Keegs

what makes you think we need over 30 to beat the Colts in a playoff game?

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psychoPat

PF1996

I think you're too confident given these facts...

1. The Patriots have not shown a RECENT ability to stop the Colts receivers. Also, the Patriots secondary play in that game was TYPICAL of their play all year - giving 5-10 yard cushions to receivers, allowing the receiver enough separation to make a solid catch, giving up big chunks of yards through the air. Thus, there isn't any basis to believe that things will be any different in this game - i.e. that the Colts receivers will be stopped or even contained. I hope very much that I'm wrong, but nothing about the Pats secondary play this year makes me confident that I am.

2. The Patriots inconsistent offense, primarily their inability to run the football as well as Brady's inaccuracy and increasing tendency to force the ball to/stare down certain receivers. Indy's D, is average and can be scored upon but I'm not confident that the Patriots will take advantage because they aren't runblocking well and Brady isn't playing well.

aluminum seats

Good post. I disagree with the 2nd point, as it seems overstated. Inconsistent or not, the Pats offense is putting points on the board--the Colts defense has improved, but the Pats will unquestionably score mid-20's.

Your first point is clearly the big chance for the Colts here, but this is where the lack of a consistent running game will doom Indy. The Jets were able to pass quite well against us, but in the red zone, the ability to run becomes paramount. The Colts scored TDs in the first game, I think, because Sanders was a clear weak link, having to go into the game on short notice. The basis for believing things will be different is based on the idea that the Colts will be settling for field goals tomorrow.

Patriotic Fervor

All the Patriots need is a big score early - very early - on in the game. That will have the Colts hearing the footsteps of their Patriot bogeyman.

That's all they need.

There are other ways to win, of course, but if the above scenario comes to pass, I really like their chances.

This is not to say that if this does come to pass the Colts won't play well. They very well could, but every play, every series, will have a backdrop that's just a little eerie for them, and as the game proceeds further along, could give rise to that proverbial fraction of a second where worlds collide, and games are won or lost by mysterious breeches in the time-space continuum that few see, fewer grasp, and virtually none understand.

The fate of nations has turned on less, you know....

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....and that's the way I see it!

shirtsleeve

I am confident, too. As long as the refs let the teams play, as they have so far in the post season, and not like last year, the Pats will win solidly.

Big News! The Dolts D really is all smoke and mirrrors! When a team puts 8 or 9 in the box, and the morons on the other side run into it with standard blocking schemes, D'uh! The Pats will exploit this sham for what it is.

On D, I see us going nickel and dime all day, giving up short and medium runs in order to hamstring the Dolts passing attack. If this team scores more than 20 on us I will be shocked! That doesn't mean that they wont move the ball. But scoring is going to be tough sledding against us.

IcyPatriot

I am very confident and I think that is okay. I think we have a great chance to beat the Colts if we execute properly. No need for smoke and mirrors or stifling game plans ... we can beat them the old fashioned way.

However, it would not surprise me if they beat us and nor would it bother me. If we have a bad day I'd rather it's the Colts than any other team if they win. There's no shame in losing to a good team ... so if it's the Colts I'm okay with that ....

I just think they only have @ 10% > 15% chance of winning this game. Injuries to our secondary, turnovers, tipped passes is the only hope they have.

aluminum seats

It's interesting to look at the play-by-play of the pats/colts game earlier this year. Look at the just the drive recap, with a couple of notes:

Pats INT (on a first down from Indy's 34, on the 10th play of the drive)

Indy TD (7-0)

Pats TD (7-7)

Indy TD (14-7)

Pats TD (14-14)

Indy FG (after a kickoff return to Pats 29) (17-14)

Pats INT (after driving to Indy 40)

HALFTIME (17-14)

Indy missed FG

Dillon Fumble on Pats 31

Indy Punt

Pats Punt (passed on 3 of 4 plays)

Indy TD (24-14)

Pats FG (after 3 straight incompletions, out of the shotgun, from the Indy 31) (24-17)

Indy fumble on kickoff (at Indy 43)

Pats missed FG (after Dillon for 9, Maroney for 4, and 3/4 passes)

Indy INT

Pats INT

Indy FG (27-17)

Pats FG (27-20)

Indy missed FG

Pats INT

Bottom line, the Pats D struggled against the pass, after Harrison went down in the first drive. Offensively, the Patriots clearly went away from the run when the game was still well within reach. Conversely, after the Colts scored the first 3 times they had the ball, only scored 10 points the rest of the way (granted, helped by missed FGs). But down 7 in the second half, both times after the Colts turned the ball over the Pats got pass happy, and that was ballgame.

aluminum seats

BTW, am I the only one who thinks Vinitieri's gonna miss one? I hope the Pats are all real nice to him before the game--the one thing that can take a competitor out of his game is a lot of love from the ex-team, like Pedro at Fenway this year.

AndyJohnson

I disagree. Of course th eplays that occurred in those games dont impact this one, but they are a very good example of the capabilities of the teams.

Look at it this way. If Josh Beckett has a 1.50 ERA over the last 3 years against the Orioles, none of those stats will be included in the next game, but there is a very strong indication that he will do well. No guarantee, but evidence that Josh Beckett has an advantage against those hitters.

Its the same thing here. Coming up short in big games in the past isnt added to the scoreboard in the future, but it is an indication of a flaw within that team.
The 'chokes' don't get put on the scoreboard tomorrow, but the REASONS THAT CAUSED THEM are present, and those reasons recurring have a lot to do with tomorrows game.

"Being clutch" is an intangible quality in a team. Its not tangible because having it or not having shows up in different areas on different teams. (For example, bad running teams struggling in the playoffs can be quantified by looking at running stats. There is no stat to look at to quantify clutch ability) But it IS very real. My opinion is it eminates from coaching and preparation. Think of the difference in any line of work between good and mediocre employees. Most times, "experience" is cited. Experience really boils down to having been in the situation before and gotten through it, so you aren't flustered and get the job done to your capability.
While the Patriots and Colts have big game experience, the Patriots experience has been to come out on top, while the Colts has been to fail.

Everyone draws on experience in whatever situation they are in. The Patriots will draw on the experience of succeeding, while the Colts are drawing on the experience of failing. There is no way in the world, you can convince me that given that the Patriots are not more likely to play to the maximum of thier capability in those clutch spots than the Colts are.
Doesn't mean the Colts will choke and the Patriots won't, but it certainly slants the likelihood of it.