Is Connor Barwin now a 1st round pick?

[tanked_as_usual]

At what point have I listed any other prospect as my #1 OLB? No waffling there.

Sintim is my #1 SILB prospect and always has been; you'll recall we've disagreed over your consideration of Barwin as a SILB candidate - no waffling there.

The reason to "take" Sintim ahead of Barwin was based on "position of need" - ILB with Bruschi aging is the greater position of need. Moving Adalius back inside only works if Woods is ready to be the starter...and has been tendered or re-signed. Sintim is more NFL-ready than Barwin, that's never been in doubt and has to be weighed against the roster realities - any speculation leading up to the draft is based on trying to guess the roster and BB's pre-draft moves - lot's of latitude for exploring alternative scenerios.

Where is it written that a "binky" has to be drafted ahead of any other prospect? Ray Ventrone has been my "binky" since he was signed as a UDFA, but I'm not calling for him to start ahead of Welker.

And while we're counting coup, as far as patsfans' records show, you're a Johnny-come-lately to the Barwin watch:
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...13/171477-if-we-want-te-help.html#post1137766
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...02266-my-blueprint-next-year.html#post1232211

box never waffled on barwin...........he was just very enamored with the idea of sintim inside ..... box threw barwin out there as a pats prospect back in november I think, but at that time, how crazy can you get about someone?

I think there will be some cooling to barwin between now in the draft because of the potential of being a workout warrior in light of never playing the position he is being shoe-horned into.........one could argue that he's a bigger 'if' than gholston in terms of being able to play off the line....

look at it this way, the following teams will be 3-4 (or working towards it) next year along with where they are picking:

chiefs(3) looking at their roster, I would not be suprised if the DON'T go 3-4 since their best 3 defenders are dorsey, hali, and johnson....but say curry here
browns(5) gotta be secondary here although if rogers sounds like he wants out so depending on how this plays out could be raji
packers(9) I would not be suprised to see either a guy like selvie/brown/etc, but maybe even tyson jackson
broncos(12) the first thing they need to solve in going 3-4 is the nose.....raji will b e gone by this pick
chargers(16) they need to upgrade at ILB, but they may go RB
jets(17) tyson jackson? I can't see them in the OLB market with whats tied up in gholston and pace
pats(23) barwin is too early
dolphins(25) with crowder maybe gone, this may be the first landing spot for sintim......but they have roth and porter on the outside
steelers(32)woodley and harrison....nuff said....these guys always find someone, so don't see it
chiefs(34) if they don't get curry in round 1, a big possibility
browns(36) fat boy may pull the trigger on barwin here just to spite the pats
packers(41) with kampman and others, don''t see it unless they go in another direction in round 1
dolphins(44) if they get their ILB in round 1, then they go offense here.....if not, they will still be pursing an ILB

I just don't see barwin generating much interest from the 4-3 teams......so where he goes really depends on who gets what early on and then how things start falling into place.......I don't see him being at the top of anyones list prior to the pats picking at 47, but he could be a few peoples 2nd choice

 

[dryheat44]

box never waffled on barwin...........he was just very enamored with the idea of sintim inside ..... box threw barwin out there as a pats prospect back in november I think, but at that time, how crazy can you get about someone?

I think there will be some cooling to barwin between now in the draft because of the potential of being a workout warrior in light of never playing the position he is being shoe-horned into.........one could argue that he's a bigger 'if' than gholston in terms of being able to play off the line....

look at it this way, the following teams will be 3-4 (or working towards it) next year along with where they are picking:

chiefs(3) looking at their roster, I would not be suprised if the DON'T go 3-4 since their best 3 defenders are dorsey, hali, and johnson....but say curry here
browns(5) gotta be secondary here although if rogers sounds like he wants out so depending on how this plays out could be raji
packers(9) I would not be suprised to see either a guy like selvie/brown/etc, but maybe even tyson jackson
broncos(12) the first thing they need to solve in going 3-4 is the nose.....raji will b e gone by this pick
chargers(16) they need to upgrade at ILB, but they may go RB
jets(17) tyson jackson? I can't see them in the OLB market with whats tied up in gholston and pace
pats(23) barwin is too early
dolphins(25) with crowder maybe gone, this may be the first landing spot for sintim......but they have roth and porter on the outside
steelers(32)woodley and harrison....nuff said....these guys always find someone, so don't see it
chiefs(34) if they don't get curry in round 1, a big possibility
browns(36) fat boy may pull the trigger on barwin here just to spite the pats
packers(41) with kampman and others, don''t see it unless they go in another direction in round 1
dolphins(44) if they get their ILB in round 1, then they go offense here.....if not, they will still be pursing an ILB

I just don't see barwin generating much interest from the 4-3 teams......so where he goes really depends on who gets what early on and then how things start falling into place.......I don't see him being at the top of anyones list prior to the pats picking at 47, but he could be a few peoples 2nd choice

Then based on your analysis, the Patriots should trade down to the 27-29 range.

 

[patchick]

For those who are (reasonably enough) skeptical of Barwin as a 1st-round value, and who point to the likes of Vernon Gholston as fellow workout warriors, here's one by-the-numbers argument on why Barwin could be considered a rare 3-4 OLB prospect:

A. 6-4 256 4.66 21 40 1/2 10'08" 4.18 6.87
B. 6-4 251 4.56 27 38 1/2 10'02" 4.07 6.85
C. 6-3 266 4.65 37 35 1/2 10'05" 4.40 7.12

You'll notice that A & B look very similar, while C is more different -- much stronger, but much less quick-footed.

A = Connor Barwin
B = Demarcus Ware
C = Vernon Gholston

Sure, it's hard to find big, tall guys who run fast. But what really set Ware apart at the Combine was the quickness and agility he showed at that size. In fact, I reviewed the past seven years' worth of Combine numbers, and only three defensive linemen have run the 3-cone in under 6.90: Ware, David Pollack (the #17 overall pick before he suffered a career-ending injury as a rookie), and Barwin.

Couple that with great (albeit brief) production and a great attitude, and I think it's fair to consider Barwin 1st-round value. Not necessarily the best value at #23, but a reasonable option.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

For those who are (reasonably enough) skeptical of Barwin as a 1st-round value, and who point to the likes of Vernon Gholston as fellow workout warriors, here's one by-the-numbers argument on why Barwin could be considered a rare 3-4 OLB prospect:

A. 6-4 256 4.66 21 40 1/2 10'08" 4.18 6.87
B. 6-4 251 4.56 27 38 1/2 10'02" 4.07 6.85
C. 6-3 266 4.65 37 35 1/2 10'05" 4.40 7.12

You'll notice that A & B look very similar, while C is more different -- much stronger, but much less quick-footed.

A = Connor Barwin
B = Demarcus Ware
C = Vernon Gholston

Sure, it's hard to find big, tall guys who run fast. But what really set Ware apart at the Combine was the quickness and agility he showed at that size. In fact, I reviewed the past seven years' worth of Combine numbers, and only three defensive linemen have run the 3-cone in under 6.90: Ware, David Pollack (the #17 overall pick before he suffered a career-ending injury as a rookie), and Barwin.

Couple that with great (albeit brief) production and a great attitude, and I think it's fair to consider Barwin 1st-round value. Not necessarily the best value at #23, but a reasonable option.

It makes you wonder who that masked fellow in the funny cape and baggy tights declaiming Barwin to be a cross of Vrabel & Ware was?

 

[mayoclinic]

For those who are (reasonably enough) skeptical of Barwin as a 1st-round value, and who point to the likes of Vernon Gholston as fellow workout warriors, here's one by-the-numbers argument on why Barwin could be considered a rare 3-4 OLB prospect:

A. 6-4 256 4.66 21 40 1/2 10'08" 4.18 6.87
B. 6-4 251 4.56 27 38 1/2 10'02" 4.07 6.85
C. 6-3 266 4.65 37 35 1/2 10'05" 4.40 7.12

You'll notice that A & B look very similar, while C is more different -- much stronger, but much less quick-footed.

A = Connor Barwin
B = Demarcus Ware
C = Vernon Gholston

Sure, it's hard to find big, tall guys who run fast. But what really set Ware apart at the Combine was the quickness and agility he showed at that size. In fact, I reviewed the past seven years' worth of Combine numbers, and only three defensive linemen have run the 3-cone in under 6.90: Ware, David Pollack (the #17 overall pick before he suffered a career-ending injury as a rookie), and Barwin.

Couple that with great (albeit brief) production and a great attitude, and I think it's fair to consider Barwin 1st-round value. Not necessarily the best value at #23, but a reasonable option.

Nice analysis. Ware's agility numbers were unreal.

I never liked Gholston as a 3-4 OLB conversion for the Pats - too stiff, muscular and linear. I think Aaron Maybin is a much better conversion prospect than Gholston, but Barwin is clearly the most physically gifted prospect to come around in a while. There is also a lot of David Pollack in him in terms of intensity and motor.

Right now there are a bunch of prospects that I like for the Pats in the 20-50 range, and it is unclear exactly where they will settle out:

- OT William Beatty
- LB Connor Barwin
- CB/S Sean Smith
- S Louis Delmas
- CB Alphonso Smith

I'm not sure that any of these guys has separated himself from the others right now. Add in guys like Clint Sintim and Jarron Gilbert, and there are a lot of quality players in a crowded area of the draft.

I'm personally more pessimistic about Barwin since the combine than I have been at any time in the past 4 months, because I think your assessment of him as a late 1st round pick may end up being where he goes, and I don't see him being the best value for the Pats at #23. Not sure how we end up with him at this point.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Another thing to consider is that BB does take a long hard look at the physical freaks at the combine. Bethel Johnson, Ben Watson, and Mayo all put up very impressive numbers at the combine, and all ended up drafted by the Pats. I'm sure BB didn't JUST look at the numbers, but they were a factor in the draft decision process. Taking that into consideration, given his impressive combine numbers, I think Barwin has made his way onto the Pats draft board.

 

[patchick]

I never liked Gholston as a 3-4 OLB conversion for the Pats - too stiff, muscular and linear. I think Aaron Maybin is a much better conversion prospect than Gholston, but Barwin is clearly the most physically gifted prospect to come around in a while. There is also a lot of David Pollack in him in terms of intensity and motor.

Right now there are a bunch of prospects that I like for the Pats in the 20-50 range, and it is unclear exactly where they will settle out:

- OT William Beatty
- LB Connor Barwin
- CB/S Sean Smith
- S Louis Delmas
- CB Alphonso Smith

I'm not sure that any of these guys has separated himself from the others right now. Add in guys like Clint Sintim and Jarron Gilbert, and there are a lot of quality players in a crowded area of the draft.

That's a terrific and probably realistic list that makes me very optimistic about the #23 pick. (The two players who give me a little pause in round 1 based on attitude/work ethic are Beatty and S. Smith.) And I might toss in Britton as a RT.

 

[bakes781]

He's always been on the Pats draft board, but NOW he'll be on a dozen others. Remember it only takes ONE team to reach for a guy. And IMO there'll be a team in that 15-25 range that just might. I'm only saying I don't think it will be the Pats.

 

[mayoclinic]

He's always been on the Pats draft board, but NOW he'll be on a dozen others. Remember it only takes ONE team to reach for a guy. And IMO there'll be a team in that 15-25 range that just might. I'm only saying I don't think it will be the Pats.

That's exactly right, and why I'm more pessimistic about us actually getting Barwin than at any time in the past 4 months. Hopefully things will cool down a bit before the actual draft.

 

[VJCPatriot]

He's always been on the Pats draft board, but NOW he'll be on a dozen others. Remember it only takes ONE team to reach for a guy. And IMO there'll be a team in that 15-25 range that just might. I'm only saying I don't think it will be the Pats.

Have you already forgotten about Mayo? The Pats are not afraid to be seen as "reaching" for a player. They drafted Branch before anyone thought they would, the same with Bethel Johnson. Mayo was considered a 2nd round pick before the combine. And even after his impressive combine I felt he was more of a mid 1st guy than a top 10 guy, but the Pats locked in on their guy and went after him after a modest trade down from #6. They might have gotten Mayo at 15 but they weren't going to risk losing THEIR guy. If Barwin is indeed their guy, the "reach" argument is inapplicable to the way the Pats conduct their drafts.

 

[tanked_as_usual]

Then based on your analysis, the Patriots should trade down to the 27-29 range.

nope.....I believe he will be there at #47

 

[mayoclinic]

Have you already forgotten about Mayo? The Pats are not afraid to be seen as "reaching" for a player. They drafted Branch before anyone thought they would, the same with Bethel Johnson. Mayo was considered a 2nd round pick before the combine. And even after his impressive combine I felt he was more of a mid 1st guy than a top 10 guy, but the Pats locked in on their guy and went after him after a modest trade down from #6. They might have gotten Mayo at 15 but they weren't going to risk losing THEIR guy. If Barwin is indeed their guy, the "reach" argument is inapplicable to the way the Pats conduct their drafts.

That's undoubtedly true - if Barwin is "their guy" they will have no hesitation "reaching" for him.

The problem is that I can see 3-4 such "reaches" right now: Barwin and Delmas, possibly Alphonso and Sean Smith depending on how things sort out, maybe more. Which one do you "reach" for first? The secondary is undoubtedly a bigger area of need than OLB right now, and I could see the Pats having a very hard time choosing between Barwin and Delmas at 23.

My solution: trade Cassel to Detroit for #20 and #33. Then pick:

#20 OT Wiliam Beatty
#23 CB/S Sean Smith (or Alphonso Smith if you prefer)
#33 OLB Connor Barwin
#47 S Louis Delmas (possibly with a slight trade up)
#58 DE Jarron Gilbert
#89 TE James Casey (or the WR or your choice, or Devin Moore/Shonn Greene if we don't get Fred Taylor)
#97 OG Trevor Canfield
#122 DT Sammie Lee Hill

Then throw a party. Who needs FA? :singing:

 

[bakes781]

Hopefully things will cool down a bit before the actual draft.

I dunno after the poor showing by the CBs I think that only inflates Barwin's value even more.

Have you already forgotten about Mayo? The Pats are not afraid to be seen as "reaching" for a player. They drafted Branch before anyone thought they would, the same with Bethel Johnson. Mayo was considered a 2nd round pick before the combine. And even after his impressive combine I felt he was more of a mid 1st guy than a top 10 guy, but the Pats locked in on their guy and went after him after a modest trade down from #6. They might have gotten Mayo at 15 but they weren't going to risk losing THEIR guy. If Barwin is indeed their guy, the "reach" argument is inapplicable to the way the Pats conduct their drafts.

Nobody was talking about Mayo any higher than late 1st, even after the combine. Those were far more under the radar picks, which is traditionally BB's way. The only time I can remember most everyone accurately predicting a draft choice was Meriweather. Wilfork was obvious at the time only because he fell unexpectedly.

 

[dryheat44]

nope.....I believe he will be there at #47

You think he's going to fall past 6 more 3-4 teams after #23 until #47 comes around -- 4 of which belong to teams that are just transitioning to the 3-4? I think that's a bit optimistic.

 

[tanked_as_usual]

You think he's going to fall past 6 more 3-4 teams after #23 until #47 comes around -- 4 of which belong to teams that are just transitioning to the 3-4? I think that's a bit optimistic.

just because they're 3-4 teams doesn't mean they're looking for barwin.....most of them have much bigger fish to fry or will have already chosen brown, maybin, orakpo, selvie, etc.......many of those teams are much better set for OLB than NT(denver, miami) or ILB(miami) or secondary (cleveland, jets) or DE (jets, packers)....the chargers have one pick before #47....they ain't using it on barwin

I think once the combine dust settles, barwin will still be a mid/late 2nd rounder........what barwin did at the combine was not that much of a suprise

as prototypical as he sounds, the pats are going to base the top part of their draft around barwin, and they won't use the #23 on him, either

 

[zero]

just because they're 3-4 teams doesn't mean they're looking for barwin.....most of them have much bigger fish to fry or will have already chosen brown, maybin, orakpo, selvie, etc.......many of those teams are much better set for OLB than NT(denver, miami) or ILB(miami) or secondary (cleveland, jets) or DE (jets, packers)....the chargers have one pick before #47....they ain't using it on barwin

And how many NT or ILB are on this draft? (top #47)
NT:Raji sure,Brace maybe, Jerry no, Hood no
3-4 ILB: Curry sure, Maualuga sure, Laurinaitis no, Phillips no
By the way, Selvie is not avaiable this year
So it's no sure thing that Barwin will last till #47. I see BB trading up to get Barwin somewhere 28-36.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

That's exactly right, and why I'm more pessimistic about us actually getting Barwin than at any time in the past 4 months. Hopefully things will cool down a bit before the actual draft.

Your request is granted: USC has one of the last Pro Days.

 

[mayoclinic]

Your request is granted: USC has one of the last Pro Days.

Hooray! I'll be routing for Cushing, Matthews and Maualuga to go wild and put on a real show.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Okay, tanked is arguing that Barwin lasts to #47 or at least into the early second round.

1 Detroit Lions - this isn't too high for a premium edge rusher, but with one year at DE, Barwin is reasonably just a bit too risky here.
2 St. Louis Rams - ditto.
3 Kansas City Chiefs - Many draftniks had Everette Brown going here in their mocks, based on the Combine, what does Ev have that Barwin doesn't? If they stay 4-3, then Orakpo might be the better option...if you trust Texas DEs.
4 Seattle Seahawks - WR & OT is a greater need.
5 Cleveland Browns - They seriously need an edge rush, again; Brown? Barwin? Orakpo? Maybin? Is Barwin truly misplaced in that discussion?
6 Cincinnati Bengals - They are thinking about 3-4, they also need OT help.
7 Oakland Raiders - Speed sells, can you tell me they wouldn't consider Barwin after his Combine?
8 Jacksonville Jaguars - OT or an edge rush, tough call ... or not.
9 Green Bay Packers - Kampman and Barwin in a Caper's defense...
10 San Francisco 49ers - TBC is gone, would Barwin fit the Singletary template?
11 Buffalo Bills - They really need an edge rush.
12 Denver Broncos - Nolan's 3-4 wet dreams...
13 Washington Redskins - a second for Jason Taylor means what relative to a Barwin?
14 New Orleans Saints - need MLB.
15 Houston Texans - They are looking for an edge rush too.
16 San Diego Chargers - Merriman and Phillips, if one goes down the team melts down.
17 New York Jets - Rex wants speed and versatility.
18 Chicago Bears - Who knows what they want?
19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Is there any team out there more in need of speed?
20 Detroit Lions (from Dallas) - Yep, Barwin's a fit here.
21 Philadelphia Eagles - These bastitches keep taking BOR LBs.
22 Minnesota Vikings - Brad Childress
23 New England Patriots - Nah, they have TBC.
24 Atlanta Falcons - Abraham and Barwin...
25 Miami Dolphins - Parcells drafted Ware who had 27.5 sacks in four years at DE. Barwin has 11 sacks in one year. There was a recent Florida newspaper story talking about Parcells looking for another Ware - it listed Cody Brown and Connor Barwin as two Miami prospects for the role.
26 Baltimore Ravens - Do they need to rebuild at LB?
27 Indianapolis Colts - Freeney is aging.
28 Philadelphia Eagles (from Carolina) - bastitches.
29 New York Giants - Osi, Justin, and Barwin?
30 Tennessee Titans - WR first.
31 Arizona Cardinals - Sooo close, would another rusher help?
32 Pittsburgh Steelers - Teh Steelers would never draft a fast DE for LB...

I dunno tanked, if Barwin compares that favorably to Demarcus Ware, what OLB/DE needy or not so needy team doesn't take a closer look? I don't really see him going top 4, but all bets are off after that...damn patchick for her Ware fixation anyway.

 

[patchick]

damn patchick for her Ware fixation anyway.

he takes my mind off stewart whatshisname.