Ice_Ice_Brady

For everyone who is down on the Patriots, let's look at an incredible accomplishment. Sure, this is regular season, and we want championships, but that doesn't diminish the excellence of this team. Since 2003, the Patriots have won 14 or more games four times. In years when Brady was healthy, that is four of the last seven seasons.

To put in perspective how hard it is, I've put some data below. The league went into a 16-game format in 1978. How many teams have won 14 or more games? Well, 18 franchises have never done it. Only two franchises have done it more than twice. It has only been done 22 times.

Winning 14+ games during the regular season

4 (2 teams)- New England, San Francisco

2 (2 teams)- Indianapolis, Washington

1 (10 teams)- Atlanta, Chicago, Denver, Jacksonville, Miami (14-0), Minnesota, NY Giants, Pittsburgh, San Diego, St. Louis

0 (18 teams)- Arizona, Baltimore, Buffalo, Carolina, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Green Bay, Houston, Tennessee, Kansas City, New Orleans, NY Jets, Oakland, Philadelphia, Seattle, Tampa Bay

If 32 football teams each start the season with a chance to win 14+ games, over 32 seasons, that's 1024 attempts (some teams were expansion, so the numbers are tad off.) The feat has been accomplished 22 times, which gives a 2% chance of success.

The Montana-Young 49ers accomplished this feat four times, stretching over nine seasons. However, no head coach or quarterback have accomplished it as many times as Belichick or Brady.

So next time you get mad that went 14-2 (or 16-0!!!) and didn't win the Super Bowl, just remember how difficult it is to achieve that record to begin with. In case you are still bitter and just have to know, the 22 teams that won at least 14 games won the Super Bowl 11 times. Dominating teams get you a coin flip to win it all; better odds than the rest of the field, but still no better chance to win than to "choke." And, as what may be a sign of the salary cap, the last six teams to win 14 games (Pats '10 and '07, Chargers '06, Colts '09 and '05, Steelers '04- although the '04 Pats also won 14), have all failed to win a Super Bowl.

ausbacker

Nice piece of research Ice_Ice_Brady. Let's hope the Patriots can continue their stellar recent play and cap it off with a Lombardi for good measure .

randomk1

How many of those teams won the championship? What's the % of winning the SB if you achieve a 14 win season?

ivanvamp

Well, the OP said this in his last paragraph:

"So next time you get mad that went 14-2 (or 16-0!!!) and didn't win the Super Bowl, just remember how difficult it is to achieve that record to begin with. In case you are still bitter and just have to know, the 22 teams that won at least 14 games won the Super Bowl 11 times."

So let's see...

22 teams have won 14+ games
11 of those teams have won the SB title

That means that 11/22 = 1/2, or 50%.

Math is fun.

ivanvamp

Great post, Ice. It's what I've said for a long time - that winning a championship in any sport, but especially in a one-and-done sport like the NFL, is *extremely* difficult. Any one championship is special. That we've experienced it three times with this coach and QB is an unbelievable thing. All a franchise can do is put out a quality product as often as possible and hope to win it all once in a while. This team has done that and more - it's provided Patriots' fans with an incredible amount of enjoyment...much more so than any other franchise since BB arrived.

Potstickas

Not that I don't appreciate the difficulty of winning 13+ games, but when you go one and done in the playoffs going in with that record, the season is a disappointment.

The ultimate goal is to go deep into the playoffs and win superbowls. I don't want to evaluate my team based on regular season accomplishment only. Next thing I know I will start sounding like colts fans when they compare pats vs colts or Brady vs manning.

MoLewisrocks

It's all about perspective and having a sound, rational one. Somewhere between Colt fans and Pats fans lies the truth...

As an example, a fan over on Coltfreaks just knocked himself out doing an analysis of the greatest QB's in the league, past and present. What he decided to base his formula on was subjectively selected stats. He decided among other things to not use rookie stats because Peyton's sucked and would have knocked him off of a couple of his all important comparative listings... He decided to use QB's with less than 50 starts because that (along with a mathmatical error here and there) bumped Brady off of a couple of the lists. He relied heavily on total yards because those are Manning's forte. He used sacks as a criteria because between OL talent and official aversion to calling holding against the Colts OL Manning was untouchable for a while...

He also claims he left off seasons he felt were outliers for players like Favre and Marino and Montana just because he felt like it...

And of course he ignored post season statistics altogether...inclusion of which would have knocked most of the non Manning competition not named Brady off his lists altogether...

LuthierJr

Great post. I, for one, am very appreciative of the past decade. You don't need to think back much further than that see all the really bad years when this team struggled horribly.

Then there are the fans who whine and cry about what they think this team needs and don't put faith in the team and coaches who pulled us out of the years when we won less than 6 games. People need to really stop being such whiny brats and enjoy the tremendous success this team has had, and most likely will continue to have.

Have some faith in the guys who know a heck of a lot more than you or I and that they are doing what is best for this team.

Mountain_Commando

Great post IIB. And that 14-2 achievement is even sweeter when you consider:

- everyone and their grandma gave this team a 10-6 prediction at best
- when Moss left, 8-8 was looking difficult
- Warren, Bodden, Faulk out. Mankins out half the season
- Round 1 pick is an unheard of CB from Rutgers
- Maroney traded, last years 5th string RB becomes starter
- a VERY tough schedule

And how it turned out:
- Brady had his second best year, good enough for the only unanimous MVP award ever
- Branch comes back, fits in seamlessly. Moss who?
- D-mac becomes a shutdown corner in his rookie year. Bodden is barely missed
- Law firm burns the field for 1k yards
- this thing called Woodhead comes out of nowhere and leaves everyone scratching their heads, particularly the Jests
- Gronk and Hernandez become the best TE duo of any team, in their rookie seasons
- Our young D goes from the worst ranked in the league to top ranked in turnovers and respectably ranked in ppg
- Patriots O is feared again, with blowouts on the order of 45-3, 38-7, 34-3, 45-24

What a completely ass kicking season. Yes, it ended in a crappy way...4th consecutive year. But the law of averages gotta catch up eventually.

PATS4EVA

It only matters how u end the season (Playoffs).