PatsFaninAZ

What was up with the Seau/Vrabel goal line package? It looked like a disaster twice yesterday, although Seau did get a great lead block on the first play, they just couldn't take advantage.

I don't really get the fascination with playing linebackers in these sets. I know Vrabel has done well in this situation, but we have two quality tight ends now and guys we pay alot of money to be O linemen. What's up with this?

Also, what do we make of the Patriots' decision not to try a 40 something yard field goal when they were losing by 4? Can't be great for our kicker's mental state, which is probably already getting a bit fragile. Any chance maybe he's nicked up or has a secret injury?

cstjohn17

The first formation was a disaster, bad play call. The Patriots lined up 11 men, no one was in motion, no one lined up outside the hash marks. Then they hand the ball to Evans. The Bills had 11 guys in the box, this play will never work in the NFL, it has some small chance of success in Pop Warner but not the bigs.

Don't talk about the 'secret' injury... 4th and 7 was strange but maybe they knew that if they get one more field goal it would be very hard to end up with 38 points.

PatsWickedPissah

As long as BB doesn't use Big Sey at FB again this season, I'm happy.

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WhiZa

The pats have the best 4th down percentage in the league. That's why we go for it every time on 4th and short.

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Patsfanin Philly

The 4th and 6 with about 6 minutes left was a mercy call. A straightahead handoff to Evans was an intent not to run it up. If they succeeded, fine but if not, they were not trying to rub the Bills faces in it. BB supposedly has a relationship with Jauron and there's no need to run it up.
Just my $0.02,

PatsWSB47

They wanted to score with it of course but I think they were also creating game film for future opponents to ponder on. They may cross them up by running other plays off that formation.

PatsFaninAZ

I was actually talking about the 4th and 7 in the second quarter, when we were losing by a 7-3 to score. I think the play started from about the 30 or 31, which would have been a long field goal, but one an NFL kicker has to try.

I don't have a problem with going for it on 4th down and short on the opponent's side of the field early in the game, but 4th and 7 is not really short. And, we were losing at the time.

Seems like a very low percentage play. Even if you make the first down, you're still not even in the red zone. I guess in that situation, the consequence of a missed field goal -- giving the Bills great FG position -- made it worth it for Belichick. But it's not exactly a ringing endorsement for your kicker.

As sure as I'm sitting here, we're going to need to make some 40 to 49 yarders this year to get where we want to go. In the national parity league, it's where a lot of close games are won and lost.

Gwedd

Fellers,

As much as I really dislike him, Greg Easterbrook wrote a column that laid out the math for 4th down conversion rates. In short, the closer you are to the opponents goal, the better your odds of making the 4th down rather than punting or attempting a field goal. Easterbrook ran a whole slew of scenarios and numbers he had some company crunch for him that backed up his claims. Pretty interesting read. He also commented about how often (and how succesful) the Patriots are in converting 4th downs.

It had nothing to do with concerns for the kicking game. It was BB playing the percentages, knowing that he has a good chance of converting and continuing the drive.

Respects,

TruthSeeker

It's easy. The percentages favor going for it in that situation, particularly when you have an explosive offense.

The fact that few coaches actually do go for it reveals that the Patriots are on the leading edge of the coaching curve. (Not exactly a surprise, right?)

See recent TMQ articles for details.

kurtinelson

Yet another example of BB's hubris.

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