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Look at what we paid to resign Youk or Pedroia. Bargains.
Both players were multiple years away from Free agency, so they're not really relevant.
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Look at what Abreu made this past year, or what Ichiro makes.
Abreu just signed a 10M a year deal, OPS 100 points below Bay, and plays even worse defense, so I'm not sure hes a good comparison.
Ichiro OPS 200 points below Bay, and makes $20M a year. He is a MUCH better defender though. Again, neither one of these guys point to Bay not getting lots of money.
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If Bay wants more than 15M+ per year, then he can see if the Yankees will pay him because no one else will.
The red sox wont, but the yankees, mets, and a handful of other teams probably will.
Both players were multiple years away from Free agency, so they're not really relevant.
Abreu just signed a 10M a year deal, OPS 100 points below Bay, and plays even worse defense, so I'm not sure hes a good comparison.
Ichiro OPS 200 points below Bay, and makes $20M a year. He is a MUCH better defender though. Again, neither one of these guys point to Bay not getting lots of money.
The red sox wont, but the yankees, mets, and a handful of other teams probably will.
What you said. I'm shocked that MMav had no clue what he was talking about. Just shocked.
Bay is going to get paid. Economy or not, the premier players on the market will get a fat deal. Bay shouldn't get $100 million, but who thought AJ Burnett, or Derek Lowe would get the monster deals they recieved? GRanted, those guys are pitchers, but the top guy usually get their money, and especially so when it's a sellers market like it is this year. There are few high end names out there. Bay should easily be in the 4 years, $60 million range. The question is, will someone, or a couple of teams, want him so badly that they'll offer more? I really think the SF Giants could be a player for Bay. Seattle too, since they are close to his home, and a bat is something they need. Look for one of those west coast teams to go after him. My guess is he gets a JD Drew type deal. Something in the 5 year, $70-75 million range. At least 4 years though. I'd be more inclined to sign Bay than Holliday, simply because of how bad his time in the AL was. Obviously NL teams might feel more comfortable with him.
The Yankees won't be players for any significany free agents this year. They have something like $160+ million allocated to 12 players. They 2009 free agent signing was the 2008 signing of Mark Textiera. I think they'll look to bring back a some mix from the MAtsui/Damon/Nady trio, and see what happens next year. Short term commitment and money, while Austin Jackson has a full season at AAA to show if he's ready. If he isn't, Carl Crawford will be the guy they'll likely go after in 2010.
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"A theory that explains everything, explains nothing"
Bay is worth about $13M a year. Just a little less than Drew, because of his absolutely horrendous defense.
Using JD Drew is a laughably bad benchmark. Drew is not even close to being worth $14M a year. This guy is a #7 hitter who you can't count on to drive in runs if he was higher up in the batting order. He has never hit 70 RBI since he's been here.
Put JD Drew on the open market right now, the guy would be lucky to get 9M. The only reason he's paid 14M now is he has the best negotiating agent in baseball.
If you're trying to say that Jason Bay is less valuable than JD Drew, then you're saying Bay isn't even worth 10M.