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Just wanted to take a look at the playoff games with respect to the "Keys to beating NE". Scoring on a 0-1 scale (0=failed, 0.5=even, 1=success).
1. Jax allowed 4 TD's in 6 red zone trips. Not good. Only a botched FG and a Welker drop prevented this game from being 38-20. San Diego didn't fare any better, 3 TD's in 4 trips, but did force a turnover to keep themselves in the game.
Jax: 0
SD: 0
2. Jax was good in the first half, 2/2; second half, 0/2. San Diego failed miserably, 0/4.
Jax: 0.5
SD: 0
3. Both teams were non-existent on offense in the 4th quarter. Jax had 3 points but also a pick. San Diego ran 4 plays in the 4th.
Jax: 0
SD: 0
4. NE missed a FG, gave up a big 4th-down conversion against Jax. SD picked Brady off 3 times, but never did anything big on special teams or offensively.
Jax: 0.5
SD: 0.5
So if victory depends on success in all 4 areas (i.e. a score of 4.0), the Jags only scored a 1.0 while San Diego had a 0.5. Here's how I'd score the Giants' performance in Week 17:
1. 0.5 (did well in 1st, lousy in 2nd)
2. 1.0 (did well all game)
3. 0.0 (the pick killed them)
4. 0.5 (hit big plays in the 1st half, quiet in the 2nd)
So the Giants had a 2.0, and the Pats pulled away after a scare.
Here are the conclusions I can draw from our last 3 games:
The Pats will not be held out of the end zone all game, an opponent MUST score at least 4 TD's to win.
If you want to beat the Pats, you better do well offensively in the 4th.
The Pats do make mistakes, just not over the course of the whole game.
The Pats' red zone D is much better than it has been all year.
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Here are the conclusions I can draw from our last 3 games:
The Pats will not be held out of the end zone all game, an opponent MUST score at least 4 TD's to win.
If you want to beat the Pats, you better do well offensively in the 4th.
The Pats do make mistakes, just not over the course of the whole game.
The Pats' red zone D is much better than it has been all year.
Interesting analysis. My takes on your updated conclusions:
1. Agreed. I find it very hard to believe that the Giants will hold the Patriots under 30 given the week off and the conditions, etc, unless Brady's ankle is more serious than we think. If the Giants want to win, they need to put up AT LEAST 4 TDs.
2. This would seem to be a given, but we've seen too many teams late in the season go into what I like to call the "OMG we're beating (or hanging tough with) the Patriots! shell" The ultimate example, of course, is Norv calling that punt on 4th-and-10 trailing by 9 in Pats territory in the fourth quarter. Seems to me that this strategy is hinged on the Patriots somehow coughing up the win, which is not a winning strategy. Of course, it's happened, and no one needs me to recount the instances, but if I were the Giants I wouldn't be hanging my SB hopes on it. Really, you'd like to say "be aggressive in the 4th quarter", but then look what happened during the Eagles game (and the first Giants game) with the late turnovers. So I guess you need to be "aggressive AND smart in the 4th quarter." Exactly two quarterbacks can do that consistently - Brady and Manning (not this Manning, thankfully).
3. I think what you're trying to say here is that while the Pats commit turnovers, they aren't the game-changers you might see from other teams. I think that this is probably more a product of the results of the game, because I'm telling you right now that the three Brady picks in the AFCCG seemed pretty significant at the time. In hindsight, sure, they didn't spell disaster, but it didn't make them any less big at the time. One thing to be glad about - the Patriots almost never fumble.
4. Well, it would certainly have been hard for it to be much worse than it was early in the year. But I agree, if we played RZ defense all year like we did in the SD game, the "greatest team ever" debate would be over. That said, in the Jax game Garrard made a couple of red zone TD tosses that made my stomach curdle. Thankfully, I think Eli is more Rivers than Garrard (and I don't mean that in a good way).
Last edited by Watson's IQ; 01-28-2008 at 08:50 AM..
Interesting analysis. My takes on your updated conclusions:
.....
2. This would seem to be a given, but we've seen too many teams late in the season go into what I like to call the "OMG we're beating (or hanging tough with) the Patriots! shell" .....
3. .... I think that this is probably more a product of the results of the game, because I'm telling you right now that the three Brady picks in the AFCCG seemed pretty significant at the time. .....
.....
2. I call it the same thing, teams become "self-aware" of what they're doing and then blow it.
3. Maybe it was because SD wasn't really threatening on offense, I saw those picks as annoying, like "oh come on already, let's finish this thing". Worst case, even if SD had found the end zone after one of those picks, NE would have been down 7 at most.
The thing that scares me the most is fumbling, or lack thereof. It hasn't been a problem ALL season, and I guarantee if the Pats somehow lose Sunday, they will have at least 3 fumbles.
You know what this reminds me of? A scene in a movie where a guy's running from a monster, only there's a locked door, and he has the bigass key ring, and he keeps trying key after key, and none of them work, and then he finds the right key, but before he can use it...BAM! Headless.
You know what this reminds me of? A scene in a movie where a guy's running from a monster, only there's a locked door, and he has the bigass key ring, and he keeps trying key after key, and none of them work, and then he finds the right key, but before he can use it...BAM! Headless.
In all seriousness, that's just about the most perfect analogy for trying to beat the 2007 Patriots that I've heard all year. Hope you don't mind if I steal that one.
In all seriousness, that's just about the most perfect analogy for trying to beat the 2007 Patriots that I've heard all year. Hope you don't mind if I steal that one.
Patience. A lot of patience. It make take years, but eventually the tide may turn.
Quote:
Originally Posted by richpats
If I were an opposing coach, here's what I'd focus on if I wanted to beat NE:
1. Be patient on defense - In four or five years, Seymour, Wifork, Warren and Green will all be gone.
2. Be patient on offense - Brady is thirty. Surely in 10-12 years you stand a chance of beating him.
3. Be patient in the 4th - If you aren't up by at least 30 points in the fourth, just give up this game as lost. Be patient. One of these years you'll be up so high in the fourth that the Pats won't bed able to come back and beat you.
4. Be patient that NE will make a mistake - just realize they will beat you anyway because you will be making three mistakes to their one
Last edited by spacecrime; 01-28-2008 at 10:07 AM..
You know what this reminds me of? A scene in a movie where a guy's running from a monster, only there's a locked door, and he has the bigass key ring, and he keeps trying key after key, and none of them work, and then he finds the right key, but before he can use it...BAM! Headless.
My take would be opening the door, and then discovering the monster on the other side then BAM! Headless.
Patience is NOT how you beat the Patriots. The Giants only hope is for Brady to aggrivate his injuries. They gotta do a whole lot of praying and hoping.
If that doesn't happen, they would have to get aggresive and kidnap Brady. Or maybe just run him over in the parking lot.
__________________
This is the year. We put our failures in the past, it's a new year, a new defense. It's time to prove to the league that the Patriots are back and aren't going anywhere and they will be the last ones standing in Feb.
Update: Well that didn't work out as I had planned. Next year baby, next year 19-0 we go. Next year.
Last edited by Satchboogie3; 01-28-2008 at 10:17 AM..
Patience is how you try to keep the game close and claim a moral victory.
To win you need to have 3 distinct gameplans...one for the first half, one for the 3rd quarter and one for the 4th quarter.
In the first half, you need plays that are different that what you would normally do. You also need to involve different players than just your stars.
In the 3rd quarter, you need to play physical. Big blocks and big hits. Can't let the game turn into a track meet.
In the 4th quarter, you tell your kicker and punter that their services will no longer be required (at least until the 2 minute warning). Call plays with the intention that you are using 4 downs to get 10 yards. Getting a TD and a turnover on downs is better than a FG and a punt.
This takes guts. Coaches are much more comfortable following a conventional gameplan to keep it close and hoping to get a few breaks (officials, lucky bounce, etc.) to get them the win.
Re: Key to beating NE - "Be patient"
In all seriousness, that's just about the most perfect analogy for trying to beat the 2007 Patriots that I've heard all year. Hope you don't mind if I steal that one. 
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