kurtinelson

Here's a thread for anyone who likes to discuss NFL picks. I'm a slightly better than mediocre 17-12-2 on the season against the spread and on over/unders.

Here's who I like this week in bold (My picks are listed in the order of my confidence in them):

Pittsburg (-2.5) at Atlanta - I think Atlanta's run defense is suspect. Pittsburg is ready to make a run. Although they have a tendency to suck playing in a dome, I still think Pittsburg will be too much for Atlanta to handle.

Carolina (+3) at Cincinatti - Cincy can't protect Palmer. Their offense is struggling and their defense has done a piss poor job of tackling. Not sure why the odds makers are giving Carolina 3 points in this one.

Denver(-4.5) at Cleveland - I am really impressed with Denver's defense. When they read run, there are usually 5 to 6 players in on the tackle, but what is equally impressive to me is how fast their linebackers are able to drop into coverage when they read pass. Cleveland may be able to keep it close, but they won't cover.

NY Giants (+3) at Dallas - The Giant's running game is impressive. Their defensive ends should be able to get after Bledsoe and force turnovers.

Denver vs Cleveland over 31.5 - Despite my gushing over Denver's defense, this point total is too low not too take a chance on the over.

San Diego (-5.5) at Kansas City - San Diego is clearly the better team, the question is whether or not they will implode at Arrowhead. San Diego's defense is the real deal.

Arizona (-3) at Oakland - Oakland has yet to cover against the spread and they flat out stink.

Your comments/criticisms or other picks you like this week are welcomed.

__________________
"Tonight a dynasty is born" - Ricky Proehl before the start of Super Bowl XXXVI


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kurtinelson

Sorry. Its Week 7.

__________________
"Tonight a dynasty is born" - Ricky Proehl before the start of Super Bowl XXXVI


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OldEnglandPatriot

Hi Kurt. You might be interested in the thread 'picks at spread', started by PonyExpress. He, I and intermittent others have been picking all games against the spread since the start of the season and are doing fairly well.

My thoughts on your picks... I would consider backing three of those with money, but haven't actually done so. The Steelers should win at Atlanta yes but somehow I don't have enough faith in them yet; the Panthers are tempting but I left them alone because the Bengals are in desperation alley as far as their desire to win this game; and the Cards should win at Oakland but I'm wary of giving up points on them on the road after such a crushing loss six days ago.

I think it's a really tough week for finding good value bets. My favourite pick for the week is the Redskins getting 9 points at Indianapolis.