what does that mean, if anything?

...

They opened at 5.5 or 6.0 depending on where you look. I usually think a three point spread for the Home team is Vegas calling it a tie on paper, and therefore a tossup. 4.5 points? Almost the same, with the oddsmakers waiting to see where the money goes in the next couple of days.
 
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