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Seriously though, I see the logic in picking Chicago this week. Schefter explained it on D&C, and while he's no analyst, his logic was sound. It will be a tough week for the Patriots, they have a lot to overcome (short week, away game in crummy weather on crummy field, great opposing defense, opposing team with as much or more on the line).
But ultimately, I don't think those intangibles are enough to stop our tangible advantage in personnel.
The Patriots have some intangibles on their side too -- they've responded positively to pretty much every challenge this year. The team has character.
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"If they sought to intimidate us, to terrorize us, to shake us from ... the values that make us who we are, as Americans -- well, it should be pretty clear by now that they picked the wrong city to do it. Not here in Boston. Not here in Boston."
—President Barack Obama, April 18, 2013
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Seriously though, I see the logic in picking Chicago this week. Schefter explained it on D&C, and while he's no analyst, his logic was sound. It will be a tough week for the Patriots, they have a lot to overcome (short week, away game in crummy weather on crummy field, great opposing defense, opposing team with as much or more on the line).
But ultimately, I don't think those intangibles are enough to stop our tangible advantage in personnel.
In the first paragraph of your post you were right on the money. However outside of QB and OL where exactly do you see our TANGIBLE advantage in personnel??. Quite the contrary, it looks to me that it is Chicago who has a number of "tangible personnel" advantages at RB, more explosive WRs, kick returners - DL, Pass rushers, LBs And in the area where we have the advantage QB - it isn't as large as it was last week.
When you consider all the "intangible" obstacles you mentioned in your first paragraph, and add the personnel issues, I can't believe there aren't more "mediots" who are picking the Bears. I'd feel real good about our chances on a good field with decent weather. All those obstacles and the bad weather makes me nervous. A few lucky bounces either way will decide this game.
This is the best game of the weekend. The Patriots looked dominant in blowing out the Jets on Monday night, but the Bears have been playing well. Jay Cutler hasn't thrown a pick the past two weeks, but now he has to face Bill Belichick's defense. The Patriots might be coming off a high, which could be in play here, but I think they are the better team. Belichick gets the better of Mike Martz and his offense. Patriots 28, Bears 21
Now 9-3 and winners of five straight games, the Bears would be safely headed to the playoffs, you’d think. Then you look at what’s left on their schedule and realize they should feel anything but comfortable. Sunday’s matchup with the red-hot Patriots is followed by a road trip to play the Vikings, an all-out slugfest with the Jets and a season finale at Green Bay. Could Chicago finish the year 0-4 and find itself out of the playoffs at 9-7? Absolutely. Will it? I don’t think so. Few pundits seem to believe in these Bears, but with five touchdowns and just one interception in his past three games, I like Mr. Cutler to get to the playoffs for the first time in his five-year NFL career. It starts on Sunday with a win over the Patriots, who’ll be coming into this one on just six days’ rest after Monday night’s emotional win over the Jets. Belichick and Brady don’t tend to have many “letdown” games, but the Bears are going to be tough to beat in their own building on a late Sunday afternoon in December. In the rare home upset, I’ll take Chicago on a last-second Robbie Gould field goal. The Pick: Bears 30, Patriots 27
New England Patriots (10-2) at Chicago Bears (9-3)
It could be an awful weather day in the spaceship just off Lake Michigan, and what makes it worse for the Bears is a lightning bug named Danny Woodhead. He'll be the Pats' not-so-secret weapon, along with short stuff to the rookie tight ends. Patriots 17, Bears 14
The New England Patriots have rolled through the AFC's best -- New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers. Now they get consecutive tests against two of the NFC's best: the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers.
If the Bears beat the Pats this week –- a la Super Bowl 20 –- we'll just continue to scratch our heads on who should be the favorites for Super Bowl 45.
Game of the Week
New England Patriots (-3) at Chicago Bears
The Patriots have made their pass defense look a whole lot better with 18 interceptions, tied for most in the AFC. Jay Cutler has gone two games without being picked off, so let's just say he's due.
Prediction: Patriots 20, Bears 19
DE Julius Peppers: The $91 million pass rusher has to be all over Brady from the start, whether it's by beating left tackle Matt Light or right tackle Sebastian Vollmer. Peppers is the key to the Bears' defensive plans because they'll never be able to stand up to the Patriots' precision passing game by blitzing -- they don't blitz enough to do it effectively. Getting to Brady in a four-man rush is the only way the Bears can force him into turnovers.
Nickel Back D.J. Moore: He'll get matched Welker a lot, or sometimes Woodhead. Moore's good quickness will make him tough for both Patriots to shake on short routes. It's covering the bigger players downfield, like Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson, that causes the undersized corner problems.
QB Jay Cutler: He must continue playing more like Brady than like Rex Grossman. Cutler has thrown 57 consecutive passes without an interception. Offensive coordinator Mike Martz has swallowed his pride and had Cutler looking underneath more than downfield in recent weeks. Cutler can't afford taking big risks because New England's defense thrives on turnovers, but the unit is inexperienced and susceptible to breakdowns.
BOTTOM LINE
The Bears will fail to establish a running game and Cutler will be forced into gambling, causing mistakes that New England eventually capitalizes upon. The last game between these teams was a 17-13 trench war, but the only thing that could make this one look like that would be for Soldier Field's abysmal turf and Chicago's December weather conditions to have an impact. Instead, Brady should be able to get underneath the Bears' coverage and mix in the run and short passes enough to scrape out a win, similar to the 31-28 victory over Indianapolis.
Score: Patriots 28, Bears 23.
While Mike Martz's arrival dominated the offseason headlines, Chicago has rose to prominence this season behind a vaunted defense that is conceding just 16 points a contest. Behind acquisition Julius Peppers and a healthy Brian Urlacher the Bears have held opponents to an NFC-low 84.9 yards per game on the ground. The secondary has been just as stout, suffocating signal callers to a QB Rating of 71.1, second-best in the NFL.
However, unlike years' past where it acted as an Achilles' heel, the offense has held their own in 2010. Although the unit is far from explosive (averaging a mere 20.5 points and 300.3 yards per game), quarterback Jay Cutler and company have become extremely efficient in the past month. In five games since the Bye week, the offense is averaging 24 points while Cutler has thrown just three interceptions. A rejuvenated Matt Forte has also aided in Chicago's recent success. Failing to rush for 55 or more yards in six of the first seven games, the Bears back is averaging 79.2 on the ground during Chicago's five-game win streak.
We would be remiss in our Chicago discussion without mentioning the outside influences that have blessed the Bears. Chicago has reaped the benefits from generous schedule, as the Bears' victories have come against opponents with a composite record of 36-60 (.375 pct.). The Vikings have vastly underperformed thanks to the declining play of Brett Favre, and Detroit has been burdened with a carousel at the QB position thanks to injuries. Moreover, Chicago's victories haven't exactly been executed in dominant fashion, as six of their nine wins have been by seven points or less.
Every week WhatIfSports.com simulates thousands of NFL games. This week the New England Patriots win 62.7% of the time by an average score of 21.5-17.6. The stats in the box score below represent the average outcomes of those simulations.
NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: How good is Tom Brady? He just does everything proficiently and is in complete command of the offense. He has so many perfectly tailored weapons at his disposal that containing New England is next to impossible.
The Patriots just humiliated the Jets, and they're more than capable of doing the same thing to the Bears. And I'm not showing disrespect; Chicago's defense is prolific. I just don't see how any defense can slow down Brady right now.
If the Patriots struggle to get into the end zone, it'll be because they commit unforced errors, much like the Eagles did a couple of weeks ago (dropped touchdowns, tipped passes turned into interceptions, etc.)
The Patriots will have their inevitable letdown in Chicago and the Bears will continue to surprise us by pressuring Tom Brady(notes) in an upset victory.
I'm really happy to see this line -- not because I don't think the Pats are good, but because they're not 45-3 good.
Now, earlier in the season, the Pats followed up what was then their biggest win of the year with a stinker in Cleveland. It was probably the best thing to happen to the young team, which learned in a hurry that last week doesn't matter.
The only concern I have about the Patriots taking care of business is that Soldier Field turf. Remember what it did to Michael Vick? But Belichick is the master of preparation (soaking practice balls in practice leading up to the 2008 Oakland game comes to mind), so it won't catch the Pats off guard.
Patriots 20, Bears 14. After the drama of Monday night, it's conceivable that the Pats drop one in the snow, then win out the rest of the way. But go ahead, you pick against this team right now.
Media Predictions: Week 14, Pats at Bears
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