Ice_Ice_Brady

I really would like an explanation for this, considering:

Last six games, dating back to 2007:

12- Ravens 31, Patriots 30
11*- Patriots 23, Ravens 20
10- Patriots 23, Ravens 20 (OT)
09*- Ravens 33, Patriots 14
09- Patriots 27, Ravens 21
07- Patriots 27, Ravens 24

Even with a bunch of powerhouse offenses, including the '07 team, the Patriots have only once beat the Ravens by more than a field goal, and that was still by less than a touchdown.

-In case anyone hasn't heard yet, Rob Gronkowski is out. Not that the Pats can't play effective football and win, but it seems like a near fantasy that they are going to score 30+ and likewise hold the Ravens to under 20, with the way the Ravens have been playing. They can do this if they get a lot of breaks and turnovers, but that should not be factored into a point spread.

I do like the Patriots chances to win, and I wouldn't be shocked if they covered, but from an analytical side, looking at "if you played this game 100 times..." I can't find an explanation for a spread this large.

Can anyone figure this out?

MossWelkowski

Patriots are due for blowout against them

The_Riddler

I agree, I don't bet, but if I did, the Ravens and 9.5 looks like almost guaranteed money. I do think the Pats will eek one out, but man, this game is going to be really tight.

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Hey Rex have you met our new Tightends? Say Hi to Aaron and Gronk !

Wax Frog

I'd like to see the Ravens defensive rankings for those years (too lazy to look up) but maybe age and wear are expected to finally catch up with them?

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Brady_to_Moss

i would bet ravens at that spread...9.5 is wayyy too high

aluminum seats

It's an excellent question, one that I haven't really seen explained in the few places i poked around. Also, as far as I know, the line hasn't moved.

The history of the rivalry would suggest no more than maybe a 6 point line, tops. Gronk is out. The Ravens are healthier than they were. Your take on it--that the Pats certainly COULD cover, but the bet should be on the Ravens, seems obvious. It objectively makes no sense.

Another way to look at it is that the line is an extremely positive sign for the Pats.

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MossWelkowski

Why don't you put a grand in it then?

patsfaninpa

Vegas is begging people to bet on the Ravens. It's usually better to run the other way when that's the case. Because they think there's a chance NE blows them out.

dannydyn

3 straight games for the Ravens, and one after they had to play a double-overtime on the road, is sub-temps, at high altitude. This can't do good to an aging defense. As a matter of fact, I'm surprised none of their aging players ended up being carted off the field.

The Ray Lewis retirement speech and dance will carry them two plays into the game. After that, it's all they got left. No one knows what physical condition they are in (respiratory wise) after playing at those temps. Half their squad could be down with a serious cold or other respiratory problems for all we know. They may not miss practice for that, but trying to run around huffing and puffing with a stuffed nose, shortness of breath, sore throat, and difficulty breathing, can't be good either.

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Nunchucks

This is by far the weakest Ravens defense we have ever seen and the Ravens offense lives and dies by the deep ball.

This is the best Patriots defense we have seen in a number of years and the offense is extremely versatile and incorporates one of the top running games in the league.

So, you guys tell me...why is the spread so high?

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