Patsfanin Philly

1982 21 Denver Gerald Willhite RB San Jose State
1983 21 Pittsburgh Gabriel Rivera NT Texas Tech
1984 21 Kansas City John Alt T Iowa
1985 21 L.A. Rams Jerry Gray CB Texas
1986 21 Cincinnati Tim McGee WR Tennessee
1987 21 N.Y. Jets Roger Vick RB Texas A&M
1988 21 Cleveland Clifford Charlton OLB Florida
1989 21 L.A. Rams Bill Hawkins DE Miami
1990 21 Pittsburgh Eric Green TE Liberty
1991 21 Kansas City Harvey Williams RB Louisiana State
1992 21 New Orleans Vaughn Dunbar RB Indiana
1993 21 Minnesota Robert Smith RB Ohio State
1994 21 Detroit Johnnie Morton WR Southern California
1995 21 Chicago Rashaan Salaam RB Colorado
1996 21 Seattle Pete Kendall G Boston College
1997 21 Jacksonville Renaldo Wynn DE Notre Dame
1998 21 Minnesota Randy Moss WR Marshall
1999 21 Arizona L.J. Shelton T Eastern Michigan
2000 21 Kansas City Sylvester Morris WR Jackson State
2001 21 Buffalo Nate Clements CB Ohio State
2002 21 New England Daniel Graham TE Colorado
2003 21 Cleveland Jeff Faine C Notre Dame
2004 21 New England Vince Wilfork DT Miami
2005 21 Jacksonville Matt Jones WR Arkansas

Pre- 2000, other than Moss, R. Smith and Roger Vick, many of these guys
disappeared faster than a person in the Witness Protection Program. I suppose that I expected better results from such a high pick....

17/24 were offensive players and 11/24 were skill positions. I know, it has absolutely no relevance but.........
If the Pats do as well as they have the last two times they had the #21 pick
(even years only)they'll be okay...

primetime

John Alt was a good OT for over a decade and Johnnie Morton has had a solid if unspectacular career. McGee was a good receiver for a number of years too. There have been the misses... Dunbar, Salaam, Morris... but what do you expect? It's the draft.

SamBamsFan

Eric Green had some pretty good years w/ Pitt. I remember @ one time he was supposed to redefine the TE position. Then he went from a monster, to monstrous & basically ate himself out of the league.
Johnny Morton had great years in Detroit, then left to KC & was never quite the same. Decent career.

PatsFanInVa

I love this list. I just did a quick n dirty assessment on another thread, of the Pats' last 4 years of drafts. For all the talk about their middle-round prowess, they kick serious butt in their first round selections. Maybe that's part of the value approach - getting somebody solid, good, and likely to make it in the system, with fair upside, over somebody hyped to kingdom come at a "skill position," with limitless upside, with your round 1 pick.

Seymour is called the "best D lineman in the game" and is still knocked for the unspectacular nature of what he's paid to do (that is, fair to middling sack totals, getting himself double and triple teamed every down, and always being where he's supposed to be, whether run or pass.)

Typical Pats pick.. he just plain plays good football. The trouble is, he's unaware how many fantasy league championships he's singlehandedly lost (much like Tom Brady.)

PFnV

Patsfanin Philly

I know it's hit or miss but I guess I expect that high a pick to be a hit. Otherwise you've just wasted a pick and dug a hole. As one of the previous posters wrote, it's easier to use the value grouping than to fall in love with one player and risk the downside of it not panning out.

arrellbee

You are so right.

There are two very crucial things to consider when all of these draftee names are bandied about with fervor and hope:
- The most CRITICAL thing about a 1st round pick (and almost as critical with 2nd round) is to get a player who WILL absolutely contribute and will almost certainly be a starter.
- Even in the first round, sober reflection and analysis of past years will show that there is probably almost a 65% chance that a 1st round draftee will NOT be a solid NFL player much less a starter or star. And yet there is a nonsensical rosy-glasses drooling over every single player who is slated to go in the first round - not only by the fans but the teams AS WELL !! !! !! It's truly amazing how many first round picks are expensive wastes.

Since 2001, Belichick & Pioli have scored big in drafting solid players - perhaps even MORE successful than a lot of the fans realize.
---------------
The 1st round draft picks are the most important overall for the Pats. You only have to look at the players selected in rounds 1 thru 4. There are as many or more starters in the 1st round alone as there are altogether in rounds 2 thru 4.

!st round: ALL 6 on the team and ALL starters: Seymour, Warren, Graham, Wilfork, Watson, Mankins.

2nd round: ALL 5 on the team and 3 starters: Wilson, Branch, Light and Bethel Johnson and Marquise Hill.

3rd round: Only 4 picks but 3 still on the team. Potentially two starters in the future: Hobbs, Kaczur, and Gus Scott. Obviously Hobbs and Kaczur were important contributors and starters what with the injuries last year. Brock Williams is gone.

4th round: Gets MUCH more problematic. That's why I say rounds 1 thru 3 are so crucial. Only 4 out of 9 still on the roster - less than 50%. But, 4th round is still important. Jarvis Green and Asante Samuel are important players. Klecko and Sanders are perhaps borderline - but there have been any number of borderline players who became really important contributors later. Players who didn't work out: Davey, Cobb, Holloway, Kenyatta Jones

Belichick, Pioli, et al do an amazing job of drafting solid players in the top rounds.

PatsFanInVa

The rep of "finding value in the middle and late rounds" is misunderstood.

It's the difference of hitting on one out of 3 (finding contributors, not stars) versus 1 out of 10. But the math tells you, even if you value the contributor almost as much as the star, that your first 3 rounds (higher probability of a hit) is where you're getting the "blue chips."

By the way, A, when I did the breakdown, I counted "confirmed busts," leaving guys like Bethel and Klecko off the hook for the moment... for the last 4 years, the Pats are averaging a little over 2 per draft, with a total of a little under 8 picks per year - somewhere in the 70% "hit" range FOR ALL ROUNDS. Now granted, that leaves the last couple of drafts off the hook in large part, since you haven't proven or disproven much... but, as we say in Virginia... DAYUM.

If your 65% stat for first rounders is an actual stat, not a guesstimate, these guys aren't just good at this, they're off the scale.

By the way - guys like Klecko and B Johnson? I bet they're somebody else's starters one day, if the Pats let them go. The price of leadership.

PFnV