Synovia

Past performance needs to be adjusted for circumstance, and normal performance for a 34 year old DH built like Papi is decline. Papi is past his prime, and any projection should contain that.

Youkilis's past, OTOH, shows that hes still improving, and just entering his prime.


Bay should be great though.

maverick4

I'm very excited for this year's team. Lots of great young pitching all the way across the board, and the core of the team is now the young guys.

I still think Ortiz has a great year left in him though, his wrist is healed now and he is hitting the crap out of the ball in pre-season.

TomBrady'sGoat

I just want to point out that Youk's 2008 could very easily be a repeat of Trot Nixon's 2003. Both players, in their age 29 season, had a career year well above past performance. Nixon never again reached that level of production, and the assumption that Youk definitely will seems misguided.

I agree that age has possibly removed Ortiz from the equation, but I feel much more comfortable assuming Bay will have another great season due to his past performance. Bay's past tells us that he can sustain excellence.

Youk's one season of greatness could be the beginning of a great 3-year stretch or it could be an age 29 career year.

He's 29. He entered his prime a couple years ago. He just realized his potential last year, likely due to his late start in becoming a full-time player at 27.

maverick4

The Trot Nixon example is a great point. I hope Youk doesn't regress, but you never know based on 1 great year.

WhiskeyBreath

Trot Nixon's production fell off the table because he had back problems.

__________________
“I'm a simple man. All I want is enough sleep for two normal men, enough whiskey for three, and enough women for four.”

Synovia

I'm not saying Youk definitely will, I'm saying the chances of him hitting .300/.380/.550 (he hit 310/390/570 last year) are greater than the chances of Ortiz hitting the same. David Ortiz is the exact type of build that declines rapidly (big, slow, most value based on power), and he missed time due to multiple injuries last year.

Ortiz's potential production is higher than Youk's, but the chance that he hits it is much much lower.



As to entering his prime a while ago, SABR believes the prime age is 28.5....IE right where Youk is. Power tends to develop right around that age, not earlier.

TomBrady'sGoat

but he didn't fall off a table. he went back to where he was before his career year, before eventually falling off in 2006. Injuries kept him off the field a bit in '04 and '05 but didn't noticably affect his play when he was healthy. Nixon followed a fairly normal career path.

I agree with you on Ortiz, which is why I went away from him and focused on Bay as someone who can be expected to be great due to consistant past greatness (something which Youk doesn't have).

Youk is 30. He was just as close to his prime at 27 as he is now. And since you said he was entering his prime (which happens around 27) I felt the correction was necessary. If you figure a player's prime is 27-30 he is actually at the end of it.

I think (and hope) Youk can have another outstanding year, I just won't be surprised if he drops off a bit. And expecting him to improve (your words - "he's still improving") seems a bit farfetched.

WhiskeyBreath

That's incorrect.

__________________
“I'm a simple man. All I want is enough sleep for two normal men, enough whiskey for three, and enough women for four.”

TomBrady'sGoat

care to elaborate?

Year - OPS+

1999 - 107
2000 - 106
2001 - 128
2002 - 110
2003 - 149
2004 - 123 (only 167 PAs in 48 games)
2005 - 109
2006 - 96

That supports my statement pretty well. Did you think I didn't bother to look up his stats before I said that?

WhiskeyBreath

Nixon put up 3 pretty good seasons just as he was entering his prime. He herniated a disk the next year and never was the same type of hitter again. How the hell is that not falling off the table because of a back injury?

__________________
“I'm a simple man. All I want is enough sleep for two normal men, enough whiskey for three, and enough women for four.”